Private-sector payroll additions accelerated towards the end of last month to the fastest pace of the year as hiring momentum defies the substantial cyclical risk posed by the Middle East conflict. Worker rosters surged by an average of 26k workers in each of the four weeks during the period that ended March 21, north of the 15.25k print from the previous publication, according to ADP. The numbers bolstered confidence in the government\u2019s latest jobs report. The key BLS indicator has experienced significant revisions in recent years but at 178k, Friday’s release flew past expectations while jumping to a 15-month high. February\u2019s durable goods report featured a strong rebound in business capital expenditure investments, the seventh gain in the last eight months. Despite the headline figure retreating 1.4% month over month (m\/m) and missing the expectation for an unchanged -0.5%, it was the volatile passenger aircraft and defense categories that weighed on performance by dropping 28.6% and 1.1% m\/m as most other segments were positive. More broadly, equipment spending, which is being bolstered by incentive measures in last year\u2019s passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, rose 0.6% m\/m, countering January\u2019s 0.4% decline. Automobiles and primary metals were additional tailwinds, growing 3.1% and 2.2% m\/m. Despite the hostile rhetoric spanning from Washington to Tehran, market turbulence is quite tempered given the circumstances. One consideration is that equity valuations have improved significantly throughout 2026’s drawdown, which has occurred even as analysts have raised profit expectations. Against this backdrop, investors are willing to buy stocks today as Wall Street is poised to rally in two out of three outcomes. Indeed, conditions are supportive of a robust advance if there\u2019s either an end to the conflict or a 45-day ceasefire; however, asset prices are likely to deteriorate if the violence escalates. Furthermore, elevated volatility strengthens the odds of a snapback jump, as any good news in the next few hours could drive more than a 2% surge for the major benchmarks. Such a development would place the indices above their 200-day moving averages, paving the way for a bullish April right before the start of earnings season. Finally, the fourth month of the year is seasonally favorable on a relative basis, with only November offering superior gains historically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Japan\u2019s Leading Index climbed 0.3 points in February to 112.4, matching the economist consensus estimate despite businesses having a cautious outlook, according to the Cabinet Office. The result, a 42-month high, benefited from higher stock prices, stronger consumer sentiment and easing inflation. Conversely, the Coincident Index, a gauge of current conditions, retreated from 117.9 to 116.3, a result of US trade policy concerns and capital markets volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Household spending in Japan sank 1.8% year over year (y\/y) and but climbed 1.5% m\/m, missing the economist consensus estimates for a 0.7% y\/y decline and a monthly 2.6% gain. The disappointing data followed January\u2019s y\/y and m\/m declines of 1% and 2.5%. For the y\/y result, education led the contraction with a 28.2% descent. The transportation and communication category and food group also weakened, dropping 5.9% and 0.5%. Other categories and the extent of their increases dampened the headline decline:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Spending on the fuel, light and water category was unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the eurozone sank from -3.1 in March to -19.2 for this month, a much worse reading than the economist consensus estimate of -7.5. Within the gauge, the current situation component descended from -9.5 to -22.8 and the expectations reading fell from 3.5 to -15.5. The headline, current situation and expectations levels were the lowest since April 2025. While confidence weakened strongly for Germany, which had a current situation score of -38, investors are increasingly concerned that a broader recession is possible. Additionally, views deteriorated for both emerging markets and developed economies. More specifically, the rise in oil prices weighed on survey respondents\u2019 opinions of current conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index sank from 56.6 in February to 49.7 last month, missing the economist consensus expectation of 55.9. It was the lowest reading since November 2025\u2019s 48.4 print. The price component climbed from 63.4 to 75.6 but the other three categories retreated as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Household spending in Australia climbed 4.6% y\/y and 0.3% m\/m during February, matching January\u2019s results, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Relative to January, spending on recreation and culture was up 1.1% while purchases of food expanded by 1%. Expenditures within the hotels, cafes and restaurants category, the health sector and the clothing and footwear segment, furthermore, climbed 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.1%. Among decliners, the transport category, the miscellaneous goods and services classification and the furnishings and household equipment group weakened by 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The number of help wanted advertisements sank 3.1% m\/m in March after a 3.2% jump in February, according to the ANZ-Indeed Australian Jobs Ads measurement. For the three-month period through February, however, overall advertisements were up 2.7% with the private sector showing a 3.2% lift. ANZ notes that minutes of the March RBA Monetary Policy Board depict concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could detract from labor demand while rising living costs could entice idle individuals to seek work. <\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Crude oil prices are jumping north of $117 per barrel today and inching towards a new 2026 high as President Trump\u2019s deadline to come to an agreement with Tehran was set for tonight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":241150,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,12711,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1925,40],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-241181","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","9":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-iran","17":"tag-oil","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCapex Increases In 7 of 8 Months<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nMarkets Rally in 2 Out of 3 Outcomes<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
International Roundup<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Japan\u2019s Leading Indicator Strengthens<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
And Household Spending Continues to Fall<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Sentiment Among European Investors Weakens<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Canada Ivey PMI Plunges<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Australia Household Spending Growth Maintains Steady Gains<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
But Job Listings Dip<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n