{"id":241292,"date":"2026-04-08T12:37:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T16:37:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241292"},"modified":"2026-04-09T15:57:44","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T19:57:44","slug":"markets-on-edge-rates-oil-and-geopolitics-collide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/markets-on-edge-rates-oil-and-geopolitics-collide\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets on Edge: Rates, Oil, and Geopolitics Collide"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets are reacting to a powerful mix of rising rates, shifting oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions. IBKR&#8217;s Jeff Praissman is joined by Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy to break down the key signals driving volatility and what investors should watch as inflation data and earnings season take center stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Markets on Edge: Rates, Oil, and Geopolitics Collide\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=bcyst-1a93351-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-369\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 369<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hey everyone, this is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers. It\u2019s my pleasure to welcome back to the IBKR Podcast Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey Scott, how are you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff, I am very happy to be here today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Always love having you come in for our midweek sessions. And like always, no lack of news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No lack of news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exactly. But I do want to kick it off with last week before we get into today and the week ahead. Last week was really kind of the first week of Q2. Obviously, it opened up with some heightened volatility. What market themes or signals stood out most to you during last week\u2019s trading?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Obviously, geopolitical risks, right? Minute by minute, it\u2019s escalating\u2014it\u2019s not, it\u2019s escalating\u2014it\u2019s not. But beyond that, I think what was really driving this market, if you will, is interest rates. We\u2019re seeing them down today, but we saw that 10-year approach 4.40, even pushing up to 4.50 or so based on some inflation concerns. I think that was as big of a concern for the equity markets as really anything else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And what about labor data? Because we had some early April labor data and manufacturing readings. How are they shaping expectations for momentum heading into\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, that March jobs report was certainly pretty impressive following what we saw in February. I think there\u2019s still some question out there about what is really real and what is not. Was it inclusive of the beginning of the Iranian war or not? So I think that is still yet to be determined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In terms of manufacturing, we did see ISM manufacturing pushing up just a little bit, still in expansion territory. There are some lingering headwinds out there, but it is still in expansion territory, and I think it\u2019s the strongest run we\u2019ve seen in about four years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And what asset classes or sectors\u2014there\u2019s obviously some appetite for risk out there\u2014so which ones have stood out in these first couple days of trading?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sure. Information technology has obviously been very volatile, but it has actually remained really strong. If you look overall at stocks like Western Digital and SanDisk, those were stocks that fell when there was some concern, but those rallies were really steep. So, pretty strong. And then some of the consumer staples area\u2014stocks like Costco and Walmart\u2014they fared really well during the risk appetite we saw over the last several weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And now heading into this week\u2014obviously big market news last night, maybe not so much of a surprise for a lot of people, but markets are up. We also have some fundamental economic data coming out as well, with CPI and PPI on the calendar this week. You mentioned inflation earlier\u2014what kind of signals matter most right now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019ll be interesting to see what the data says about price pressures because of the oil spike, and because of rates. The oil spike did start happening, and some of that will be included in these reports that we\u2019re seeing. So the big drawdown we\u2019re seeing today is not going to be reflected in that. The CPI release does cover March. It\u2019s going to be the first inflation print that will fully capture the beginning of the Middle East conflict. So it\u2019ll be really interesting to see. I\u2019m not sure we\u2019re going to be able to glean a lot out of that, because the question and concern is going to be: if that\u2019s behind us, what\u2019s next? So I think there will definitely be some pressure on that report, but it will also be interesting to see what the Fed says about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Right. And what should investors be watching beyond the headlines? Obviously, there are tons of headlines, but going back to revisions or participation rates\u2014any kind of underlying trends besides the constant chaos?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, as I just mentioned, we will get FOMC minutes today. I\u2019m sure they\u2019re going to mention pretty strongly some of the confusion around the Middle East conflict and how that is affecting inflation. But what makes this FOMC minutes release different, I think, is that there\u2019s going to be less context. I don\u2019t think the market is really going to be able to discern where the Fed is going from here. We know how the landscape has changed\u2014from potential two cuts this year to maybe a rate hike later in the year. I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to get any sort of clarity on that whatsoever. So I think what we do need to watch\u2014and it\u2019s hard to look ahead\u2014we\u2019ve got earnings starting next week. We have actually seen a huge uptick in positive guidance across sectors. So will that be able to meet expectations? I think it\u2019s still a very cautious market. You have to really keep things close to the vest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, as always, this has been great. For more from Scott Bauer, you can go to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prospertrading.com\/\">prospertrading.com<\/a>. Also on our website, there are tons of podcasts, webinars, and articles\u2014go to ibkr.com, click on Education, and scroll down to either webinars or podcasts, or even just search for Prosper Trading. Scott, as always, thanks for coming by, and we look forward to our next session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-6\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you so much, Jeff.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are reacting to a powerful mix of rising rates, shifting oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions. IBKR&#8217;s Jeff Praissman is joined by Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy to break down the key signals driving volatility and what investors should watch as inflation data and earnings season take center stage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":241293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[21352,21350,21351,21349,5753,21327,20935,12844,21348,21346,19051,21353,21347,11406,16701],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-241292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-bond-yields-analysis","tag-cpi-and-ppi-data","tag-earnings-season-preview","tag-equity-market-trends","tag-federal-reserve-policy","tag-financial-markets-podcast","tag-geopolitics-and-markets","tag-global-economic-outlook","tag-inflation-trends-2026","tag-interest-rates-outlook","tag-macroeconomic-analysis","tag-market-risk-factors","tag-oil-price-impact","tag-stock-market-volatility","tag-trading-insights","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Markets on Edge: Rates, Oil, and Geopolitics Collide<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241292\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Markets on Edge: Rates, Oil, and Geopolitics Collide | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets are reacting to a powerful mix of rising rates, shifting oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions. 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