{"id":241761,"date":"2026-04-20T12:52:39","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T16:52:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241761"},"modified":"2026-04-21T04:21:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T08:21:22","slug":"in-a-world-of-our-own","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/in-a-world-of-our-own\/","title":{"rendered":"In a World of Our Own"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There are two basic questions that I have been receiving in the past few weeks, though much depends upon the location and investing experience of the inquisitor.  Overseas journalists and investors usually start with some version of, \u201cHow are US investors so able to ignore the events in the Persian Gulf?\u201d  US-based investors with long investment histories usually begin with some version of, \u201cWhat the [expletive] is going on?\u201d  The implicit answer to both is the adage, \u201cnothing changes sentiment like price.\u201d  The broader answer is, of course, more nuanced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we noted last week<\/a>, we completed a very rare trifecta for the S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday.  This was only the third time since 1980 that SPX put together three consecutive weekly gains of 3% or more (last 3 weeks: 3.36%, 3.56%, 4.54%).  The other two examples resulted from significant stimuli that marked the end of bear markets.  The first was in 1982, when the Volcker Fed signaled the end of a years-long fight against inflation that featured high double-digit interest rates; the second came as a combination of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus jump-started a Covid-stunned economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is why many veteran investors are expressing confusion.  They got their experience in an era when a closure of the Strait of Hormuz was feared as the blackest of \u201cblack swans,\u201d a low-probability, high-outcome event that could lead to $150-$200 oil and a quick decline of 10% or more in major stock indices.  They also remember that major turnarounds of the type we\u2019re experiencing tend to follow significant downturns in stocks, not a move that fell shy of even a 10% correction in SPX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of the relatively tame reactions in stock indices can be attributed to an energy price jump that was smaller-than-feared.  Brent futures (COIL) briefly touched the $119 level, never quite getting to $120, let alone $150, though there were reports of \u201cdated Brent\u201d (the spot price of that commodity) exceeding $140 earlier this month.  Traders now seem relatively comfortable with near-term Brent and WTI (CL) futures around $100\/barrel and end-of-year futures around $85 and $75 respectively.  Bear in mind that these levels are $10 or more above the pre-war levels for these futures, as displayed in the graphs below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Term Structure of Brent Crude Futures, Today (bright yellow), 1-Week Ago (red), 1-Month Ago (magenta), February 27th<\/sup>, 2026 (yellow) in Top Pane with Changes versus Today in Bottom Pane<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Term<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Term Structure of WTI Futures, Today (bright yellow), 1-Week Ago (red), 1-Month Ago (magenta), February 27th<\/sup>, 2026 (yellow) in Top Pane with Changes versus Today in Bottom Pane<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Term<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The better-than-worst reaction in oil prices has led to an improvement in interest rates.  Fed Funds futures are no longer pricing in a slight probability for a rate hike by the end of the year; instead, they are back to pricing a modest chance for a single cut.  That has led to improvements in 2-year and 10-year Treasuries as well, though their respective current 3.73% and 4.26% levels are more than 30 basis points above their pre-war yields.  To many veteran investors, the combination of higher oil prices and yields alongside a smaller chance of monetary accommodation does not seem like the recipe for an explosive increase in stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be fair, analysts have been resolute in their estimates for corporate earnings.  In fact, according to various sources, including FactSet, who wrote on Friday:<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the first quarter is 13.2% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 12.2% last week and an earnings growth rate of 13.2% at the end of the first quarter (March 31).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If 13.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 6th<\/sup> consecutive quarter of double-digit (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also my contention that the war creates a unique opportunity for CFOs to evade offering lackluster guidance during conference calls.  They can sidestep guidance by saying that the global situation is so fluid and murky that it prevents them from providing clarity about their companies\u2019 operations in the coming quarters.  Investors and analysts seem willing to accept that premise.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That excuse doesn\u2019t explain the willingness for investors to attribute the same, if not higher, multiples to those earnings amid the backdrop of higher input prices and yields that we discussed earlier.  Enthusiasm and FOMO offer that basis, with sentiment improving alongside stock prices.  But it did allow one veteran columnist to offer a vivid analogy that described the recent price action to a tee.  As Bloomberg\u2019s John Authers wrote<\/a> this morning:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 this rally reflects what happens when a ball that has been held under water is finally released (by improving news from the Gulf) and shoots far above the surface.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There are two basic questions that I have been receiving in the past few weeks, though much depends upon the location and investing experience of the inquisitor.\u00a0 Overseas journalists and investors usually start with some version of, \u201cHow are US investors so able to ignore the events in the Persian Gulf?\u201d\u00a0 US-based investors with long investment histories usually begin with some version of, \u201cWhat the [expletive] is going on?\u201d\u00a0 The implicit answer to both is the adage, \u201cnothing changes sentiment like price.\u201d\u00a0 The broader answer is, of course, more nuanced.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":241770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[4434,14273,850,7590,21394,21395,21393,19090,21248,222],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-241761","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-corporate-earnings","15":"tag-fed-funds-futures","16":"tag-interest-rates","17":"tag-investor-sentiment","18":"tag-market-fomo","19":"tag-oil-price-shocks","20":"tag-persian-gulf-geopolitics","21":"tag-q1-earnings-season","22":"tag-strait-of-hormuz","23":"tag-treasuries","24":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIn 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