{"id":241351,"date":"2026-04-09T12:50:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T16:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241351"},"modified":"2026-04-09T12:53:33","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T16:53:33","slug":"good-vibes-outweighing-higher-crude","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/good-vibes-outweighing-higher-crude\/","title":{"rendered":"Good Vibes Outweighing Higher Crude"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This morning featured the once-usual pattern: overnight US index futures were lower thanks to dips in overseas markets and higher crude futures, but then came steadily off their lows despite lackluster economic data and oil taking another leg higher as the morning wore on.&nbsp; That led to a brief flirtation with unchanged levels before modest profit-taking returned to the forefront.&nbsp; Once again, equity traders are more concerned about good vibes and positive momentum than geopolitics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We noted yesterday that even as stock traders were rejoicing in the prospect of a 14-day ceasefire, bond traders were unenthused, and oil\u2019s drop, while quite substantial, mostly returned those futures to levels that prevailed about two weeks ago.&nbsp; Today, as reports emerged that the Strait of Hormuz <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/the-strait-of-hormuz-is-not-open-as-iran-controls-access-after-ceasefire-uae-oil-ceo-says\/ar-AA20voCp?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">remained largely closed<\/a> to ship traffic while the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/world\/iran\/live-blog\/live-updates-iran-war-ceasefire-trump-hormuz-israel-lebanon-rcna267205\">struck by Iranian attacks<\/a>, oil prices rebounded substantially \u2013 about 5-8%, depending on the specific contract \u2013 but stocks shrugged.&nbsp; Obviously, the concept of the ceasefire is preferable to its execution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Remember the market\u2019s reactions to the prior ceasefire announcements.&nbsp; The first one, a 5-day unilateral pause announced before the open on March 23<sup>rd<\/sup>, led to a 1.15% rally in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and a 10.3% drop in May WTI futures (CL).&nbsp; The second, a 10-day extension of the prior pause, announced after the close on March 26<sup>th<\/sup>, when SPX had fallen by 1.74% and crude rose 4.61%, led to a further 1.67% drop in SPX and a further rise of 5.46% in CL the next day.&nbsp; Yesterday\u2019s bilateral ceasefire yielded a 2.51% jump in SPX and a stunning 16.41% plunge in May CL futures.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For perspective, on the last trading day prior to the first 5-day pause, SPX closed at 6506.48 and May Crude closed at $98.00.&nbsp; That means that as of yesterday\u2019s close, crude had fallen by 2% and SPX had risen by 4.24% over that period.&nbsp; Considering that oil has been FAR more volatile than stocks over that period, that seems like reasonable evidence of an asymmetric response to the geopolitical events.&nbsp; That should surprise no one, even if the disparity is stark.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For additional reference, the 2-year Treasury yield dropped from 3.90% to 3.79%, the 10-year yield dipped from 4.38% to 4.29%, and expectations for rate cuts in 2026 improved from a 29% chance for a hike to a 27% chance for one cut.&nbsp;&nbsp; At the end of February, the 2-year yield was 3.38%, the 10-year was 3.94%, and Fed Funds futures were pricing in 2 rate cuts plus a 44% chance for a third.&nbsp; Considering that significant shift in the yield curve over that time, along with the jump in May crude from $66.13 to $96.03 \u2013 a 45% leap \u2013 SPX\u2019s 1.4% drop from the end of February through yesterday is rather paltry.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coincidentally, today is the one-year anniversary of the post-\u201cLiberation Day\u201d rally that pushed SPX up by 9.5%.&nbsp; This memory is firmly in investors\u2019 mindsets and is a key rationale for why stocks retain a high level of residual optimism even as key factors that influence equity pricing have moved in the wrong direction.&nbsp; To be fair, stocks are meant to be forward-looking while commodities are certainly more rooted in the here-and-now of supply and demand (bonds are somewhere in between), but stock traders have become predisposed to look for a brighter future ahead.&nbsp; The lessons of prior dips, and especially last year\u2019s, remain deeply embedded in the stock market psyche.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(And in another case of current events overtaking my ability to write quickly, stocks have caught a second wind and oil prices are off their highs after reports emerged that Israel will begin negotiations with Hezbollah.&nbsp; This was a clear sticking point in the initial phase of the current ceasefire.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning featured the once-usual pattern: overnight US index futures were lower thanks to dips in overseas markets and higher crude futures, but then came steadily off their lows despite lackluster economic data and oil taking another leg higher as the morning wore on.\u00a0 That led to a brief flirtation with unchanged levels before modest profit-taking returned to the forefront.\u00a0 Once again, equity traders are more concerned about good vibes and positive momentum than geopolitics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":241353,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-241351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Good Vibes Outweighing Higher Crude | Traders&#039; 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/Traders-Insight-image-sosnick.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241351\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/241353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241351"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=241351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}