{"id":242277,"date":"2026-05-01T09:47:54","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T13:47:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=242277"},"modified":"2026-05-01T12:56:20","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T16:56:20","slug":"dems-and-gop-essentially-tied-for-senate-majority-gubernatorial-races","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/dems-and-gop-essentially-tied-for-senate-majority-gubernatorial-races\/","title":{"rendered":"Dems and GOP Essentially Tied For Senate Majority, Gubernatorial Races: May 1, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The midterm elections are approaching this November and the Democratic party has been improving its odds throughout the year in Senate, House and Gubernatorial races. The most significant shift has been in the Senate, as the GOP had a 73% chance of maintaining its majority at the beginning of 2026, but those probabilities are now down to a coin-flip<\/a>, as the Democrats have caught up. The House of Representatives has been less eventful, although the Democrats started the year with a 75% likelihood that has expanded to as high as 87%<\/a> in recent days. Conversely, the governorship contests have been tighter, with the blue coalition expected to win 16 states while the red alliance is projected to be victorious in 14 of them. Meanwhile, six states are tossups, with both sides of the political aisle neck and neck in those matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 30, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The midterm elections are approaching this November and the Democratic party has been improving its odds throughout the year in Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":213985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[21462],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-242277","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-mid-term-elections","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDems and GOP 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