For decades, the risk around Hormuz was straightforward. Either the traffic flowed, or a crisis threatened to shut the route. Wars, standoffs, and naval incidents sometimes disrupted the strait, but it soon returned to normal, with ships passing freely, regardless of where they were from or where they were headed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But then came the Iran war of 2026<\/strong>. It\u2019s the first one to effectively shut the strait for weeks. After the two-week ceasefire was announced earlier this week, the relief across the markets was palpable: Maybe the strait would finally reopen, and the world economy would return to normalcy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n But even if the talks go well, normalization may not mean a return to the old rules. Iran is floating a different idea: keep the strait open but charge for access<\/strong>. Reportedly, it has already done that to a few Chinese ships seeking passage. If the tolls take hold, it would raise transport costs permanently and challenge long-held international rules on global maritime trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran has now demonstrated how easily Hormuz can be disrupted. Attacks, threats, and insurance pullbacks were enough to drain traffic fast and send oil prices surging. That was the classic Hormuz playbook that analysts had warned about for years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The new proposal flips the script. Rather than blocking the route, Iran would allow ships through, selectively and for a fee. Iran\u2019s parliamentary committee has already approved the plan for the tolls, with the fees set reportedly at 1$ per barrel of oil<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That doesn\u2019t sound too much until you do the math. A standard Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC)<\/strong> carries about 2 million barrels<\/strong>. At that rate, a single transit could cost $2 million<\/strong>, before accounting for insurance surcharges, security costs, and delays. Around 140 vessels per day pass through the strait at normal times. This could potentially be extremely profitable for Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The danger here is normalization. If access becomes conditional rather than automatic, oil and gas markets suddenly have to deal with this new permanent layer of uncertainty. It would also set a dangerous precedent, which could be abused at other chokepoints around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the future, Iran would not necessarily need to close the strait to influence outcomes. It could slow certain shipments, favor others, or quietly adjust risk for specific destinations or cargoes. Access could depend on timing, ownership, or politics, while still claiming the strait is \u201copen.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is another country in this story that often gets skipped. Oman<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Strait of Hormuz runs through the territorial waters of two states<\/strong>: Iran on the north shore, Oman on the south. That matters because under international maritime law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, Hormuz is treated as a strait used for global navigation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In plain English, ships have the right to transit without asking permission or paying tolls, except for very narrow safety reasons. Even though the strait is not in international waters, no single country legally controls the passage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oman has made clear it does not accept tolls or permission\u2011based transit. Gulf states that rely on the strait to export oil share that view. So do shipping companies, who are wary of any system that turns access into a negotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But law and practice are not the same thing. Iran has shown that drones, missiles, sea mines, and armed speedboats can give real power regardless of legal arguments. That gap between rules and reality is what the markets are now grappling with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran is also pushing for a more formal recognition: acknowledging Tehran\u2019s control over the strait is part of its peace plan demands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/Chart_Brent-WTI-Apr.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nFrom Choke Point to Priced Passage<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Oman Has a Say Too<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The \u201cJoint Venture\u201d Curveball<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n