{"id":241687,"date":"2026-04-17T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241687"},"modified":"2026-04-17T11:36:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T15:36:16","slug":"markets-and-the-middle-east-impacts-to-asset-classes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/markets-and-the-middle-east-impacts-to-asset-classes\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets and the Middle East: Impacts to asset classes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Leading economic indicators continue to point to underlying resilience, but market-based measures of growth expectations and risk appetite have cooled.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The effects of the Iran war on private real estate are less about direct physical disruption and more about how geopolitical conflict transmits through the broader economy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While higher energy prices are supportive for net energy exporters across emerging markets, the environment is challenging for energy importing Asian economies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest news from the Middle East points to a ceasefire and the possible resumption of energy and goods flows through the Strait of Hormuz. But perennial themes such as diversification, defense, and discipline remain core to our investment conversations. Below, our investment experts discuss the implications of geopolitical risk and high energy prices on their asset classes, and how they\u2019re managing portfolios in this environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-macro-view\">The macro view<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Escalating geopolitical tensions have disrupted global oil supply, raising energy prices and increasing uncertainty at a time when&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-inflation-fed-measure.html\">inflation<\/a>&nbsp;pressures remain a key constraint for policymakers. History suggests that the economic impact of such shocks depends critically on their duration, with even temporary disruptions acting as a tax on global demand and more prolonged disruptions leaving lasting scars through weaker confidence, delayed investment, and tighter financial conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Leading economic indicators continue to point to underlying resilience, but market-based measures of growth expectations and risk appetite have cooled, consistent with a transition from expansion toward a slowdown phase rather than an abrupt downturn. Inflation momentum has reaccelerated, driven primarily by energy, complicating the policy outlook, especially for energy-importing economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Against this backdrop, we have moved to a neutral overall risk stance. Within equities, we maintain a moderate overweight relative to fixed income but emphasize defensive characteristics such as quality, earnings visibility, and lower volatility. In fixed income, we favor increased duration as a risk management tool, expressed through inflation-linked securities, while maintaining a cautious stance toward overall credit risk. This balanced positioning reflects a more uncertain phase of the cycle with a narrower margin for error.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While our preferred cyclical indicators are trending in the wrong direction, they are not pointing to disaster. Taken together, a gradual but not meaningful deterioration in cycle indicators suggests that markets still appear to believe in an exit ramp and an eventual resumption of the expansion once near-term uncertainty fades.&nbsp;<em>\u2014 Brian Levitt, Chief Global Market Strategist and Head of Strategy &amp; Insights<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-emerging-market-stocks\">Emerging market stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The situation in Iran and the broader Middle East has implications for Asia and emerging market economies. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for oil and gas transport to Asia and an important driver of energy prices. While higher energy prices are supportive for net energy exporters across emerging markets, the environment is challenging for energy\u2011importing Asian economies and has implications for inflation and the economic backdrop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The oil market moving from an oversupply to tight supply, shaped by chokepoints, serves as a reminder of how quickly narratives can change. The lesson for us remains diversification and flexibility&nbsp;<em>\u2014&nbsp;<\/em>maintaining exposure across geographies, styles and themes. But also remaining disciplined by leaning into new underappreciated opportunities as conditions evolve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At present, our Asia and emerging markets portfolios have exposure to energy and net energy exporters and a significant underweight to net energy importers (India, Taiwan, Korea) where we believe valuations reflect too much optimism. However, as energy stocks outperformed tech by almost 20% in March<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/us-israel-strikes-iran-what-investors-need-know.html#1\">1<\/a><\/sup>, the picture is now more nuanced \u2014 stock selection remains key.