{"id":241139,"date":"2026-04-06T13:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241139"},"modified":"2026-04-07T03:43:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T07:43:13","slug":"the-taco-timeline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/","title":{"rendered":"The TACO Timeline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another day, or in this case, another weekend (a long one, at that) of bluster and battle in the Persian Gulf.&nbsp; All of us are of course glad that both downed pilots were safely rescued, but that newsworthy event was not market moving.&nbsp; Instead, the back-and-forth between the President and Iran is highly relevant to markets, yet there is a perceptible change in investor perception.&nbsp; Quite frankly, stock traders, and to a lesser extent, oil traders, seem to be putting less emphasis on the comments coming out of either side.&nbsp; Let\u2019s examine the data\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The two tables below highlight a series of pronouncements by President Trump and\/or Iranian official sources and the reactions of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) and June Brent Futures (COIL).&nbsp; Bear in mind that headlines are streaming by as I type this, though at noon EDT both SPX and COIL are up (+0.3 and 0.4%, respectively) and yields are essentially unchanged despite a renewal of rhetoric from both parties:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dates-of-various-pronouncements-on-iran\"><strong><em>Dates of Various Pronouncements on Iran<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"728\" height=\"376\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-9.png\" alt=\"Dates of Various Pronouncements on Iran\" class=\"wp-image-241140 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-9.png 728w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-9-700x362.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-9-300x155.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 728px; aspect-ratio: 728\/376;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Source: <\/em><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/04\/05\/world\/middleeast\/trump-strait-of-hormuz-deadline-iran-war.html\"><strong><em>New York Times<\/em><\/strong><\/a><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-market-reactions-to-above-comments\"><strong><em>Market Reactions to Above Comments<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1011\" height=\"180\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-10.png\" alt=\"Market Reactions to Above Comments\" class=\"wp-image-241141 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-10.png 1011w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-10-700x125.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-10-300x53.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-10-768x137.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1011px) 100vw, 1011px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1011px; aspect-ratio: 1011\/180;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Sources: Interactive Brokers, Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I have tended to refrain from the term \u201cTACO\u201d in favor of \u201cTrump Put\u201d because the former can be interpreted as pejorative.&nbsp;&nbsp; Both refer to a concept that I believe is accurate \u2013 that the President would like to see higher stocks and lower bond yields.&nbsp; Throughout his terms in office, he has either altered policies or used rhetoric to influence those numbers.&nbsp; It is widely perceived that he views the level of major stock indices as a barometer of his economic performance, and as a long-time real estate developer who socializes with others in that field, he is keenly aware of the cost of funding projects and how rates affect their affordability to buyers. &nbsp;That is why when we have discussed the \u201cTrump Put\u201d recently, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/ok-we-learned-the-strike-price-on-the-trump-put\/\">we have asserted two possible strike prices<\/a>: 6,500 for SPX and 4.45% on the 10-Year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is of course another market-determined price that the President desires to influence, and that is the price of energy.&nbsp; Trump used the phrase \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/drill-baby-drill-the-surprising-history-of-donald-trumps-fossil-fuel-slogan\/\">drill, baby, drill<\/a>\u201d throughout his 2024 campaign as a simple reminder that he wanted lower oil prices and saw increased domestic production as a means of achieving that outcome.&nbsp; Unfortunately, his administration\u2019s moves against Iran have created the opposite outcome.&nbsp; We can debate the cost\/benefit analysis of the Iran conflict and the goals of de-nuclearizing that country versus the costs of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz (and I\u2019m sure many of you will in the comments below), but from a global market viewpoint, the situation in the Gulf is highly detrimental in the short-term to keeping pump prices lower.&nbsp; The timeline of extracting and delivering crude oil, refined products, and liquefied natural gas is long and slow and unable to quickly change the supply\/demand imbalance that world markets currently face.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nonetheless, stock traders have switched their mindset.&nbsp; On Friday, March 27<sup>th<\/sup>, stocks sold off hard after Thursday afternoon\u2019s announcement that the President extended the 5-day ceasefire he announced on Monday.&nbsp; Stocks plunged for the second day in a row while short-term rates tumbled on a flight-to-safety bid.&nbsp; Since then, however, stocks have bounced and seem relatively impervious to the latest series of pronouncements. Those include threats of a bombing campaign that is set to begin as early as this evening, which was ameliorated overnight by news reports of talk of a 45-day ceasefire.&nbsp; A cynic would note that the bluster occurred on a Saturday, when markets are closed, and that the ceasefire discussions were leaked after overnight index futures had opened lower, but the bigger \u201ctell\u201d was that stocks barely budged when <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/world\/ceasefire-proposal-reopening-strait-of-hormuz-9.7153910\">Iran rejected the latest ceasefire proposal<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stock traders are implicitly betting that the goalposts will move once again amidst some market-friendly statements.&nbsp; Call it what you will, \u201cTACO\u201d or \u201cTrump Put\u201d, but either way, on a day when almost all of Europe and much of Asia were closed for Easter Monday, US investors are tacitly acknowledging their belief that one will be arriving in short order.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Another day, or in this case, another weekend (a long one, at that) of bluster and battle in the Persian Gulf.  All of us are of course glad that both downed pilots were safely rescued, but that newsworthy event was not market moving.  Instead, the back-and-forth between the President and Iran is highly relevant to markets, yet there is a perceptible change in investor perception.  Quite frankly, stock traders, and to a lesser extent, oil traders, seem to be putting less emphasis on the comments coming out of either side.  Let\u2019s examine the data\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":241142,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-241139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The TACO Timeline | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Another day, or in this case, another weekend (a long one, at that) of bluster and battle in the Persian Gulf. 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Quite frankly, stock traders, and to a lesser extent, oil traders, seem to be putting less emphasis on the comments coming out of either side. Let\u2019s examine the data\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-06T17:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-07T07:43:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/trump-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/the-taco-timeline\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/the-taco-timeline\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"The TACO Timeline\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-04-06T17:30:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-04-07T07:43:13+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/the-taco-timeline\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 703,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 6,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/the-taco-timeline\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/trump-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Insights\",\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/the-taco-timeline\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/the-taco-timeline\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/the-taco-timeline\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"The TACO Timeline | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/the-taco-timeline\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/the-taco-timeline\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/trump-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-04-06T17:30:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-04-07T07:43:13+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Another day, or in this case, another weekend (a long one, at that) of bluster and battle in the Persian Gulf. 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. 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Let\u2019s examine the data\u2026","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus US","article_published_time":"2026-04-06T17:30:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-04-07T07:43:13+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":563,"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/trump-featured-img.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Steve Sosnick","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Steve Sosnick","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/"},"author":{"name":"Steve Sosnick","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549"},"headline":"The TACO Timeline","datePublished":"2026-04-06T17:30:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-07T07:43:13+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/"},"wordCount":703,"commentCount":6,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/trump-featured-img.jpg","articleSection":["IBKR Insights","Macro","North America","Region","Securities","Text Articles","Traders' Insight"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/","name":"The TACO Timeline | IBKR Campus US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-taco-timeline\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/trump-featured-img.jpg","datePublished":"2026-04-06T17:30:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-07T07:43:13+00:00","description":"Another day, or in this case, another weekend (a long one, at that) of bluster and battle in the Persian Gulf. All of us are of course glad that both downed pilots were safely rescued, but that newsworthy event was not market moving. Instead, the back-and-forth between the President and Iran is highly relevant to markets, yet there is a perceptible change in investor perception. Quite frankly, stock traders, and to a lesser extent, oil traders, seem to be putting less emphasis on the comments coming out of either side. 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