{"id":242183,"date":"2026-04-29T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=242183"},"modified":"2026-04-30T03:33:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T07:33:25","slug":"buckling-up-for-a-potentially-big-afternoon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/buckling-up-for-a-potentially-big-afternoon\/","title":{"rendered":"Buckling Up for a Potentially Big Afternoon"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It is hard to imagine an afternoon that combines more potentially market-moving events within the span of just over two hours.  We learn the outcome of an FOMC meeting at 2PM ET, witness Jerome Powell\u2019s likely final press conference as Fed Chair a half-hour later, then after 4PM we get quarterly earnings reports from four \u201cMag7\u201d stocks: Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).  In theory, this can lead to a volatile afternoon.  The reality might differ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is difficult to expect many fireworks emanating from the FOMC meeting.  Market expectations for a rate move are essentially nil — the IBKR ForecastTrader contract<\/a> for \u201cWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in April 2026?\u201d is 99% \u201cYes\u201d.   There is always the possibility that some of the Chair\u2019s comments at the post-meeting press conference can move markets, but even that prospect seems remote today.  This morning we learned<\/a> that the Senate Banking Committee approved Kevin Warsh\u2019s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, so it is all but inevitable that today\u2019s meeting will be Powell\u2019s last as Chair.  Today\u2019s presser is likely to sound more like a valedictory address than a set of comments about future monetary intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drama is more likely to involve questions about whether he stays on the Board of Governors until that term expires in January 2028.  Considering that the Attorney General left open the possibility of reopening a case against him, it seems likely<\/a> that he will be the first former Chair to remain on the Board since Mariner Eccles (whose name is on the building in question) did so in 1948. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Options on the S&P 500 (SPX) imply that traders are relatively unconcerned about the prospects for fireworks during the rest of the week (in addition to the four key stocks mentioned above, Apple (AAPL) reports after tomorrow\u2019s close).  For options expiring on Friday, the IBKR Probability Lab shows a peak probability for a move to the 7200 level, about 1% above the current level.  Perhaps the logic is that if the index has so far been able to ignore another leg up in oil futures and yields \u2013 SPX is only down slightly despite WTI (CL) and Brent (COIL) futures both up another 5% today and a 5 basis point bump in 10-year yields\u2013 then imagine how well the index can do if those take a breather. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup>, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At-money volatility is relatively elevated at 1%, but that seems to indicate reasonable caution rather than concern.  Near-term skew is relatively steep on this week\u2019s options, both to the downside AND the upside, though the curves look relatively normal in upcoming weeks.  In theory, if just under 20% of the index\u2019s market capitalization moves substantially in one direction or another, that can lead to a highly outsized index move.  In practice, we often see moves of this nature roughly balance each other out.  That was the case in January, when double-digit up and down moves in META and MSFT, respectively, roughly canceled each other out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for SPX Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup> (top), May 8th<\/sup> (middle), May 15th<\/sup> (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we look at the individual stocks that are due to report today, generally speaking, there is a bit more risk aversion, but also a relative lack of outright concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AMZN shows a peak probability in the $258-$260 region, about 2% below the current stock price.  Skews are remarkably flat roughly 20% above and below the current stock price, which shows no particular bias or exceptional risk perceptions.  The 7.5% at-money implied volatility for options expiring Friday is a bit above the 5.62% average of AMZN\u2019s last six post-earnings moves (-5.55%, +9.58%, -8.27%, -0.12%, -4.05%, +6.19%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for AMZN Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup>, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for AMZN Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup> (purple), May 8th<\/sup> (peach), May 15th<\/sup> (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GOOGL options show a similar setup.  The peak probability is in the $345-$348 range, about 1.5% below the current price, and skews are flattish, though with a slight upward bias, for a wide range around the current price.   A key difference is that the at-money daily volatility for this week\u2019s options is a relatively elevated 5.6% compared to the six-quarter average of 2.65% (-0.54%, +2.52%, +1.02%, +1.68%, -7.29%, +2.82%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for GOOGL Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup>, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for GOOGL Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup> (purple), May 8th<\/sup> (peach), May 15th<\/sup> (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Probability Lab shows more risk aversion in META options.  The peak probability is in the $642-$645 range, about 4% below the current stock price.  Nonetheless, skews are relatively flat for this stock as well, and the 7.5% at-money volatility is commensurate with the average of META\u2019s last six post-earnings moves, but well below its moves after the last three quarterly reports (+10.4%, -11.33%, +11.25%, +4.23%, +1.55%, -4.09%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for META Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup>, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for META Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup> (purple), May 8th<\/sup> (peach), May 15th<\/sup> (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to MSFT, once again we see a peak probability below the current stock price, this time around the $415 strike, which is about 2% below that stock\u2019s current price.  However, the generally flattish skew shows a dip in below-market options and a boost to above-market strikes, indicating hopes that the recent bounce could continue after today\u2019s report.  The at-money daily volatility of 7% implies a post-earnings move that is a bit above the six-quarter average of 6.12%, but traders certainly remember last quarter\u2019s outsized decline (-9.99%, -2.92%, +3.95%, +7.63+, -6.18%, -6.05%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for MSFT Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup>, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for MSFT Options Expiring May 1st<\/sup> (blue), May 8th<\/sup> (purple), May 15th<\/sup> (peach)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is one key sector that also bears watching this afternoon: semiconductors.  Once again, we have a semiconductor stock with a big rally after beating consensus EPS and raising guidance.  The 12% jump in Seagate (STX) is leading to gains in other storage chip makers and allowing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) to break its two-day losing streak.  But SOX\u2019s recent 18-day winning streak and 40% jump loom large over this afternoon\u2019s earnings.  If these AI hyperscalers commit to maintaining or raising their spending plans, then SOX should respond positively.  If these companies appear to be wavering in their plans to spend billions on artificial intelligence hardware, then the stunning recent rally in semis and other related stocks could be on shaky ground.  Stay tuned this afternoon!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is hard to imagine an afternoon that combines more potentially market-moving events within the span of just over two hours.\u00a0 We learn the outcome of an FOMC meeting at 2PM ET, witness Jerome Powell\u2019s likely final press conference as Fed Chair a half-hour later, then after 4PM we get quarterly earnings reports from four \u201cMag7\u201d stocks: Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).\u00a0 In theory, this can lead to a volatile afternoon.\u00a0 The reality might differ.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":242198,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-242183","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBuckling Up for a Potentially Big Afternoon<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It is hard to imagine an afternoon that combines 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