{"id":241357,"date":"2026-04-09T12:58:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T16:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241357"},"modified":"2026-04-09T14:15:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T18:15:03","slug":"cpi-expected-to-jump-above-3-for-first-time-since-may-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/cpi-expected-to-jump-above-3-for-first-time-since-may-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"CPI Expected to Jump Above 3% For First Time Since May 2024: April 9, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tomorrow\u2019s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to jump above 3% for the first time since May 2024, as the surge in gasoline costs sparked by the Middle East conflict spreads across the economy. The median estimate for the headline statistic stands at 3.3%, but the range of potential outcomes is particularly wide, as the peak expectation of the 44 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll is at an elevated 4%. Meanwhile, the Interactive Brokers prediction market sees a number north of 3% with a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=712856682%7C20260410%7C3%7CMarch%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">96%<\/a> degree of confidence, while odds for a figure that fails to exceed 3.5% is at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=712856682%7C20260410%7C3.5%7CMarch%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">92%<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"468\" height=\"588\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-23.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-241358 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 468px; aspect-ratio: 468\/588;aspect-ratio:0.7959195283398166;width:708px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-23.png 468w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-23-300x377.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-core-cpi-expected-around-2-6-2-7\"><strong>Core CPI Expected Around 2.6%, 2.7%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics, is expected to land around 2.6% or 2.7% meanwhile, with the Interactive Brokers prediction market pricing a number that fails to exceed 2.7% at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=727520252%7C20260410%7C2.7%7CMarch%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">82%<\/a>. Looking over and under, odds of a statistic coming in higher than <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=727520252%7C20260410%7C2.4%7CMarch%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.4%<\/a> is at 95% while a figure below 3.1%, or failing to come in above 3%, is currently going for 95%.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"734\" height=\"879\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-241361 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-25.png 734w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-25-700x838.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-25-300x359.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 734px) 100vw, 734px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 734px; aspect-ratio: 734\/879;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-german-flash-estimate-came-in-at-124-47\"><strong>German Flash Estimate Came in at 124.47<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Turning to Germany, tomorrow\u2019s revision to the flash March CPI is likely to arrive near the 124.47 originally reported, as the indicator has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it typically arrives close to estimates and its preliminary reading. The Interactive Brokers prediction market, meanwhile, prices a result above 124 at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=808613964%7C20260410%7C124%7CMarch%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">86%<\/a>, while one at or below 124.5 is at 88%. The \u201cYes\u201d at 123.5 and the \u201cNo\u201d at 125 are going for $0.91 and $0.95, against the backdrop. The effects of rounding could be critical here ladies and gentlemen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"113\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-24-1100x113.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-241359 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/113;aspect-ratio:9.735268747141909;width:743px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-24-1100x113.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-24-700x72.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-24-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-24-768x79.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-24-1536x157.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-24.png 1895w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"687\" height=\"882\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-26.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-241360 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 687px; aspect-ratio: 687\/882;aspect-ratio:0.778906814134793;width:743px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-26.png 687w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-26-300x385.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 687px) 100vw, 687px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-canadian-unemployment-is-historically-volatile\"><strong>Canadian Unemployment Is Historically Volatile <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Canadian unemployment rate is historically volatile and can deliver significant surprises. Tomorrow\u2019s March figure is expected to rise from 6.7% to 6.8%, according to the Reuters monthly poll of 15 forecasters. However, the minimum and maximum values stand at 6.6% and 6.9%, indicating the possibility for a sizeable miss on projections.\u00a0The 6.6% threshold in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, meanwhile, prices out the \u201cYes\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=773080482%7C20260410%7C6.6%7CMarch%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$0.59<\/a> and the \u201cNo\u201d at $0.39.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"119\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-27-1100x119.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-241362 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/119;aspect-ratio:9.244242300554134;width:769px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-27-1100x119.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-27-700x76.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-27-300x33.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-27-768x83.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-27-1536x166.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-27.png 1892w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 9, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow\u2019s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to jump above 3% for the first time since May 2024, as the surge in gasoline costs sparked by the Middle East conflict spreads across the economy. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":236408,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2180,570],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-241357","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-prediction-market","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-consumer-price-index","15":"tag-inflation","16":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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