{"id":241026,"date":"2026-04-01T12:53:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T16:53:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=241026"},"modified":"2026-04-02T04:15:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T08:15:00","slug":"a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/","title":{"rendered":"A Necessary, But Not Sufficient, Condition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Markets zoomed yesterday on a series of reports that implied a potential quick end to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf.&nbsp; Obviously, any cessation of outright warfare would be a good thing \u2013 hopefully no one wants to see casualties and major disruptions\u2013 but the notion that it might occur without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seemed rather incomplete.&nbsp; A ceasefire is a necessary condition for a resolution; reopening the Strait is the only condition sufficient to return global economies to a state of relative normalcy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday\u2019s rally was quite stunning, no matter how we look at it.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) rallied 2.9% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) by 3.4%.&nbsp; We haven\u2019t seen one-day moves that large since May 12, 2025, when SPX and NDX jumped by 3.3% and 4.0%, respectively.&nbsp; That was about one month after the giant post-\u201cLiberation Day\u201d rallies of April 9<sup>th<\/sup>, when those indices zoomed by 9.5% and 12%.&nbsp; The combination of yesterday\u2019s monster rally and today\u2019s comparatively minor, but still substantial, 1% advance has brought us back to levels not seen since (\u2026 double-checks notes\u2026) one week ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-weeks-spx-red-green-candles-ndx-blue-line\"><strong><em>2-Weeks, SPX (red\/green candles), NDX (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"905\" height=\"517\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-1.png\" alt=\"2-Weeks, SPX (red\/green candles), NDX (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-241027 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-1.png 905w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-1-700x400.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-1-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-1-768x439.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 905px) 100vw, 905px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 905px; aspect-ratio: 905\/517;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How about that for some \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/socially-acceptable-volatility\/?query=socially%20acceptable%20volatility&amp;query_id=ZXN9y_1sRkyg-N1AvfVstg&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=ZXN9y_1sRkyg-N1AvfVstg\">socially acceptable volatility<\/a>\u201d?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is difficult to know exactly what led to stock traders\u2019 extraordinary enthusiasm.&nbsp; I suspect it was a combination of factors, with the end of the first quarter playing a significant role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For starters, crude futures fell, but not to a degree that might have suggested that oil traders viewed an imminent end to the bottlenecks affecting that commodity. &nbsp;But it was also the expiration day for May futures on Brent (COIL) and WTI (CL).&nbsp; Big moves can occur on expiration in already volatile commodities, particularly when there are supply or demand constraints.&nbsp; May Brent futures rose by $4.94 to a life-of-contract high of $118.27 yesterday, while the June contract fell by $3.18.&nbsp; Both months\u2019 WTI contracts fell yesterday, with May -$1.46 and June -$2.98.&nbsp; This morning, both June contracts are down about $2.&nbsp; There is clearly some incremental normality being priced in, particularly in longer-term contracts since last week, but little that signals an imminent return to pre-conflict pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cl-futures-term-structure-top-today-yellow-yesterday-orange-1-week-ago-red-1-month-ago-purple-with-changes-vs-today-bottom\"><strong><em>CL Futures Term Structure (top), Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange), 1-Week Ago (red), 1-Month Ago (purple); with Changes vs. Today (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"948\" height=\"521\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-2.png\" alt=\"CL Futures Term Structure (top), Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange), 1-Week Ago (red), 1-Month Ago (purple); with Changes vs. Today (bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-241028 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-2.png 948w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-2-700x385.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-2-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-2-768x422.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 948px) 100vw, 948px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 948px; aspect-ratio: 948\/521;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cl-futures-term-structure-top-today-yellow-yesterday-orange-1-week-ago-red-1-month-ago-purple-with-changes-vs-today-bottom-0\"><strong><em>CL Futures Term Structure (top), Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange), 1-Week Ago (red), 1-Month Ago (purple); with Changes vs. Today (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"946\" height=\"527\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-3.png\" alt=\"CL Futures Term Structure (top), Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange), 1-Week Ago (red), 1-Month Ago (purple); with Changes vs. Today (bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-241029 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-3.png 946w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-3-700x390.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-3-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/image-3-768x428.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 946px) 100vw, 946px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 946px; aspect-ratio: 946\/527;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The quarter-end seems to have motivated at least some of the buying yesterday in equities.&nbsp; The selling throughout the course of the past month, which accelerated late last week, must have left at least some institutions with higher cash allocations than normal and some traders with uncomfortable short positions.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/no-more-words\/\">On Thursday, we noted<\/a> that skews in SPX options had notably changed, with boosted implied volatilities in upside strikes.&nbsp; Some of that was undoubtedly driven by speculators hoping for a quick bounce like we saw last year, but I believe the bulk of that activity resulted from under-invested institutions insuring against underperformance and rally-selling traders hedging against a major reversal.&nbsp; Although traders are not necessarily focused on the calendar, portfolio managers who file quarterly reports are.&nbsp; They probably had second thoughts about appearing poised to miss a potential turnaround by carrying too much cash for their investors\u2019 liking.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today we see the rally continuing.&nbsp; Some of that may be attributable to the first of the month; some might reflect a change in short-term momentum; some are certainly hoping that the President\u2019s speech tonight could bring a meaningful change to the events in the region.&nbsp; By tomorrow, we\u2019ll get a clearer sense of how to attribute those factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets zoomed yesterday on a series of reports that implied a potential quick end to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf.\u00a0 Obviously, any cessation of outright warfare would be a good thing \u2013 hopefully no one wants to see casualties and major disruptions\u2013 but the notion that it might occur without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seemed rather incomplete.