{"id":241385,"date":"2026-04-10T10:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T14:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241385"},"modified":"2026-05-14T09:11:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T13:11:14","slug":"markets-rally-inflation-pressures-build-energy-rates-and-what-comes-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/cents-of-security\/markets-rally-inflation-pressures-build-energy-rates-and-what-comes-next\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets Rally, Inflation Pressures Build: Energy, Rates, and What Comes Next"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Interactive Brokers Senior Economist Jose Torres joins the <em>Cents of Security Podcast<\/em> to break down the recent market rally, rising energy-driven inflation, and why strong labor data and fiscal stimulus may not be enough to fuel another big equity year. From CPI risks to sector winners and losers, Jose shares a sober take on what investors should watch next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Markets Rally, Inflation Pressures Build: Energy, Rates, and What Comes Next\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=tk9e7-1a95f09-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=auto&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mary-macnamara-nbsp\"><strong>Mary MacNamara <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hello everybody, and welcome to the Cents Security Podcast. Today we&#8217;re here with Interactive Brokers Senior Economist Jose Torres, to give us an update on economics and the markets. Welcome, Jose. How are you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp\"><strong>Jose Torres <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hi, Mary. Doing great. How are you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mary-macnamara-nbsp-0\"><strong>Mary MacNamara <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m doing good. So, what&#8217;s the latest in economics in the markets?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-0\"><strong>Jose Torres <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Seven consecutive days of advances for stocks. March 30th, we had hit a year-to-date bottom on the S&amp;P at around 6317. Today we&#8217;re at 6820, roughly 8% higher than that point, which was just 10 calendar days ago. So, a lot of optimism about the ceasefire. A lot of confidence that President Trump wants this conflict to end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Subdued energy costs have been a key aspect of the Trump policy mix. He&#8217;s also wanted lower interest rates, which of course are harder to get when you have soaring gasoline prices. So those factors in combination with. Economic data that&#8217;s been pretty strong when you look at the labor data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today&#8217;s Thursday, April 9th, continuing unemployment claims fell nearly to a two-year low, the lowest since May 2024. Combined that with payrolls that were robust in the month of March, ADP confirmed that corporate earnings expectations, those estimates are being lifted. For those reasons, folks thought that valuations got too cheap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And headline after headline has essentially pushed the market higher. Today was Israel beginning to negotiate with Lebanon. This morning there was a little bit of hesitation because investors were worried that the ceasefire conditions weren&#8217;t being honored. Tehran and Washington were pointing the fingers at each other the US essentially saying, Hey, you&#8217;re not abiding by the demands as it relates to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran saying you&#8217;re not cooperating on the Lebanon talks, that was included in Lebanon conditions that was included in the original ceasefire, so you had some doubts, but the doubts are being quelled and being replaced by optimism. I&#8217;m a little worried for tomorrow&#8217;s CPI for March. It&#8217;s going to be the first time over 3% since May 2024, which we just cited as the continuing unemployment claim month, which is just a coincidence but it&#8217;s looking to be higher at 3.3% driven by these oil costs, Mary, are up roughly 65% year over year and that&#8217;s pushed CPI materially higher, and if oil prices don&#8217;t sink fast soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The CPI is going to have a four handle by this summer, so how could you cut rates in that environment? Also, there&#8217;s been a significant amount of damage to energy production facilities in the Middle East, missiles and stuff and violence hitting those facilities. So even after presumably you have peace in the Middle East, there will still be a process of repairing those facilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The supply outlook won&#8217;t be as ample as it was in the beginning of the year, meaning that in the beginning of the year, oil was around $55 or $60. The new $55 or $60 would be %75 or $80 for quite some time as the supply outlook improves and those facilities are presumably repaired. Other things that bulls are excited about is the fiscal stimulus from President Trump&#8217;s Big, Beautiful Bill passed last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heavier