{"id":242156,"date":"2026-04-29T11:32:46","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T15:32:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=242156"},"modified":"2026-04-30T13:15:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T17:15:12","slug":"is-this-the-most-important-earnings-week-of-the-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-this-the-most-important-earnings-week-of-the-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Is This the Most Important Earnings Week of the Year?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Is this the most important earnings week of the year or the start of a new market regime? As Big Tech reports roll in, we unpack the surprising rise in volatility, booming demand for upside exposure and how AI is reshaping the outlook for the Nasdaq 100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-audio\"><audio controls src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/midweekpod-20260428-kevin_final_disclosures_mixdown.mp3\"><\/audio><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-377\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 377<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome everybody.&nbsp;We&#8217;re&nbsp;going to record this midweek minute a little early.&nbsp;It&#8217;s Tuesday afternoon coming into the close.&nbsp;This is Andrew Wilkinson at Interactive Brokers, and I am joined by Kevin&nbsp;Davitt, Head of Index Options Content at the Nasdaq. Welcome back, Kevin. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-nbsp-davitt-nbsp\"><strong>Kevin&nbsp;Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you for&nbsp;having&nbsp;me back.&nbsp;I&#8217;m&nbsp;excited to be here and&nbsp;I&#8217;m&nbsp;doing well.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Great.&nbsp;Let me throw it at you. The Wall Street Journal tells me that, ,&nbsp;the, the, the markets&nbsp;aren&#8217;t&nbsp;doing so well, and Nasdaq down by over 1%. On the one hand, Kevin, investors&nbsp;seem to be slowly&nbsp;extrapolating the total lack of success in the negotiations between the US and Iran to open the Straits of Horus and the war. On the other hand,&nbsp;I&#8217;m&nbsp;seeing more wobbles from the impact of AI.&nbsp;I&#8217;m&nbsp;sure&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;both but&nbsp;give us your assessment. Where are we today?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-nbsp-davitt-nbsp-0\"><strong>Kevin&nbsp;Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You are right. I, I would say on like a close over close basis, we can extrapolate too much, but the point, the big picture points you make about geopolitical concerns still existing and moving into a topic that, that maybe we&#8217;ll touch on in the next couple of minutes, but earnings and the importance of AI and growth forecasts, particularly this week. With respect to the NASDAQ 100 as well as the S&amp;P 500 and looking at market cap, this is the most influential week for earnings. And what we have seen play out of late, which,&nbsp;just framing this in terms of April,&nbsp;has been a blockbuster month, is a wobble into earnings. Big picture. What&nbsp;I think we&nbsp;see is higher lows in macro volatility, like&nbsp;relative&nbsp;to the, the beginning of the Iran conflict. And over the past two weeks&nbsp;we&#8217;ve&nbsp;seen an unusual dynamic where index levels, index prices have&nbsp;increased on&nbsp;a week over week basis, but so too has&nbsp;forward&nbsp;volatility, or expected volatility. And&nbsp;that&#8217;s&nbsp;unusual.&nbsp;So&nbsp;I think you&nbsp;see that uncertainty pricing ratcheting slightly higher despite markets that continue to grind higher at the index level.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Okay,&nbsp;we&#8217;ll&nbsp;come back to the point about volatility in a moment, Kevin, but you mentioned,&nbsp;let&#8217;s&nbsp;take that one first. What do we&nbsp;have&nbsp;coming up and what should we be looking for?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-nbsp-davitt-nbsp-1\"><strong>Kevin&nbsp;Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>As mentioned in terms of market cap influence at the index level, the most influential week of earning season.\u00a0So\u00a0Wednesday after the close,\u00a0it&#8217;ll\u00a0be April 29th, I believe. We expect reports from Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft. I mean,\u00a0you&#8217;re\u00a0talking about a huge constituency\u00a0reporting\u00a0tomorrow after the close. One of the other bells of the ball in terms of Nasdaq 100 performance and influence this year, Western Digital, I\u00a0think,\u00a0is Thursday.\u00a0Like this\u00a0week is hugely important.\u00a0The dynamic that your audience and option traders, I think, in particular, see\u00a0the market through will\u00a0probably\u00a0observe\u00a0is that at the constituent level, at the single name volatility level, it\u00a0remains\u00a0elevated. That is typical into an uncertain event like earnings, but at the index level, volatility\u00a0remains\u00a0muted. So if you distill that out, what we have seen for the better part of 2026 and reemerging since markets found support in late March has been a low correlation, high dispersion move higher where you see names like last week, Intel really outperforming and pulling the AI sort of sentiment higher, but software lagged again and index and constituent volatility move differently.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the moment, we see elevated single name volatility and relatively normal index volatility.&nbsp;Not unusual in the middle of an&nbsp;earning&nbsp;season.