{"id":242491,"date":"2026-05-06T12:57:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T16:57:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=242491"},"modified":"2026-05-06T13:07:05","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T17:07:05","slug":"can-big-tech-keep-carrying-the-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/can-big-tech-keep-carrying-the-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Big Tech Keep Carrying the Market?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Big Tech earnings are powering markets higher, fueled by aggressive AI investment and surprisingly strong growth but are valuations starting to matter again? We break down the tension between earnings momentum and rising rate risks and what upcoming jobs data could mean for the market\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Can Big Tech Keep Carrying the Market?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=jj7gq-1ab8a83-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-380\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 380<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hi, everyone. This is Jeff Praissman with the Interactive Brokers Podcast, and\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0my pleasure to welcome back to the podcast studio Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading. Hey, Scott. How are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeff, we are busy. How about yourself?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m\u00a0good.\u00a0I&#8217;m\u00a0good. It is busy out there. And I mean, you know, we are in the middle of earnings season, and last week, you know, felt like earnings and the Fed were pulling the markets in opposite directions. What was the single biggest driver of market performance over\u00a0the, you know, the\u00a0past five days? And, you know, why did investors\u00a0ultimately lean\u00a0into it?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You know what?\u00a0It was definitely earnings, and it was earnings from the big guys.\u00a0And to me, the most important part was we still saw this just massive amount of\u00a0CapEx\u00a0spending, right?\u00a0And for the most part, it was well-received across the board, with maybe the exception of Meta.\u00a0But the market really bought into the AI growth monetization, and, you know,\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0been an issue\u00a0maybe in\u00a0the last several quarters with how much these companies are spending. But boy, oh boy, you look at the likes of the big guys there\u2014especially Alphabet was\u00a0probably the\u00a0standout one there\u2014but you look at how much\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0spending here, and the market\u00a0seems to embrace\u00a0it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah.\u00a0I mean, big tech was definitely back in focus last week.\u00a0And, you know, do you think valuations are starting to matter again then?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think they\u00a0are.\u00a0But if you look at the blended earnings growth rate for the S&amp;P 500 for the first quarter\u2014it actually increased just tremendously, 15% to 27%.\u00a0And if 27%, if that\u00a0stays as\u00a0the actual growth rate for the quarter, that&#8217;s\u00a0gonna\u00a0be the highest year-over-year rate that\u00a0we&#8217;ve\u00a0seen in, I think, five years or so. Now, is there a concern that, you know, that growth can continue? Sure. But right\u00a0now\u00a0it is\u00a0pedal\u00a0to\u00a0the metal.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tech and stocks are obviously on everyone&#8217;s mind. We\u00a0can&#8217;t\u00a0forget\u00a0about, you know,\u00a0commodities, especially oil, right? And, you know, how much of last week&#8217;s volatility was driven by the oil market?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You know\u2014oh, sorry, go\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, no, go ahead. I was just\u00a0gonna\u00a0say, like, you know, should investors be paying, you know, closer\u2014even closer\u2014attention to this inflation spillover coming from energy?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, the inflation spillover is definitely going to be an issue.\u00a0It\u00a0hasn&#8217;t\u00a0really hit the market yet.\u00a0We&#8217;re\u00a0gonna\u00a0see\u00a0that maybe\u00a0in another month or two.\u00a0But, you know, Jeff, it&#8217;s\u2014and I&#8217;ve had this conversation\u2014it&#8217;s really interesting because I think the market is becoming somewhat numb from the noise.\u00a0You know, if this was a month ago and we would&#8217;ve, you know, got another headline of an escalation or something like\u00a0that,\u00a0we\u00a0would&#8217;ve\u00a0seen VIX over 25. We\u00a0would&#8217;ve\u00a0seen a bigger sell-off. And the\u00a0more and more\u00a0this happens, the\u00a0less and less\u00a0reaction there is in the marketplace. However, we can&#8217;t take our eyes off of what is happening to oil and eventually what&#8217;s\u00a0gonna\u00a0happen to inflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I was\u00a0gonna\u00a0say, and, you know, rates stayed on hold, but the bond markets didn&#8217;t exactly relax, did they?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>No.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah. How should investors interpret the Fed&#8217;s tone from last week&#8217;s meeting? And, you know, what does it say about, you know, the potential path of rates from here?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think we\u00a0need to be a little concerned about it. I think, you know, the bond market is bigger than the equity market. Fixed income typically is\u00a0kind of a\u00a0precursor, maybe, to\u00a0what happens, even though the equity market has just shrugged this off.\u00a0But, you know, we&#8217;re seeing the Fed actually probably shift their bias to maybe raising rates.\u00a0In fact, I think if we go out to March of next year now, the CME\u00a0FedWatch\u00a0Tool is pricing it better than a 50% chance of a hike, not a reduction in rates.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And, you know, looking ahead at the next seven days, the\u00a0calendar&#8217;s\u00a0really busy. You know, what upcoming economic data points\u2014whether\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0jobs, inflation, or, you know, services activity\u2014what do you think has the greatest potential to move the markets?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-6\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think the jobs number that we get on Friday\u2014and I think the potential is actually to see rates move higher.\u00a0The expectation is, I think, somewhere in the range of 60,000 to 65,000. If we beat that\u2014and we beat\u00a0that substantially, which\u00a0would be a good thing, right? We\u00a0wanna\u00a0see job creation\u2014boy, that is really going to put pressure on the Fed, really probably shift that bias even further to a potential rate hike.\u00a0So\u00a0I think we\u00a0really need to watch that number.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-7\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Scott, this has been great, as always. For our listeners, you can find more from Scott Bauer at prospertrading.com. Also on our website, ibkr.com. Click on Education. You can find all our past podcasts, webinars, articles. And, you\u00a0know, until\u00a0next time, Scott, thanks for coming by.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-7\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks, Jeff.\u00a0Always\u00a0a pleasure.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-8\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>All right.\u00a0<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Big Tech earnings are powering markets higher, fueled by aggressive AI investment and surprisingly strong growth but are valuations starting to matter again? We break down the tension between earnings momentum and rising rate risks and what upcoming jobs data could mean for the market\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":242492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[14545,15481,20379,21494,21493,21329,3221,21349,5753,6988,21495,14215,21346,12835,2067,6014,10995,3761,21492,21491,21496,11121,11838,19507,4232],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":{"0":"post-242491","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-ai-stocks","10":"tag-artificial-intelligence-investing","11":"tag-big-tech-stocks","12":"tag-bond-market-signals","13":"tag-capex-spending","14":"tag-earnings-season-analysis","15":"tag-economic-data","16":"tag-equity-market-trends","17":"tag-federal-reserve-policy","18":"tag-financial-markets","19":"tag-growth-vs-value","20":"tag-inflation-outlook","21":"tag-interest-rates-outlook","22":"tag-investing-strategy","23":"tag-jobs-report","24":"tag-macroeconomics","25":"tag-market-volatility","26":"tag-nonfarm-payrolls","27":"tag-oil-prices-impact","28":"tag-rate-hike-expectations","29":"tag-sp-500-earnings","30":"tag-stock-market-analysis","31":"tag-stock-market-outlook","32":"tag-tech-sector-analysis","33":"tag-treasury-yields","34":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","35":"contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Can Big Tech Keep Carrying the Market? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242491\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can Big Tech Keep Carrying the Market? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Big Tech earnings are powering markets higher, fueled by aggressive AI investment and surprisingly strong growth but are valuations starting to matter again? 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