tax refunds, more incentives for companies to invest, and that is, really stimulative to the economic backdrop and has been delivering solid data. Inflation is not a terrible thing for stock market investors as long as the Fed is not on your back. There&#8217;s an expectation that with fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh taking the helm soon that he&#8217;s not going to be nearly as hawkish as Chair Powell. He&#8217;s likely to see this surge in energy cost as a temporary climb and would not justify using monetary policy tightening to subdue it. So, for that reason, equity investors are very thrilled at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mary-macnamara-nbsp-1\"><strong>Mary MacNamara <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>All right, so as you said, most oil production cannot be turned on instantly, and it takes months to drill and frack new wells. Other than the rising gas prices, what other areas of the economy are impacted? Are energy, surcharges, gaining momentum?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-1\"><strong>Jose Torres <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Definitely gaining momentum, accelerating fiercely. Mary, in the beginning of this year, two of the top tailwinds to the market and to the backdrop were rate cuts and low inflation, which was thanks to subdued energy costs. We had January and February 2.4%, very good, Not generally speaking, but relative to the 3.2 or 3.3 or 3.4 that we&#8217;re going to get tomorrow, 2.4 is terrific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So that was part of the backdrop. Now of course, costs are accelerating. Energy is a huge input. Let&#8217;s talk about services, airlines are a huge service. They&#8217;re not specifically in the gasoline segment of the CPI. However, they&#8217;re a huge discretionary area of which jet fuel is a critical input, so that&#8217;s going to shoot up like you can imagine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then when you consider physical goods, they&#8217;re being impacted much more modestly by tariff tide increases, but now you got to move those goods around. So, you got to put them on a truck, you got to put them on a ship, you\u2019ve got to put them on a plane. However, you&#8217;re going to move them around now, it&#8217;s going to cost you more. Workers they&#8217;re going to be driving to work, they&#8217;re going to be taking the bus, whatever those costs are now, higher paying at the pump. So that starts to really generate an inflationary effect across the entire economy. More so in goods, pain at the pump specifically, but also in some of those critical services like airline fares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then also in the expectations now that there&#8217;s pain at the pump and there&#8217;s higher cost for goods and for airlines. Now workers want to get paid more. There&#8217;s more of an expectation for loftier compensation expenses, which of course also affects final selling charges. So, we really need oil to fall pretty fast, but it doesn&#8217;t look like that&#8217;s going to happen given the things we&#8217;ve just spoken about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, I don&#8217;t think that stocks can rally much harder from here. I&#8217;m really in Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick&#8217;s camp that we&#8217;re probably going to have a flat to a modestly down year just because conditions here aren&#8217;t supportive of a momentous rally this year like it was in the past three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, we&#8217;ve been on this kind of three year, on, one year off kind of pattern, and I think there&#8217;s some credence to that view as well. For example, 2018 was a down year, followed by three strong years 19, 20, 21 and 22 was a down year, followed by 23, 24, 25, maybe 26 is a down year. We&#8217;ll see what happens, but today&#8217;s exuberance and even the exuberance of the last few days has been significant, and Wall Street is sniffing out a terrific Trump deal. I&#8217;m a little more tempered here. I&#8217;m not as excited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mary-macnamara-nbsp-2\"><strong>Mary MacNamara <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So, ISM Prices index, a US manufacturing survey reported an eight percentage point increase on the cost of imported materials in March, the biggest monthly increase in over 13 years. What can you tell us about that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, manufacturers, they&#8217;re directly affected by tariffs, increases, as well as energy costs climbs that filter directly into their materials. Soon we&#8217;re going to have the strongest inflation that we&#8217;ve seen since 2023. Hopefully not since 2022, just because of this surge and fuel costs that, we&#8217;ve been talking about earlier on this podcast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s not only ISM manufacturing, ISM services too, saw a huge acceleration in costs that&#8217;s going to stay with us for most of the year, similar to 2022. Income investors can&#8217;t be too happy because you&#8217;re not going to get rate cuts to deliver capital gains at the short end of the curve, and inflation expectations are going to be