{"id":242380,"date":"2026-05-04T12:59:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T16:59:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=242380"},"modified":"2026-05-04T15:37:23","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T19:37:23","slug":"new-home-sales-expected-to-recover-tomorrow-morning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/new-home-sales-expected-to-recover-tomorrow-morning\/","title":{"rendered":"New Home Sales Expected to Recover Tomorrow Morning: May 4, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market believe that new home sales improved as the first quarter progressed. January\u2019s 587k seasonally adjusted annualized units was the lowest in over three years, or since October 2022, but expectations signal a recovery from those depths. Tomorrow morning\u2019s prints will feature both the February and March periods, as the release schedule was adversely impacted by the longest government shutdown in history a few months ago. For February, there\u2019s a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=751047539%7C20260505%7C575000%7CFebruary%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">61%<\/a> likelihood of a figure exceeding 575k, as well as 85% odds of a result greater than 550k and a 51% probability of a statistic lower than 600k. And for March, a 34% chance exists of a number north of 640k, alongside a 76% prospect of a print higher than 590k and a 96% possibility that the publication won\u2019t exceed 690k. Similarly, the 38 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll carried a March median estimate of 650k as well as minimum and maximum projections of 548k and 700k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"136\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-9-1100x136.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-242382 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-9-1100x136.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-9-700x87.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-9-300x37.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-9-768x95.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-9-1536x191.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-9.png 1685w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/136;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"130\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-1100x130.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-242381 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-1100x130.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-700x83.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-300x36.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-768x91.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-1536x182.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10.png 1690w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/130;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"130\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-1100x130.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-242383 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-1100x130.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-700x83.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-300x36.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-768x91.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10-1536x182.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-10.png 1690w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/130;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"986\" height=\"1126\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-11.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-242384 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-11.png 986w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-11-700x799.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-11-300x343.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-11-768x877.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 986px) 100vw, 986px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 986px; aspect-ratio: 986\/1126;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>May 4, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market believe that new home sales improved as the first quarter progressed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":220585,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,6,8,3],"tags":[1979],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-242380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-north-america","category-region","category-traders-insight","tag-home-sales","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Home Sales Expected to Recover Tomorrow Morning: May 4, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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