&nbsp;<em>\u2014 Ian Hargreaves and William Lam, Co-Heads of Asia and Emerging Market Equities<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Private real estate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The effects of the Iran war on private real estate are less about direct physical disruption and more about how geopolitical conflict transmits through the broader economy. The most important channels are inflation expectations, interest rates, and investor risk appetite, all of which influence financing costs, valuation assumptions, and confidence among investors and property tenants. Depending on the duration of the conflict, real estate markets may experience delayed leasing decisions or slower transaction activity, even if longer\u2011term fundamentals remain intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From an operating perspective, the conflict\u2019s effects are likely to be uneven across property sectors and markets. Changes in economic growth, trade patterns, and corporate cost structures can influence occupier demand, but these impacts tend to be more pronounced in certain property types and geographies than others. On the supply side, higher energy costs and disruptions to energy\u2011linked materials may raise construction costs or delay development timelines, potentially restraining new supply. For existing assets, reduced levels of new construction can help support occupancy and rent growth where demand remains resilient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For investors, the current conflict reinforces the importance of disciplined underwriting, prudent leverage, and a focus on assets with durable cash flows. The longer uncertainty around the conflict persists, the greater the risk that leasing and investment decisions are delayed. At the same time, periods of slower capital deployment may create openings for investors willing to look beyond near\u2011term volatility in what remains a long\u2011term asset class.&nbsp;<em>\u2014 Mike Sobolik, Investment Strategist, Direct Real Estate, North America; Mike Bessell, Managing Director, European Investment Strategist<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US midstream energy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Midstream companies may offer defensive characteristics in volatile markets, with fee-based, contractually supported revenues that tend to be less sensitive to swings in oil and gas prices. These companies operate an array of assets that enable oil and gas production to be gathered from producing basins, processed, and delivered to consumers. For each of these services, midstream operators typically charge a fee, or use a fee-like mechanism, for the volume accommodated. Therefore, current high oil and gas prices have little impact on these fee-for-volume arrangements \u2014 although the industry could see some near-term benefits. For example, operators with export capacity may benefit from the spike in global price differences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At some point, this conflict will end, global energy markets will likely revert to normal, and the current spike in energy prices will likely fade. With fee-based, contractually supported revenues, we believe a return to more normal prices should not materially impact the midstream sector\u2019s fundamentals on the way down either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the longer term, the Middle East crisis has impacted the ability of significant volumes to exit the region. As a result, commercial and strategic inventories in various locations across the globe will likely be drawn down. Notably, on March 11, 2026, the International Energy Agency announced its 32 member countries will release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves. Post crisis, these members will likely seek to refill these reserves, creating additional demand for a longer period of time. In our view, US midstream companies and master limited partnerships (MLPs) stand to potentially benefit from higher volumes and asset utilization, positioning them at the center of global energy rebalancing.&nbsp;<em>\u2014 Brian Watson, Senior Portfolio Manager<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fixed income<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In an energy shock, some sectors may benefit, such as certain energy-linked credits, while others can face cost pressures, such as transportation names and industrial issuers facing higher input costs. The goal in a multi-sector or core-plus strategy isn\u2019t to make one big macro bet \u2014 it\u2019s to build diversified return drivers designed to hold up amid various challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toward the end of 2025 and continuing into this year, we\u2019ve been deliberately risk-off across our multi-sector portfolios. That shift reflects our view that, when uncertainty rises, preserving flexibility and resilience becomes more important than stretching for incremental yield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, periods of volatility may create opportunity at the margin. We\u2019ve recently seen new issue activity in high-quality investment-grade corporates come at more attractive concessions, and the recent bout of market volatility has begun to open up selective pockets of value. We\u2019re engaging in those opportunities cautiously and selectively, rather than broadly re-risking portfolios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our bias remains toward quality and balance. That means emphasizing higher-quality corporates, being very selective in high yield \u2014 focused on shorter-duration, higher-quality names \u2014 and using securitized sectors to help diversify income streams. The flexibility embedded in our core-plus approach allows us to adjust exposures as conditions evolve, without locking portfolios into any single macro outcome. Our goal is to continue delivering durable income while maintaining portfolios that can hold up across a wide range of growth, inflation, and policy scenarios.&nbsp;<em>\u2014 Todd Schomberg, Head of Investment Grade Portfolio Management, and Matt Brill, Head of North America Investment Grade<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s begin with the caveat that forecasting the trajectory of geopolitical events is inherently difficult and predicting markets\u2019 short\u2011term reactions is often even more so. Policy direction and objectives have evolved since the start of hostilities, offering limited visibility into timing or end\u2011states. At the same time, the Iranian regime faces material pressure that could harden its resolve, even as it contends with a level of sustained military engagement it has not previously experienced. Against this backdrop, elevated market volatility is unsurprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil is the key variable through which this conflict transmits to global growth and equity markets, as the Middle East itself is not a material contributor to global equity indices or gross domestic product. Europe is more exposed than the US to sustained higher energy prices due to greater industrial energy intensity and heavier reliance on imported hydrocarbons, a dynamic that also applies to Japan and much of Asia. A prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be challenging for all markets, more so non-US equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our experience has been that geopolitical events of this nature, while capable of driving meaningful short\u2011term volatility, rarely alter the long\u2011term trajectory of equity markets. As a result, our investment approach generally emphasizes discipline over reaction, avoiding major positioning changes in response to headline risk. We remain focused on long\u2011term structural growth themes and underlying company fundamentals, which we believe ultimately drive returns through periods of uncertainty.