quite elevated at the long end of the curve. Alongside now the deficit dynamics are starting to worsen a little bit because of the cost of the war and expectations for more defense spending and things like that. So fixed income investors can&#8217;t really be that excited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then equity investors, you have some supporting factors like fiscal stimulus, like stable labor, like rising earnings expectations, but I don&#8217;t think we get a really strong up year this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mary-macnamara-nbsp-3\"><strong>Mary MacNamara <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Okay, so with that in mind, which part of the market is most vulnerable to hotter CPI print tomorrow? Rates, equities, or risk assets broadly. And where might we actually see resilience?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-2\"><strong>Jose Torres <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Rates are the most sensitive then risk assets and equities as well. Specifically, equities because some risk assets would benefit from an inflationary environment, but who wouldn&#8217;t benefit? Consumer discretionary would not benefit from higher rates and from higher inflation, that&#8217;s retail. Anything that&#8217;s cyclically oriented or rate sensitive in the equity space. Would it benefit? So, consumer discretionary, industrials, real estate, materials, those sectors of the market, small caps would not benefit. Technology is becoming increasingly insulated to the cycle and to interest rates, so they can do particularly well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Energy can do particularly well if, of course, high energy costs, these companies sell energy. Their costs of production are relatively even albeit production levels are down at Exxon and Chevron because they have some facilities in the Middle East. That area could do well, healthcare could do well in an inflationary higher rate environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Utilities could do well, and then consumer staples, those areas, and stocks can do well. As far as treasuries, which I think that the duration stands to get hit the hardest from higher inflation because for the short end to increase, you would need to have expectations of Fed hikes. And that&#8217;s really not in the cards right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like we said earlier, there is an expectation that Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair nominee, is not going to raise rates, even if inflation is really momentous because, President Trump chose someone that presumably is going to either keep rates steady or bring them down because that&#8217;s what the Commander in Chief wants. Of course he can do the opposite, just the conditions and the storyline and the recent speeches don&#8217;t sound like he would do that. It sounds like he&#8217;ll say that it&#8217;s a temporary energy shock that we&#8217;re going to sit back and wait. So, if we have a hot CPI tomorrow, Friday, April 10th, I&#8217;m expecting the long end to depreciate much faster than the short end. So, we&#8217;ll have a bear steepening motion across the curve. That means the yields on the 10-year, 20- year, and 30-year-old are going to rise faster than the yields on the one, two, and five year per se. Another reason why I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;re going to get a rate hike, no matter how high inflation goes, is because it was quickly dismissed by the market a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We started to price in a rate hike with 50% probability and that was dismissed within two to three days. But Mary, fundamentally, that is the move to make if CPI is on its way to 4%. You&#8217;ve should probably start hiking. That&#8217;s what they&#8217;re talking about in Europe, in the UK, Australia&#8217;s already hiking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Japan&#8217;s already hiking. So, when you have those kinds of inflation numbers, hiking is the policy, it is the medicine. But we are not going to do that here. It looks like in the US, we&#8217;re going to let the economy run hot. And we&#8217;re going to hope that inflation gets back to target soon, Mary, but it&#8217;s hasn&#8217;t been at target since 2021, March, 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, we&#8217;re going on over five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mary-macnamara-nbsp-4\"><strong>Mary MacNamara <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Interesting. All right, Jose, I know you&#8217;re very busy out there talking to everybody, and we appreciate your time and so much your insights too. Thank you so much for joining us today!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-3\"><strong>Jose Torres <\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you, Mary. Always a pleasure and looking forward to seeing you soon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Interactive Brokers Senior Economist Jose Torres joins the Cents of Security Podcast to break down the recent market rally, rising energy-driven inflation, and why strong labor data and fiscal stimulus may not be enough to fuel another big equity year. 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