{"id":241467,"date":"2026-04-13T12:54:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T16:54:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241467"},"modified":"2026-04-13T18:27:38","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T22:27:38","slug":"forecast-opinion-take-the-ppi-yes-at-3-8-for-a-triple-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-opinion-take-the-ppi-yes-at-3-8-for-a-triple-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Opinion: Take The PPI \u201cYes\u201d at 3.8% For a Triple Tomorrow: April 13, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s March Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to come in at 4.6% and according to my own opinion, I\u2019ve spotted an undervalued opportunity in the Interactive Brokers prediction market as it relates to this indicator. Taking the \u201cYes\u201d at 3.8% for <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=727520260%7C20260414%7C3.8%7CMarch%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\">$0.35<\/a> would deliver almost a triple, since it would pay out $1.00 on a number of 3.9% or higher. For context, February\u2019s print was 3.4%, and the PPI\u2019s closer watched cousin, the Consumer Price Index, featured a year-over-year figure that rose 90 basis points throughout the same time period, from 2.4% to 3.3%, signaling that a substantial annualized increase should be expected month over month for the PPI as well. Furthermore, the PPI is even more sensitive to rising fuel and goods costs, by the way, and should reflect a stronger acceleration, considering that services were relatively tame in the CPI. Meanwhile, of the 19 economists surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, most would agree, as the median stands at 4.7% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum forecasts of 3.4% and 5.9%. Personally, I don\u2019t know what the 3.4% entry is all about as I can&#8217;t see a path to an unchanged result. Additionally, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.4% and 3.6% are too cheap in my view, at just $0.78 and $0.58.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"99\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-35-1100x99.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contract asking if March PPI will exceed 3.8%.\" class=\"wp-image-241469 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-35-1100x99.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-35-700x63.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-35-300x27.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-35-768x69.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-35.png 1125w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/99;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"621\" height=\"735\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-38.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR predictive market contracts addressing March PPI. \" class=\"wp-image-241472 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 621px; aspect-ratio: 621\/735;width:949px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-38.png 621w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-38-300x355.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 621px) 100vw, 621px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gas-prices-likely-rose-for-13-th-consecutive-week\"><strong>Gas Prices Likely Rose For 13<sup>th<\/sup> Consecutive Week<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retail gasoline prices likely rose for the 13th consecutive week, as heavy crude oil costs continue to drive pain at the pump. The seven-day period ended on April 6 saw a result of $4.12, and the Interactive Brokers prediction market sees a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=751047545%7C20260414%7C4.1%7CApril%2013,%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">78%<\/a> chance of a figure coming in ahead of $4.10 for the time span culminating on April 13. However, there\u2019s only a 4% probability of a number arriving north of $4.20, as participants expect a level around $4.18 in tomorrow morning\u2019s publication.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"101\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-36-1100x101.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contract asking if US gasoline will exceed $4.10 for the week ending April 13, 2026.\" class=\"wp-image-241470 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-36-1100x101.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-36-700x64.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-36-300x27.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-36-768x70.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-36.png 1115w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/101;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"105\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-37-1100x105.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contract asking if US gasoline will exceed $4.20 for the week ending April 13, 2026.\" class=\"wp-image-241471 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-37-1100x105.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-37-700x67.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-37-300x29.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-37-768x73.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-37.png 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/105;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 13, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow\u2019s March Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to come in at 4.6% and according to my own opinion, I\u2019ve spotted an undervalued opportunity in the Interactive Brokers prediction market as it relates to this indicator.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[4505,14453],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-241467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-producer-price-index","tag-retail-gasoline-prices","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Forecast Opinion: Take The PPI \u201cYes\u201d at 3.8% For a Triple Tomorrow: April 13, 2026","description":"Tomorrow\u2019s March Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to come in at 4.6% and according to my own opinion, I\u2019ve spotted an undervalued 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