\u00a0 A ceasefire is a necessary condition for a resolution; reopening the Strait is the only condition sufficient to return global economies to a state of relative normalcy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":239166,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-241026","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Necessary, But Not Sufficient, Condition<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets zoomed yesterday on a series of reports that implied a potential quick end to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf.\u00a0 Obviously, any cessation of...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Necessary, But Not Sufficient, Condition | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets zoomed yesterday on a series of reports that implied a potential quick end to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf.\u00a0 Obviously, any cessation of outright warfare would be a good thing \u2013 hopefully no one wants to see casualties and major disruptions\u2013 but the notion that it might occur without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seemed rather incomplete.\u00a0 A ceasefire is a necessary condition for a resolution; reopening the Strait is the only condition sufficient to return global economies to a state of relative normalcy.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-01T16:53:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-02T08:15:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"A Necessary, But Not Sufficient, Condition\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-04-01T16:53:06+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-04-02T08:15:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 637,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 1,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/02\\\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Insights\",\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"A Necessary, But Not Sufficient, Condition | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/02\\\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-04-01T16:53:06+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-04-02T08:15:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Markets zoomed yesterday on a series of reports that implied a potential quick end to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf.\u00a0 Obviously, any cessation of outright warfare would be a good thing \u2013 hopefully no one wants to see casualties and major disruptions\u2013 but the notion that it might occur without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seemed rather incomplete.\u00a0 A ceasefire is a necessary condition for a resolution; reopening the Strait is the only condition sufficient to return global economies to a state of relative normalcy.\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ReadAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\\\/#primaryimage\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/02\\\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/02\\\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"width\": 1000,\n\t            \"height\": 563\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebSite\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"SearchAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"EntryPoint\",\n\t                        \"urlTemplate\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"\n\t                    },\n\t                    \"query-input\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"PropertyValueSpecification\",\n\t                        \"valueRequired\": true,\n\t                        \"valueName\": \"search_term_string\"\n\t                    }\n\t                }\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"alternateName\": \"IBKR\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"logo\": {\n\t                \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t                \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\n\t                \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"width\": 669,\n\t                \"height\": 669,\n\t                \"caption\": \"Interactive Brokers\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"publishingPrinciples\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/about-ibkr-campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"ethicsPolicy\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/cyber-security-notice\\\/\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Person\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.\",\n\t            \"sameAs\": [\n\t                \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkr.com\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/steve-sosnick\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"A Necessary, But Not Sufficient, Condition","description":"Markets zoomed yesterday on a series of reports that implied a potential quick end to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf.\u00a0 Obviously, any cessation of...","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241026\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"A Necessary, But Not Sufficient, Condition | IBKR Campus US","og_description":"Markets zoomed yesterday on a series of reports that implied a potential quick end to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf.\u00a0 Obviously, any cessation of outright warfare would be a good thing \u2013 hopefully no one wants to see casualties and major disruptions\u2013 but the notion that it might occur without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seemed rather incomplete.\u00a0 A ceasefire is a necessary condition for a resolution; reopening the Strait is the only condition sufficient to return global economies to a state of relative normalcy.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus US","article_published_time":"2026-04-01T16:53:06+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-04-02T08:15:00+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":563,"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Steve Sosnick","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Steve Sosnick","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/"},"author":{"name":"Steve Sosnick","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549"},"headline":"A Necessary, But Not Sufficient, Condition","datePublished":"2026-04-01T16:53:06+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-02T08:15:00+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/"},"wordCount":637,"commentCount":1,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg","articleSection":["IBKR Insights","Macro","North America","Region","Securities","Text Articles","Traders' Insight"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/","name":"A Necessary, But Not Sufficient, Condition | IBKR Campus US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg","datePublished":"2026-04-01T16:53:06+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-02T08:15:00+00:00","description":"Markets zoomed yesterday on a series of reports that implied a potential quick end to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf.\u00a0 Obviously, any cessation of outright warfare would be a good thing \u2013 hopefully no one wants to see casualties and major disruptions\u2013 but the notion that it might occur without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seemed rather incomplete.\u00a0 A ceasefire is a necessary condition for a resolution; reopening the Strait is the only condition sufficient to return global economies to a state of relative normalcy.","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg","width":1000,"height":563},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus US","description":"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization","name":"Interactive Brokers","alternateName":"IBKR","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","width":669,"height":669,"caption":"Interactive Brokers"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/about-ibkr-campus\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/cyber-security-notice\/"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549","name":"Steve Sosnick","description":"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/stock-up-down-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241026\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/239166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241026"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=241026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}