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, Kevin,&nbsp;we&#8217;ve&nbsp;recouped most of the losses that occurred since the war broke out, I believe. You mentioned volatility, forward volatility, implied volatility, is getting more elevated. Just&nbsp;kind of define&nbsp;that for us, please.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-nbsp-davitt-nbsp-2\"><strong>Kevin&nbsp;Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Arguably\u00a0most\u00a0interesting dynamic, at least from my standpoint, has been the breakdown in what is typically a negative correlation between index performance and expected volatility. What I mean by that is typically when you see the markets move\u00a0higher,\u00a0expected volatility declines. We have not seen that over the past couple of weeks.\u00a0That&#8217;s\u00a0interesting.\u00a0What is even more interesting when you sort of peel back a layer or two from that, and particularly pronounced in the NASDAQ 100, is that the bid, the demand side has really\u00a0percolated on\u00a0the out of the money call.\u00a0So\u00a0the right side of the distribution. If\u00a0you&#8217;re\u00a0thinking in terms of normal distribution,\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0where\u00a0we&#8217;ve\u00a0seen the most pronounced sort of demand for optionality.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is a\u00a0180-degree\u00a0turn from what we saw toward the end of last month, the end of March, where the market was scurrying for downside protection and not the least bit concerned about upside. Those dynamics, those shifts can\u00a0open up\u00a0opportunity. And even for those that are\u00a0maybe not\u00a0using options that specifically,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0instructive to see where sort of demand is.\u00a0I think big picture, some institutions were\u00a0arguably underexposed\u00a0after kind of reducing some of the tech focused exposure in Q1, and they have been looking to sort of re-lever via the options and index options market.\u00a0It&#8217;ll\u00a0be fascinating to see how it plays out as these earnings come in and as we move into May.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m&nbsp;struggling there a little bit to understand that. Is it the lack of willingness to sell upside opportunity, or are you saying&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;pent-up&nbsp;demand?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-nbsp-davitt-nbsp-3\"><strong>Kevin&nbsp;Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The way I&#8217;m looking at this in terms of where volatility levels typically are for, let&#8217;s say a one month or three month, 25 delta call, relative to a month ago, and a month ago those volatility levels were exceptionally low relative to history and relative to other indices.\u00a0Now that is not the case. The demand has been, I need some upside exposure.\u00a0And really it seems to have kind of an AI semi tilt.\u00a0And one of the ways institutions and individuals can get that at the index level is with things like out of the money NDX options. And\u00a0so\u00a0from a volatility perspective, looking at that in terms of supply and demand, if the market continues to bid for one month upside NDX, that tends to push volatility and prices higher. And that is what\u00a0we&#8217;ve\u00a0seen over the past couple of weeks.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Brilliant, great explanation. Kevin&nbsp;Davitt,&nbsp;Head of Index Content at the&nbsp;Nasdaq. Thank you very much for joining us.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-nbsp-davitt-nbsp-4\"><strong>Kevin&nbsp;Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My pleasure. Thank you for having me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>All right, and to the audience, thank you for taking the time&nbsp;to listen&nbsp;to today&#8217;s podcast. And&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;forget, if you like it, click the like button and subscribe wherever you download your podcasts from. Bye for now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is this the most important earnings week of the year or the start of a new market regime? As Big Tech reports roll in, we unpack the surprising rise in volatility, booming demand for upside exposure and how AI is reshaping the outlook for the Nasdaq 100.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":242161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[14545,21454,21455,21453,2397,6988,7150,12743,789,21052,13038,3598,20502,19789,1081,4574,910,4109,18053,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-242156","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-ai-stocks","10":"tag-alphabet-earnings","11":"tag-amazon-earnings","12":"tag-big-tech-earnings","13":"tag-earnings-season","14":"tag-financial-markets","15":"tag-implied-volatility","16":"tag-index-options","17":"tag-investing","18":"tag-macro-volatility","19":"tag-market-analysis","20":"tag-market-outlook","21":"tag-meta-earnings","22":"tag-microsoft-earnings","23":"tag-nasdaq-100","24":"tag-options-trading","25":"tag-sp-500","26":"tag-stock-market","27":"tag-trading-strategies","28":"tag-volatility","29":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is This the Most Important Earnings Week of the Year?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242156\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is This the Most Important Earnings Week of the Year? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Is this the most important earnings week of the year or the start of a new market regime? 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