{"id":242195,"date":"2026-04-29T13:09:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T17:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=242195"},"modified":"2026-04-29T15:52:49","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T19:52:49","slug":"consider-yeses-no-on-tomorrow-mornings-eu-cpi-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/consider-yeses-no-on-tomorrow-mornings-eu-cpi-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Consider \u201cYeses\u201d, \u201cNo\u201d on Tomorrow Morning\u2019s EU CPI, GDP: April 29, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reflect a rise from 2.6% to 2.9% in light of significant energy cost pressures that have lifted the critical gauge. Meanwhile, a beat to the upside is more likely than a downside miss, in my opinion, and the consensus agrees as the maximum projected value is at 3.5% across the 41 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters survey. However, in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 2.7%<\/a> and 2.8%<\/a> are significantly undervalued at $0.69 and $0.29 in my view, and should be closer to $0.85 and $0.65, in consideration of the fact that an in-line result at 2.9%, or a figure arriving ahead of expectations, would deliver $1.00 back to investors throughout both contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Prices<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EU GDP Still Expanding Nonetheless<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The eurozone\u2019s economic growth is expected to expand at a similar rate of 0.2% or 0.3% in the first quarter as the fourth, meanwhile, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market prices a result ahead of 0.1%<\/a> at 81% while a number that fails to exceed 0.4% carries a likelihood of 79%. The 42 forecasters in the monthly Reuters survey are at a median of 0.2%, amidst minimum and maximum projections of 0.1% and 0.3%. I like the \u201cNo\u201d at 0.4%, which appears undervalued in my opinion, since a statistic of 0.5% is highly unlikely at this juncture considering the continent\u2019s slow activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

US PCE Inflation Expected Above 3.4%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow\u2019s US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is expected to rise from 2.8% to above 3.4% with a 57%<\/a> likelihood, according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market. A 3.4% result would be the highest figure since the 3.4% in September 2023, however, the consensus estimate is at 3.5%, and that would be the loftiest statistic going back to May of 2023, almost 3 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

US Economy and Labor Market Expected Strong However<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The weekly economic index and initial unemployment claims are expected to reflect robust conditions across the US landscape, however, with the Interactive Brokers prediction market projecting a number around 2.53% for the former indicator and roughly 212k for the latter, results that would remain near recent publications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Baltic Dry Index Rising for Obvious Reasons<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Baltic Dry Index is expected to reflect another increase on a month over month basis as the cost of shipping has become more expensive in light of significant energy price pressures. Against this backdrop Interactive Brokers prediction market sees an 88%<\/a> chance of a result ahead of 2,550 and a 78% probability of a statistic arriving at or below 2,700. For context, the indicator was at 2,148, 2,117, and 1,995 at the ends of January, February and March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SORA Expected Above 0.8%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

After exceeding 0.8% for nine days in a row and falling below that threshold just one time in 2026, the Interactive Brokers prediction market prices an 84% chance that the level will be exceeded tomorrow. Given tightening financial conditions around the world and mounting inflation, the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> here is undervalued in my opinion and should cost around $0.94.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 29, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reflect a rise from 2.6% to 2.9%, in light of significant energy cost pressures that have lifted the critical 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