Durable goods orders crushed expectations last month as the business investment category jumped to a 69-month high that was established during the pandemic recovery in June 2020. The headline figure depicting a 0.8% month over month (m\/m) climb beat the 0.5% projected and reversed February\u2019s 1.2% decline. Corporate capital expenditures expanded 3.3% m\/m, well ahead of the 0.5% estimate and the prior month\u2019s 1.6%. Defense aircraft, computers\/electronics and motor vehicles were the strongest gainers across individual categories, growing transactions 16.9%, 3.7% and 1.3% m\/m, while the machinery, appliance, primary metals, other and fabricated metal products segments rose less than 1%. Passenger jet purchases were the most significant drag, falling 21.1% during the period. Building permit issuance and housing starts marked 24- and 15-month highs during the last two months of the first quarter although overall momentum remained near trends as elevated mortgage rates, heavy valuations, pricey materials and labor shortages prevented much progress. This morning\u2019s print reflected February and March figures since data collection and analysis were delayed due to the extended government shutdown. Generally speaking, the multifamily segment performed better than singles as the rental market continues to be stronger than the one for purchasers. Macroeconomic risks are significant at this juncture, but stock market bulls are hoping that a rosy path ahead for artificial intelligence can continue to offset cyclical weakness. If earnings, capital expenditures and outlooks are buoyant, investors could remain sanguine even as the threat of a slowdown in overall activity, loftier borrowing costs and widening credit spreads raise eyebrows. After a historic advance amidst equity benchmarks still near records, this afternoon will be monumental regarding monetary policy, the path for interest rates and whether the rally in technology has further room to run. Meanwhile, one could argue that the landscape is worse today than it was at the market lows of March 30 and that the S&P 500 hasn\u2019t had a 10% correction this year despite the substantial dangers right in front of us. Against this backdrop, the final days of April and the beginning of May could offer the bears an opportunity to at least retest some of the closely watched intermediate- and longer-term moving averages on the major benchmarks as softening profit expectations, soaring bond yields and a new Fed Chair spark meaningful volatility in the current quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Australia\u2019s headline inflation picked up in March according to both year-over-year (y\/y) and m\/m results of the Consumer Price Index, although a trimmed measure that excludes items with volatile prices was slightly less severe. The overall Consumer Price Index was up 1.1% m\/m and 4.1% y\/y. In February, the indicator depicted no monthly change and a 3.7% y\/y jump. For the m\/m print, transportation costs led the gains, climbing 9.2% in response to higher gasoline prices caused by the Iran War. Other categories that became more expensive and the extent of their changes were as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, the following categories became less expensive as stated:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trimmed mean inflation, which excludes items with the largest price increases, repeated February\u2019s 3.3% y\/y rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Bank of Canada decided today to maintain its key interest rate at 2.25% but warned that inflation could peak at 3% before easing to the organization\u2019s 2% target next year. Earlier this month, Canada\u2019s CPI depicted prices climbing 2.4 y\/y. When announcing the decision to hold, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the surge in gasoline prices and elevated food costs are likely to push up headline inflation, but he cautioned that the outlook is heavily dependent on the Iran War and associated oil prices. Looking ahead, the bank left its GDP growth estimate unchanged. It believes the economy will expand by 1.2% this year and 1.6% in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell 2.9 points to 93.5 in the European Union this month with weakness occurring across various metrics. Separately, the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) fell 4 points to 93.2. Within the ESI, consumer confidence and views of managers in services and retail trade deteriorated, although confidence in construction and industry was fairly stable. Confidence in the services sector sank 3.4 points with past business situation and demand in the past and expected demand all worsening. Retailers, meanwhile, lowered their expectations for the future business situation, causing the sector\u2019s overall score to sink 1.7 points. Regarding consumers, confidence fell four points, a result of weaker results for households\u2019 past and future financial situations, intentions to make major purchases and expectations about the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Continued disagreements between Washington and Tehran are prolonging the Strait of Hormuz blockade, sending WTI crude north of $107 this morning as commodity traders worry about a dire supply outlook. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223180,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,12711,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[570,1925,40],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-242197","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","9":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-inflation","17":"tag-iran","18":"tag-oil","19":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"Business](\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/Picture1-April-29.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nHousing Activity Picked Up in First Quarter<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"Housing](\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/April-29-.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nBulls Hope Mag 7 Enthusiasm Can Ignore Macro Risks<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
International Roundup<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Gasoline Fuels Price Pressures in Australia<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
Bank of Canada Holds Rate, Warns of Inflation Risks<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Economic Sentiment Falls in Europe<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n