{"id":241053,"date":"2026-04-02T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241053"},"modified":"2026-04-03T03:56:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T07:56:13","slug":"discipline-matters-when-markets-are-uncertain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/discipline-matters-when-markets-are-uncertain\/","title":{"rendered":"Discipline matters when markets are uncertain"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Economic consequences:\u00a0A prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and sustained higher energy prices loom over investors and the economy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Potential for a rally:\u00a0A sudden pause in hostilities or productive negotiations have the potential to lead to a sharp one-day market rally.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prioritizing quality:\u00a0We favor staying invested but prioritizing quality. We believe discipline matters when navigating uncertain environments.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The memory of April 9, 2025, looms large over investors. That was the day the Trump administration paused tariffs for 90 days, one week after unveiling sweeping new ones on \u201cLiberation Day\u201d on April 2. Markets surged more than 9% in a single session, making it one of the three best days for the S&amp;P 500 Index in the past 30 years.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html#1\">1<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;For those who stuck with their long-term financial plan, that day was welcome. For those who sold stocks when the tariffs were announced, it was a reminder that they\u2019d locked in their losses. The lesson is simple but can be difficult to apply in real time: Periods of uncertainty often produce the very days investors may not want to miss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That challenge has been front and center since the escalation of the conflict with Iran. The economic consequences of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and sustained higher energy prices are easy to understand.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-inflation-fed-measure.html\">Inflation<\/a>&nbsp;pressures rise, growth slows, and margins are squeezed. At the same time, the possibility of a sudden pause in hostilities or productive negotiations has the potential to lead to a sharp one-day rally in stocks. We saw this clearly last week:<sup><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stock futures were higher the night of March 22 into March 23 following signals from President Trump that the US and Iran were working toward an agreement.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html#2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>By the end of the week, that optimism faded, and concerns about a widening conflict resurfaced. Markets responded as quickly as sentiment changed.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html#3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>By March 27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had officially entered a correction, defined as a decline of 10% to 20% from the recent peak.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html#4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The technicals have weakened, including the S&amp;P 500 Index, which fell below its 200-day moving average,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html#5\">5<\/a>\u00a0<\/sup>may be a harbinger of further near-term weakness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-are-markets-telling-us\">What are markets telling us?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the beginning of the conflict, I\u2019ve been consistently asked how long it would have to last before fearing an economic&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-a-recession.html\">recession<\/a>. I\u2019d prefer the market to provide that answer. For example, the oil market has also been telling an important story. Prices have been in backwardation, suggesting that investors expect energy prices to be meaningfully lower in the months ahead.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html#6\">6<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;In other words, the market doesn\u2019t seem to believe today\u2019s pressure will last indefinitely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, credit spreads have widened, although only moderately.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html#7\">7<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Inflation expectations have moved higher but remain within a range that would still qualify as price stability.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html#8\">8<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Markets have begun to assign a small probability to a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-federal-reserve-inflation.html\">Federal Reserve<\/a>&nbsp;rate hikelater this year, which is an unsettling thought but one that\u2019s unlikely to materialize.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html#9\">9<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Inflation driven by geopolitical conflict may be more likely to be viewed as a temporary shock than a persistent structural problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, expectations for a synchronized global expansion in 2026 have faded. At the start of the year, markets were pricing in a broad improvement in growth across regions. That outlook has become less likely. A slowdown now seems more probable. Asia faces headwinds from higher energy costs combined with weaker currencies. Europe is similarly constrained by rising energy prices. As markets reprice for slower growth, we\u2019ve moved back to an emphasis on higher-quality, larger-cap stocks and US dollar exposure for the time being.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The longer geopolitical stress persists, the greater the drag on global growth. This doesn\u2019t require advanced economic theory to understand. Yet it\u2019s worth noting that market behavior has been more orderly than many might have expected. The takeaway remains clear:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We favor staying invested but prioritizing quality, including US assets for now.