{"id":241828,"date":"2026-04-21T13:21:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T17:21:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241828"},"modified":"2026-04-22T04:15:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T08:15:57","slug":"things-im-warshing-this-morning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/things-im-warshing-this-morning\/","title":{"rendered":"Things I\u2019m Warshing This Morning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Financial media is consumed with one highly important, specific topic this morning: Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh\u2019s confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee.&nbsp; As I type this, Warsh is still fielding questions, and despite \u2013 or perhaps, because of \u2013 offering responses that highlight his independence and inflation-fighting bona fides, stocks and bonds are mildly unimpressed.&nbsp; Other factors might also be contributing to the unfamiliar sight of red on my screen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his testimony so far, Warsh <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/live-blog\/2026-04-21\/fed-chair-nominee-kevin-warsh-s-confirmation-hearing?srnd=homepage-americas\">has made several comments<\/a> that were directly intended to assuage concerns that he would implement policies that would advance the President\u2019s political agenda at the expense of economic realities.&nbsp; He specifically said that he would not be Trump\u2019s \u201csock puppet\u201d, adding that \u201cI\u2019ll be an independent actor if confirmed as chairman of the Federal Reserve.\u201d&nbsp; Without committing to specific inflation or interest rate targets, he acknowledged that Americans are still feeling the effects of inflation and that \u201cI think that means a regime change in the conduct of policy.&nbsp; I think that means a different, new framework.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In theory, stocks and bonds should like the messages of independent thinking and inflation vigilance.&nbsp; In practice, much of the reaction depends upon specifics within the messaging.&nbsp; From a stocks viewpoint, some of the lack of enthusiasm might stem from the seemingly lower likelihood of accommodative monetary policies.&nbsp; From a bond viewpoint, Warsh reaffirmed his long-held opinion that the Fed\u2019s balance sheet is too large; shrinking the balance sheet would necessitate fewer holdings of Treasuries, particularly of the longer-dated variety.&nbsp; Yields are higher by about 4-5 basis points across the curve as I type this.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nonetheless, today\u2019s hearing could be for naught in the near term.&nbsp; Senator Tillis <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/business\/5841124-tillis-doj-powell-probe-kevin-warsh\/\">reaffirmed his commitment<\/a> to withholding his support for Warsh\u2019s approval until the Department of Justice\u2019s probes into Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Lisa Cook are terminated.&nbsp; During an interview <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=51c7469e7ca79e85e5c0e0e4f97100c04b28d7c52754b15c92d9cf29d4e5523fJmltdHM9MTc3NjcyOTYwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=1e9ffdd7-b3c6-62a0-1d01-eb51b2506341&amp;psq=cnbc+trump+interview&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cueW91dHViZS5jb20vd2F0Y2g_dj1uZnBzWUFVLTlLZw\">on CNBC this morning<\/a>, the President was offered some ideas for ending the potential stalemate, but he sounded disinclined to take them.&nbsp; Fed independence is a popular concept; confusion about its leadership is not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding that CNBC interview, we received some conflicting signals about the prospects for a lasting solution to the conflict in the Persian Gulf.&nbsp; &nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/21\/trump-iran-war-ceasefire-peace-talks.html?msockid=1e9ffdd7b3c662a01d01eb51b2506341\">The President said<\/a> that the U.S. is \u201cgoing to end up with a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/21\/oil-price-iran-war-strait-hormuz-tanker-ceasefire-peace-talks.html\">great deal<\/a>\u201d with Iran, but also pushed back on the idea of extending the ceasefire that is set to end tomorrow.&nbsp; When asked about the idea of extending the ceasefire to allow peace talks to continue, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/21\/trump-iran-war-ceasefire-peace-talks.html?msockid=1e9ffdd7b3c662a01d01eb51b2506341\">Trump responded<\/a>, \u201cWell, I don\u2019t want to do that.\u201d&nbsp; Oil prices rose after those remarks, but only by about 2.5-3%.&nbsp; Those are not moves that indicate market expectations for a resumption of outright hostility but instead demonstrate concerns about an ongoing stalemate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the prospect of peace talks is not being greeted as eagerly by traders as it had been.&nbsp; Pre-market futures rose in anticipation of the President\u2019s 8:30 AM ET interview but gave back most of the gains after he finished.&nbsp; Mentions of peace talks had been a reliable catalyst for advances over the past few weeks, with their reliability possibly fueling news-reading algorithms and thus a positive feedback loop, but they did not have the now-usual effect today.&nbsp; If that relationship is definitively broken, it would imply that traders now want results rather than rhetoric.&nbsp; Those are much harder to deliver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, on any normal day, the most important financial news story would be yesterday\u2019s unexpected <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/apple-tim-cook-ceo-chage-john-tenus-3e179f3ba156f37ebdc4da5c137a8263\">announcement by Apple\u2019s (AAPL) Tim Cook<\/a>.&nbsp; After the close, Cook announced that he would be stepping down as CEO on September 1<sup>st<\/sup>, turning those duties over to the company\u2019s head of hardware engineering, John Ternus, while remaining as executive chairman.&nbsp; Cook has led AAPL through a 15-year period of exceptional stock performance, and while Ternus is anything but an AAPL newbie \u2013 he\u2019s been there for about 25 years \u2013 any change at the top of a key company brings at least some jitters.&nbsp; The current -2.5% move in AAPL reflects that.&nbsp; Investors are neither panicky nor expressing a lack of confidence in the management change, but they are at least a bit concerned about it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Financial media is consumed with one highly important, specific topic this morning: Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh\u2019s confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee.\u00a0 As I type this, Warsh is still fielding questions, and despite \u2013 or perhaps, because of \u2013 offering responses that highlight his independence and inflation-fighting bona fides, stocks and bonds are mildly unimpressed.\u00a0 Other factors might also be contributing to the unfamiliar sight of red on my screen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":182367,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-241828","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Things I\u2019m Warshing This Morning | 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