{"id":241162,"date":"2026-04-07T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241162"},"modified":"2026-04-08T03:45:33","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T07:45:33","slug":"fear-and-hope-for-iran-war-at-hand-wringing-crossroad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/fear-and-hope-for-iran-war-at-hand-wringing-crossroad\/","title":{"rendered":"Fear and hope for Iran war at hand-wringing crossroad"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Briefing.com Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*Geopolitical angst is in the air, with a key 8:00 p.m. ET deadline tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*Oil futures are on the rise, with concerns about ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*Durable goods orders were weak in February but looked better after transportation was excluded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today is a hand-wringing day if there ever was one. Market participants are dealing with the stress of an 8:00 p.m. ET deadline for Iran to &#8220;open&#8221; the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its power and energy infrastructure and the death of &#8220;a whole civilization&#8221; tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is President Trump&#8217;s proclamation that is running in tandem with his hope that it doesn&#8217;t come to that. Accordingly, the market has some hope that it won&#8217;t come to that either, yet that is running in tandem with a fear that it just might.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The result is an equity market that lacks conviction, an oil market that is frazzled, and a Treasury market that is stuck between growth and inflation concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are down 25 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 136 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 129 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. WTI crude futures are up 2.4% to $115.11\/bbl; the 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.84%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.33%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Iran matter is front-and-center, as it should be. It is the market mover. Everything else is background music\/noise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That includes the rally in health insurance stocks, like Dow component&nbsp;<strong>UnitedHealth (UNH)<\/strong>, after CMS announced a higher-than-expected payment rate for Medicare Advantage plans. It includes Broadcom&#8217;s (AVGO) long-term agreement to develop and supply TPUs to&nbsp;<strong>Google (GOOG\/GOOGL)<\/strong>,&nbsp;<strong>Casey&#8217;s General Stores&#8217; (CASY)<\/strong>&nbsp;addition to the S&amp;P 500 on April 9, Samsung&#8217;s (SSNLF) record Q1 results, and the February Durable Goods Orders report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Specifically, durable goods orders decreased 1.4% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following a downwardly revised 0.5% decline (from 0.0%) in January. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following a downwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.4%) in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness in February was concentrated largely in transportation and capital goods orders. Otherwise, order activity was decent, highlighted by a 0.6% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft\u2014a proxy for business spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latter is a welcome consideration, but of course it predates the Iran war, which has brought its share of unwelcome developments. What it brings in the next 12-24 hours is a thought exercise right now that is exhausting for beleaguered markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted April 7, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">Fear and hope for Iran war at hand-wringing crossroad<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Briefing.com Summary:<\/p>\n<p>*Geopolitical angst is in the air, with a key 8:00 p.m. ET deadline tonight.<\/p>\n<p>*Oil futures are on the rise, with concerns about ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran war.<\/p>\n<p>*Durable goods orders were weak in February but looked better after transportation was excluded.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":240003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":["post-241162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-briefing-com"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fear and hope for Iran war at hand-wringing crossroad<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"*Geopolitical angst is in the air, with a key 8:00 p.m. ET deadline tonight.*Oil futures are on the rise, with concerns about ongoing supply disruptions...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241162\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fear and hope for Iran war at hand-wringing crossroad | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"*Geopolitical angst is in the air, with a key 8:00 p.m. ET deadline tonight.*Oil futures are on the rise, with concerns about ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran war.*Durable goods orders were weak in February but looked better after transportation was excluded.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/fear-and-hope-for-iran-war-at-hand-wringing-crossroad\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-07T13:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-08T07:45:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/backwardation-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. 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