{"id":241480,"date":"2026-04-13T13:36:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T17:36:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241480"},"modified":"2026-04-14T04:23:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T08:23:12","slug":"no-dip-left-unbought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/no-dip-left-unbought\/","title":{"rendered":"No Dip Left Unbought"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Once again, this weekend brought a slew of unpleasant news regarding the situation in the Persian Gulf.&nbsp; The failure of the peace talks in Pakistan and the subsequent announcement of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were treated as catalysts for sharply higher oil futures and lower stock index futures when they re-opened last night.&nbsp; As I type this, only one of those market reactions remains in place.&nbsp; Care to guess which?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We could certainly attribute the ferocity of the initial 1.3% drop to early jitters, but note the speed of the subsequent bounce on the first modest decline in oil futures.&nbsp; That shows how eager stock traders are for any hint of decent news.&nbsp; That first dip in oil futures didn\u2019t last long, but the ratchet effect in stocks did.&nbsp; By the time that US traders began waking up, ES futures had recovered more than half their initial drop even as oil remained within its early trading range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-days-june-es-futures-white-may-wti-futures-blue-june-brent-futures-red\"><strong><em>2-Days, June ES Futures (white), May WTI Futures (blue), June Brent Futures (Red)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"956\" height=\"572\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/sosnick-1-0413.jpg\" alt=\"ES-CL-chart\" class=\"wp-image-241482 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/sosnick-1-0413.jpg 956w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/sosnick-1-0413-700x419.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/sosnick-1-0413-300x179.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/sosnick-1-0413-768x460.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 956px) 100vw, 956px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 956px; aspect-ratio: 956\/572;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The prevailing feeling among many traders was that things would somehow work out before the 10AM ET deadline.&nbsp; The notion of the \u201cTACO trade\u201d or \u201cTrump Put\u201d remains firmly embedded in traders\u2019 mindsets.&nbsp; Many seemed to be expecting some sort of announcement that ameliorated the situation shortly before the blockade began.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But this time they did not.&nbsp; The President announced that the blockade had begun as scheduled, and early reports showed that at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/live-updates\/iran-war-us-iran-ports-blockade-strait-of-hormuz-trump\/\">least two tankers turned away<\/a> from the Strait shortly thereafter.&nbsp; Nonetheless, stock traders once again heard what they wanted to hear (and disregarded the rest, <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/C1VUWDcp5Sg?si=bqgV24zONHZT01O6\">to paraphrase Paul Simon<\/a>) just before the deadline.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Around 9:45 ET, stocks shot higher and oil ticked lower without an initially obvious headline.&nbsp; It soon became evident that the reason was a post on X <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/livecoverage\/s-p-500-dow-jones-nasdaq-brent-crude-oil-100-persian-gulf-blockade-iran-war\/card\/new-york-post-reporter-clarifies-earlier-post-that-appeared-to-move-markets-DOBTxDEykkaWVjJ7EFVX\">by a <em>New York Post <\/em>reporter<\/a> that Iranian officials were still considering giving up nuclear enrichment in order to end the war.&nbsp; That indeed would be good news, of course, as would any serious proposal by either side that could bring an end to the situation.&nbsp; Unfortunately, the reporter herself clarified the reporting after doubts emerged about its timing and accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"670\" height=\"488\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-40.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-241483 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-40.png 670w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-40-300x219.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 670px) 100vw, 670px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 670px; aspect-ratio: 670\/488;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CaitlinDoornbos\/status\/2043706146968809709?s=20\"><em>X<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"670\" height=\"556\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-41.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-241484 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-41.png 670w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-41-300x249.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 670px) 100vw, 670px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 670px; aspect-ratio: 670\/556;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/urldefense.com\/v3\/__https:\/x.com\/adamscochran\/status\/2043688541369090503?s=20__;!!FDKD93KylVk2!8loVI3h5VsmsSD5RZkoQ9JOH7jxLCyb2rrk3_TzNOurQnC4W5kXYfVurSWF_i3qE-h5sxMWmajZH7eMyCyl4Pj4CTg$\"><em>X<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, the reporter\u2019s initial tweet was ignored for about two hours, so it is not clear what caused it to move markets at that particular moment just before the deadline.&nbsp; Presumably it got an influential re-tweet that hit eager traders at the correct moment.&nbsp; Yet the initial market reaction held, and the advance continued regardless.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What we learned is that the news doesn\u2019t actually matter to stock traders.&nbsp; Instead, what does matter is that there is an excuse for stocks to do what the majority of investors want and expect them to do. &nbsp;Commodity traders are forced to live in the present, where immediate considerations of supply and demand influence current prices.&nbsp; Indeed, while the price of crude has fallen from its initial highs, it remains elevated.&nbsp; Stock traders, on the other hand, live in a world of expectations.&nbsp; If the prospects for the future are rosy, they can outweigh inconvenient news in the present tense.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is what we see now.&nbsp; Investors expect an imminent end to the war in the Gulf with few lasting consequences. &nbsp;The gloomy present is being deemed as irrelevant to future prospects.&nbsp; Perhaps that is the case, perhaps not.&nbsp; But it is clear that positive psychology rules, and thus the efficacy of buying dips remains in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Once again, this weekend brought a slew of unpleasant news regarding the situation in the Persian Gulf.\u00a0 The failure of the peace talks in Pakistan and the subsequent announcement of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were treated as catalysts for sharply higher oil futures and lower stock index futures when they re-opened last night.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":241485,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[20412,17489],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-241480","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-dip-buying","15":"tag-oil-gas","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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