{"id":240653,"date":"2026-03-24T10:45:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T14:45:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=240653"},"modified":"2026-03-26T04:39:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T08:39:01","slug":"why-u-s-energy-stocks-and-gold-could-win-big","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/why-u-s-energy-stocks-and-gold-could-win-big\/","title":{"rendered":"Why U.S. Energy Stocks and Gold Could Win Big"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Since hostilities began in the Middle East three weeks ago, I\u2019ve urged investors to stay calm and resist the temptation to panic-sell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While I still stand by that advice, it\u2019s important to point out that this conflict isn\u2019t resolving as quickly as initially expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation has escalated, and the economic consequences are becoming clearer. We\u2019re witnessing what I\u2019d call a two-speed oil crisis, and understanding that split might be helpful in positioning your portfolio in the coming weeks and potentially months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cReal\u201d Oil Price Could Be Much Higher<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the U.S. benchmark, topped $100 per barrel on Thursday of last week. To be sure, that\u2019s elevated, but the spike was much worse in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Oil<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The real story is what\u2019s happening in markets that fly under many investors\u2019 radars. In Oman, for instance, crude reportedly hit a record $173 per barrel last week,<\/a> surpassing even the 2008 financial crisis spike. The gap between Oman and U.S. prices now stands at more than $70 per barrel,<\/a> according to the Kobeissi Letter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s one of the largest divergences on record, and it\u2019s a reminder that the commonly quoted benchmarks\u2014WTI and Brent\u2014reflect U.S. and North Sea supply conditions, not the crisis that\u2019s unfolding in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What this tells me is that Western oil prices are understating the severity of the global shortage. If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, prices here in the U.S. will inevitably catch up as inventories are drawn down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the U.S. Is Better Positioned Than You Might Think<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Having said that, the good news for American investors is that the U.S. has never been better insulated from a Middle Eastern energy shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Domestic production is strong, with output nearing 14 million barrels every day, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) has already begun releasing 400 million barrels<\/a> from member countries\u2019 emergency reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BBVA\u2019s latest analysis projects the U.S. can maintain growth of around 2.5% this year,<\/a> cushioned by high domestic production and strong internal demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, a Morgan Stanley study of the past 75 years found that the S&P 500 has risen an average of 8.4%<\/a> in the 12 months following sudden external shocks like wars and energy crises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pain Americans May Feel<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Gas prices have already climbed nearly $1 per gallon in a single month. According to an analysis by a group of economists, including a former member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, the typical household will pay an extra $740 in gas costs this year.<\/a> This would effectively wipe out the tax refunds under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the conflict\u2019s price tag keeps growing. The Pentagon is seeking more than $200 billion from Congress to fund the war, layered on top of the nearly $39 trillion in national debt I flagged in my last post. Every dollar spent is a dollar borrowed, and the fiscal pressure is building.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe Is the Canary in the Coal Mine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

European natural gas storage is currently below 30%,<\/a> a five-year low, heading into the critical refill season before winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Natural<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

After severing dependence on Russian pipeline gas in 2022, Europe became heavily reliant on LNG imports. Much of it is made in Qatar and transits through the Strait of Hormuz. There\u2019s no viable alternative route.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The damage may be lasting. Iran\u2019s retaliatory strikes on Qatari infrastructure have knocked out 17% of Qatar\u2019s LNG export capacity, and QatarEnergy\u2019s CEO told Reuters last week that repairs could take three to five years.<\/a> As I see it, that\u2019s a structural loss for the global LNG market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consequences are severe. Capital Economics estimates that oil at $125 or higher could be enough to tip Europe into recession.<\/a> Markets are now pricing in two interest rate hikes in the eurozone this year, a dramatic reversal from the rate cuts everyone expected just weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where I See the Opportunities<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Right now, two themes stand out to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One, U.S. energy producers are the clear beneficiaries. The sector hit a new all-time high on Friday, and at $130 oil, domestic producers capture roughly $400 billion in additional revenue, according to a recent Carlyle report.<\/a> Goldman Sachs has identified five top oil pricks<\/a> with favorable risk-reward profiles, including ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Cenovus Energy, Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"U.S.<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And two, gold\u2019s sell-off looks like an opportunity to me. The metal dropped nearly 5% last Thursday, falling below $4,600 per ounce, as rising yields and a stronger dollar continued to create short-term headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the long-term case is only getting stronger. A $200 billion war spending request on top of record national debt, growing stagflation risks and a global energy crisis that could persist for years. These are precisely the conditions that have historically supported gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Again, the U.S. appears to be better positioned for this crisis than almost any other major economy on earth. Domestic energy production, strategic reserves and lower import dependence provide genuine protection. The investors who maintain discipline\u2014who own energy, hold gold and resist the urge to flee to cash\u2014are the ones I believe will be best positioned when this chapter closes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted March 23, 2026 – Why U.S. Energy Stocks and Gold Could Win Big<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this\/these website(s) and is not responsible for its\/their content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of U.S. Global Investors Funds held any of the securities mentioned in this article as of 12\/31\/2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500, or Standard & Poor\u2019s 500 Index, is a stock market index tracking the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index is a modified, equal-weighted index tracking U.S. companies involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since hostilities began in the Middle East three weeks ago, I\u2019ve urged investors to stay calm and resist the temptation to panic-sell.<\/p>\n

While I still stand by that advice, it\u2019s important to point out that this conflict isn\u2019t resolving as quickly as initially expected.<\/p>\n

The situation has escalated, and the economic consequences are becoming clearer. We\u2019re witnessing what I\u2019d call a two-speed oil crisis, and understanding that split might be helpful in positioning your portfolio in the coming weeks and potentially months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":226104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13633],"class_list":{"0":"post-240653","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-us-global-investors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy U.S. Energy Stocks and Gold Could Win Big<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Since hostilities began in the Middle East three weeks ago, I\u2019ve urged investors to stay calm and resist the temptation to panic-sell.While I still...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240653\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why U.S. Energy Stocks and Gold Could Win Big | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Since hostilities began in the Middle East three weeks ago, I\u2019ve urged investors to stay calm and resist the temptation to panic-sell.While I still stand by that advice, it\u2019s important to point out that this conflict isn\u2019t resolving as quickly as initially expected.The situation has escalated, and the economic consequences are becoming clearer. 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