{"id":240668,"date":"2026-03-24T12:48:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T16:48:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=240668"},"modified":"2026-03-24T17:19:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T21:19:49","slug":"gop-vs-dems-party-nomination-odds-for-2028-presidential-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/gop-vs-dems-party-nomination-odds-for-2028-presidential-race\/","title":{"rendered":"GOP Vs. Dems: Party Nomination Odds for 2028 Presidential Race: March 24, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the midterms approach and odds shift for who will secure governor, Senate and House seats across the country, so are the chances of who will win the nominations for the Republican and Democratic parties to compete in the 2028 presidential contest. For the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=745923968%7C20280901%7C7%7C2028\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">GOP<\/a>, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and current President Donald J. Trump are sporting the highest likelihoods of 36%, 28% and 6%. The <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=745923962%7C20280901%7C5%7C2028&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Democrats<\/a>, meanwhile, are led by California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York House of Representatives Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who carry prospects of 28%, 10% and 10%. The Dems have a wider selection of candidates relative to their counterparts, however, with Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, Pete Buttigieg and Wes Moore at 9%, 6%, 6% and 2%. Finally, the final race is essentially a dead heat, with the Dems maintaining a slim <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=745923978%7C20290107%7C2%7C2028%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">advantage<\/a> against the GOP although both parties have near 50% probabilities of controlling the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"610\" height=\"786\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-102.png\" alt=\"chances of various republicans securing the party's nomination to run for president.\" class=\"wp-image-240669 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-102.png 610w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-102-300x387.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 610px) 100vw, 610px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 610px; aspect-ratio: 610\/786;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"609\" height=\"786\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-103.png\" alt=\"chances of various republicans securing the party's nomination to run for president.\" class=\"wp-image-240670 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-103.png 609w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-103-300x387.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 609px; aspect-ratio: 609\/786;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"202\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-104-1100x202.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240671 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-104-1100x202.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-104-700x129.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-104-300x55.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-104-768x141.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-104-1536x282.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-104-2048x376.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/202;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 24, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the midterms approach and odds shift for who will secure governor, Senate and House seats across the country, so are the chances of who will win the nominations for the Republican and Democratic parties to compete in the 2028 presidential contest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":222384,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-240668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GOP Vs. 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