&nbsp;<em>\u2014 John Delano and Robert Dunphy, Senior Portfolio Managers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Defense industry<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The conflict in Iran has stressed the need for both new technologies and adequate spending to maintain defensive systems. Protecting against threats to infrastructure across the Gulf has required a significant use of more expensive air defense systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This comes amidst a larger shift toward artificial intelligence, space, and cyber technologies that are pushing the old boundaries of what the defense industry historically contained. From high energy laser beams designed to knock out drones to hypersonic missiles, the future of defense could quickly grow beyond traditional tanks and jets.&nbsp;<em>\u2014 Rene Reyna, Head of Thematic and Specialty Product Strategy ETFs and Indexed Strategies<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted April 15, 2026 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/us-israel-strikes-iran-what-investors-need-know.html\">Markets and the Middle East: Impacts to asset classes <\/a>by Invesco US<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NA5378600<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investments cannot be made directly in an index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investments in real estate-related instruments may be affected by economic, legal, or environmental factors that affect property values, rents or occupancies of real estate. Real estate companies, including REITs or similar structures, tend to be small and mid-cap companies and their shares may be more volatile and less liquid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fixed income investments are subject to credit risk of the issuer and the effects of changing interest rates. Interest rate risk refers to the risk that bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa. An issuer may be unable to meet interest and\/or principal payments, thereby causing its instruments to decrease in value and lowering the issuer\u2019s credit rating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic and political conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Businesses in the energy sector may be adversely affected by foreign, federal, or state regulations governing energy production, distribution, and sale as well as supply-and-demand for energy resources. Short-term volatility in energy prices may cause share price fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most MLPs operate in the energy sector and are subject to the risks generally applicable to companies in that sector, including commodity pricing risk, supply and demand risk, depletion risk and exploration risk. MLPs are also subject to the risk that regulatory or legislative changes could eliminate the tax benefits enjoyed by MLPs, which could have a negative impact on the after-tax income available for distribution by the MLPs and\/or the value of the portfolio\u2019s investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many products and services offered in technology-related industries are subject to rapid obsolescence, which may lower the value of the issuers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alternative products typically hold more non-traditional investments and employ more complex trading strategies, including hedging and leveraging through derivatives, short selling and opportunistic strategies that change with market conditions. Investors considering alternatives should be aware of their unique characteristics and additional risks from the strategies they use. Like all investments, performance will fluctuate. You can lose money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MSCI Emerging Markets Energy Index includes large- and mid-cap energy sector securities across 24 emerging markets countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MSCI Emerging Markets Information Technology Index includes large- and mid-cap information technology sector securities across 24 emerging markets countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Credit risk&nbsp;is the&nbsp;risk&nbsp;of default on a debt that may arise from a borrower or issuer of bonds failing to make required payments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates. Duration is expressed as a number of years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Monetary easing refers to the lowering of interest rates and deposit ratios by central banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Leverage measures a company\u2019s total debt relative to the company\u2019s book value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Risk-off refers to price behavior driven by changes in investor risk tolerance; investors tend toward lower risk investments when they perceive risk as high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gross domestic product (GDP) is a broad indicator of a region\u2019s economic activity, measuring the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced in that region over a specified period of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of<strong>&nbsp;April 9, 2026.<\/strong>&nbsp;These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Leading economic indicators continue to point to underlying resilience, but market-based measures of growth expectations and risk appetite have 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