{"id":241815,"date":"2026-04-21T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241815"},"modified":"2026-04-22T04:26:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T08:26:37","slug":"clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad\/","title":{"rendered":"Clarity at home, confusion abroad"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Are markets underestimating the lasting economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-market-recap\"><strong>Market recap<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Equity markets rebounded this week as the conflict in Iran continues to wind down, clearing a path toward opening the Straight of Hormuz.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 jumped 4.5% to a record high, led by technology and consumer discretionary.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>That came alongside a sharp pullback in oil prices, with WTI finishing the week just under $85, down from recent highs above $110.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-iran\"><strong>Iran<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq both reached new record highs as investors began to anticipate an end to the Iran conflict<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-april-20-clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad\/#footnote-ref-1\"><sup>1<\/sup><\/a>. However, significant questions remain, with traffic through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz still well below its normal level. On Thursday, I moderated a webinar for BMO Capital Markets on the market implications of the conflict, and our consensus was that the worst is likely behind us, both in terms of the severity of the conflict itself and markets\u2019 response. The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was the defining moment: it proved that a negotiated settlement was possible, showing markets the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. That gave investors confidence to re-enter the market, pushed stock prices higher, and allowed bond yields to come down. Since the ceasefire, however, progress has been less clear. Oil prices have come down, but not substantially, and we believe it will be some time before they fully normalize. Last week\u2019s Pakistan-mediated negotiations also failed to produce a deal, which resulted in the U.S. administration\u2019s decision to blockade Iranian ports. This increased tensions not only between the U.S. and Iran, but also between the U.S. and countries that rely on Iran for oil, such as China. On Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz \u201copen,\u201d but the U.S. vowed to keep the blockade in place until a deal is reached.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-april-20-clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad\/#footnote-ref-2\"><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><sup>&nbsp;<\/sup>So far, the fragile ceasefire has largely been maintained, but it is unclear what will happen once the two-week deal has expired. Iran still has significant leverage in any negotiation. The question becomes: is the U.S. prepared to concede on anything substantial enough to convince Iran to back down? That, in our view, is the cloud that is still hanging over global markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line: Markets are seeing through the Trump administration\u2019s bluster, instead returning to the economic fundamentals. What remains to be seen is whether investors will retreat as the impact of higher oil prices becomes clearer. If they do, we think it could be an opportunity to buy on the dips.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-canada\"><strong>Canada<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Victories in a trio of federal by-elections last week handed Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s Liberal Party a majority government. But does this meaningfully affect Canada\u2019s policy and economic landscape? In our view, its greatest impact will be on the implementation of Carney\u2019s polices rather than the policies themselves. Carney\u2019s high standing among Canadian voters\u2014a recent survey conducted by Leger in late March placed his approval rating at 58%<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-april-20-clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad\/#footnote-ref-3\"><sup>3<\/sup><\/a>\u2014has clearly been bolstered by his proactive approach to trade, including the signing of several new bilateral agreements. That popularity is what set the stage for the recent by-election victories and opposition party defections, and the resulting majority government should clear the way for Carney\u2019s policy priorities to be enacted more quickly. Those priorities include new trade deals and strategic partnerships, Canada\u2019s ongoing response to the U.S. administration\u2019s tariffs, and the upcoming renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). In the meantime, the Canadian economy stands to benefit from higher oil prices. Carney\u2019s decision to temporarily suspend the federal fuel excise tax should also provide some support for the consumer, which could have otherwise been a drag on Canada\u2019s economy. And Canada\u2019s energy resources create an opening for further partnerships with other countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line: While a majority government likely won\u2019t change Mark Carney\u2019s policy priorities, which remain trade-focused, it will make it easier for him to implement them.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-i\"><strong>A.I.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to posting a solid earnings beat, Taiwanese chip manufacturer TSMC raised its forward guidance in its quarterly announcement last week, causing its stock price to soar.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-april-20-clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad\/#footnote-ref-4\"><sup>4<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0In our view, there were three key takeaways from this news. For one, the artificial intelligence (A.I.) story is still strong. At the beginning of the year, there were some concerns about A.I. companies\u2019 valuations and capital expenditures. But after March\u2019s market drawdown eased valuations somewhat, those fears have subsided, at least in the near term. Second, A.I. firms are likely to benefit from being less reliant on oil as a major input, and therefore less sensitive to higher oil prices, that companies in some other sectors. And third, TSMC\u2019s positive guidance highlights that prices for computer memory remain elevated, though the company did note that they may have abated somewhat. The question is how much these higher memory prices will affect Tech companies\u2019 earnings and, consequently, their stock prices. Higher input costs won\u2019t be limited to just the major A.I. players like Nvidia and Google\u2014they will affect any company that requires memory for their products, including phone manufacturers like Apple and Samsung, networking companies like Cisco, and personal computer makers like Lenovo and HP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line: We view the rest of 2026 as a period of discovery, as markets learn how rising costs, including tariffs and elevated memory and oil prices, will impact Tech companies\u2019 bottom lines\u2014and how much of those costs will be passed along to the consumer.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-positioning\"><strong>Positioning<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For a detailed breakdown of our portfolio positioning, check out the latest BMO GAM House View Report, titled&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/from-crisis-to-calibration-earnings-anchor-the-next-move\/\"><em>From crisis to calibration: earnings anchor the next move<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted April 20, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-april-20-clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad\/\">Clarity at home, confusion abroad<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>1<\/sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/inside-the-market\/market-news\/article-premarket-world-stocks-gain-for-ninth-straight-day-on-hopes-for-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq push to closing records on earnings and Middle East optimism,\u201d The Globe and Mail, April 15, 2026.&nbsp;<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-april-20-clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad\/#footnote-1\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>2<\/sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/world\/iran-foreign-minister-strait-of-hormuz-opens-9.7167808\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Blockade on Iran will continue, Trump says, after Iran says it will reopen Strait of Hormuz,\u201d CBC News, April 17, 2026.&nbsp;<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-april-20-clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad\/#footnote-2\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>3<\/sup><a href=\"https:\/\/leger360.com\/in-the-news-canada-politics-carney-approval-stays-strong-ndp-faces-reset-avi-lewis-win-leger-march-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Canada Politics: Mark Carney Holds Strong Approval While the NDP Faces a New Test Under Avi Lewis,\u201d Leger, April 1, 2026.&nbsp;<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-april-20-clarity-at-home-confusion-abroad\/#footnote-3\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>4<\/sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/tsmc-set-post-50-quarterly-profit-jump-extend-record-earnings-on-insatiable-ai-2026-04-16\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Wen-Yee Lee, Faith Hung and Ben Blanchard, \u201cTSMC lifts revenue forecast, pledges more capital spending to meet AI chip demand,\u201d&nbsp;<em>Reuters<\/em>, April 15, 2026.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Are markets underestimating the lasting economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz 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