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Abrupt exits from stocks may be poor timing precisely when markets may be most prone to sharp recoveries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In uncertain environments, we believe discipline matters more than conviction in any single outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-to-watch-this-week\">What to watch this week<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Date<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Region<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Event<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Why it matters<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">March 30<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Germany<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Provides an early signal for euro area price pressures and potential European Central Bank (ECB) policy direction<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">March 31<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Consumer confidence&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Gauges household sentiment, a key driver of consumer spending and Federal Reserve policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">JOLTS Job Openings<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Gauges labor market tightness, a key driver of consumer spending and Federal Reserve policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">China<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Manufacturing&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-purchasing-managers-index-pmi.html\">Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index<\/a>&nbsp;(PMI)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Offers insight into global growth momentum and demand for commodities and manufactured goods<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">April 1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">ADP Employment Report<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Preview of payroll trends<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Gauges business activity and economic momentum<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">April 2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Global<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Easter-related early market closures<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Holiday-thinned trading conditions can amplify market moves and volatility<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">April 3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Nonfarm payrolls<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Most important monthly labor-market report; market reaction may be delayed due to global holiday closures<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-footnotes\">Footnotes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1Source: Bloomberg, L.P., based on the one-day return (+9.5%) of the S&amp;P 500 Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2Source: Bloomberg, L.P., based on the S&amp;P 500 Index. Futures had risen by more than 2% ahead of the market open on Monday, March 23, 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3Source: Bloomberg, L.P., based on the return of the S&amp;P 500 Index on March 26, 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4Source: Bloomberg, L.P., March 27, 2026, based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which peaked this year on Feb. 10, 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5Source: Bloomberg, L.P., March 27, 2026<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>6Source: Bloomberg, L.P., March 26, 2026, based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil forward prices. The forward price of crude oil is the predetermined price agreed upon today for buying or selling a specific quantity of oil at a set future date. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a type of light, sweet crude oil that comes from the US.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>7Source: Bloomberg, L.P., March 26, 2026, based on the option-adjusted spread of the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>8Source: Bloomberg, L.P., March 26, 2026, based on the 5-year US inflation breakeven. A breakeven inflation rate is a market-derived estimate of future inflation, calculated by comparing the yield on a standard government bond (nominal) to the yield on a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) of the same maturity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>9Source: Bloomberg, L.P., March 26, 2026, based on the fed funds implied rate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted April 1, 2026 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/discipline-matters-when-markets-uncertain.html?utm_campaign=thirdparty&amp;utm_source=ibrokers&amp;utm_medium=referralference\">Discipline matters when markets are uncertain<\/a> by Invesco US<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NA5347729<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investments cannot be made directly in an index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ADP Employment Report measures nonfarm private payrolls. It is published monthly in collaboration with Moody\u2019s Analytics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Backwardation occurs when the current price, or spot price, of a commodity is higher than the prices in the futures market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes US dollar-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility, and financial issuers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in consumer prices and is a commonly cited measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Credit spread is the difference in yield between bonds of similar maturity but with different credit quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of the 30 largest, most widely held stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fed funds implied rate is the difference between the spot rate and the futures rate, which is an interest rate that can be calculated for any security with a futures contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation is the rate at which the general price level for goods and services is increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics produces data on job openings, hires, and separations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Larger, more established companies may be unable to respond quickly to new competitive challenges, such as changes in consumer tastes or innovative smaller competitors. Returns on investments in large capitalization companies could trail the returns on investments in smaller companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Option-adjusted spread (OAS) is the yield spread that must be added to a benchmark yield curve to discount a security\u2019s payments to match its market price, using a dynamic pricing model that accounts for embedded options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Purchasing Managers\u2019 Indexes (PMI) are based on monthly surveys of companies worldwide and gauge business conditions within the manufacturing and services sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500\u00ae Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic, and political conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of March 31, 2026. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economic consequences: A prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and sustained higher energy prices loom over investors and the 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