{"id":240609,"date":"2026-03-23T12:55:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T16:55:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=240609"},"modified":"2026-03-24T05:04:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T09:04:47","slug":"ok-we-learned-the-strike-price-on-the-trump-put","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/ok-we-learned-the-strike-price-on-the-trump-put\/","title":{"rendered":"OK, We Learned the Strike Price on the \u201cTrump Put\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Surprises of the sort that we got this morning should no longer be surprising.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\/\">On Friday, we mused<\/a> that while some market participants were banking on the concept of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d, the strike price on that mythical put was murky at best.&nbsp; Well, it didn\u2019t take long to discover the answer.&nbsp; This morning, around 7AM EDT, we learned that the strike price was either 6,500 on ES futures and\/or 4.45% on 10-year yields.&nbsp; Whether we call it \u201cTACO\u201d or a put exercise, it\u2019s what investors wanted to hear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[Coincidentally, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/looking-ahead-to-december-and-beyond\/\">on December 4<sup>th<\/sup> we published<\/a> our 2026 price targets of 6,500 for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and 4.45% for the 10-Year Yield.&nbsp; Whether it comes to basketball or investing, I am not foolish enough to declare victory before the end of the first quarter.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason for today\u2019s justifiable enthusiasm was the <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/116278232362967212\">following post on Truth Social<\/a>.&nbsp; It was modified a few minutes later to correct spelling, but the message was the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"484\" height=\"282\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-99.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240615 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-99.png 484w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-99-300x175.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 484px) 100vw, 484px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 484px; aspect-ratio: 484\/282;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/116278232362967212\"><em>Truth Social<\/em><\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prior to the social media post, things were looking somewhat bleak in pre-market trading.&nbsp; Pre-market ES futures were trading almost 1% lower after sharp declines in Asia and Europe.&nbsp; Bond losses were more subdued, but the 10-year yield was 7 basis points higher, nonetheless.&nbsp; We can see the instantaneous reversals in the chart below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Today, ES June Futures (1-Minute red\/green candles, right scale), ZN June Futures (blue line, left scale)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"520\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-96.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240612 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-96.png 900w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-96-700x404.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-96-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-96-768x444.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 900px; aspect-ratio: 900\/520;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The prices of May Brent (COIL) and WTI (CL) crude plunged similarly and simultaneously, for very good reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Today, CL June Futures (1-Minute red\/green candles), COIL June Futures (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1021\" height=\"573\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240611 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97.png 1021w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97-700x393.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97-768x431.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1021px) 100vw, 1021px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1021px; aspect-ratio: 1021\/573;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following, more granular chart, shows an interesting anomaly.&nbsp; Note the small spike lower in May Brent crude futures (COIL) at 10:49 GMT, about 15 minutes before the social media post.&nbsp; That seems a bit, um, convenient for whomever sold the futures aggressively.&nbsp; (We saw a small spike in ES futures a few seconds later, proving our assertion that stock futures are using oil futures as a \u201clead\u201d.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Today, COIL May Futures, 1-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"898\" height=\"494\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-98.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240614 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-98.png 898w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-98-700x385.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-98-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-98-768x422.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 898px) 100vw, 898px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 898px; aspect-ratio: 898\/494;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What then should investors do if circumstances in the Persian Gulf have indeed changed?&nbsp; For starters, it remains sensible for equity traders to continue to follow developments in oil and bonds.&nbsp; They remain most sensitive to the changing situation around the Strait of Hormuz, and if something in the region changes, oil, then bonds, will reflect it first.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quite frankly, oil traders have the ability to be laser-focused on the events that affect their commodity.&nbsp; They are purely pricing changes in supply and demand for their products and thus are less distracted by the other factors that affect stock prices.&nbsp; Energy prices certainly have effects on perceptions about inflation, which then directly affect bond prices.&nbsp; Both factors, along with myriad others, then play into stock valuations, though the relationships between them and earnings\/revenues\/cash flows can be a bit murkier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can see from the chart below that SPX has given back about half its intraday gains in the time it\u2019s taken me to write this piece.&nbsp; We also see that the 200-day moving average, which briefly offered support last week, offered resistance today.&nbsp; We have not come close to breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, nor have we made sufficient progress to turn shorter- and longer-term moving averages positive.&nbsp; Your risk tolerance should decide whether selling rallies remains the better short-term strategy, or whether nimble, two-sided trading remains better suited for you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even under the best circumstances, we don\u2019t know when or if tankers will be transiting the Strait anytime soon, whether the ceasefire &#8211; for more than the initial five-day period, and the extent to which a combination of higher insurance rates and destruction of regional oil and gas facilities will keep energy prices elevated.&nbsp; It is indeed encouraging to see a pivot from the President this morning.&nbsp; Whether or not this has led to a meaningful change in policy or simply a one-day bout of \u201csocially acceptable volatility\u201d remains to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SPX, 10-Months, Daily Candles, with 50-day (top line), 100-day (middle line), 200-day (bottom line) Moving Averages and line at 6,520<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1021\" height=\"573\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240613 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97.png 1021w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97-700x393.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-97-768x431.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1021px) 100vw, 1021px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1021px; aspect-ratio: 1021\/573;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Surprises of the sort that we got this morning should no longer be surprising.\u00a0 On Friday, we mused that while some market participants were banking on the concept of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d, the strike price on that mythical put was murky at best.\u00a0 Well, it didn\u2019t take long to discover the answer.\u00a0 This morning, around 7AM EDT, we learned that the strike price was either 6,500 on ES futures and\/or 4.45% on 10-year yields.\u00a0 Whether we call it \u201cTACO\u201d or a put exercise, it\u2019s what investors wanted to hear.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":240617,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-240609","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-futures","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>OK, We Learned the Strike Price on the \u201cTrump Put\u201d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Surprises of the sort that we got this morning should no longer be surprising.\u00a0 On Friday, we mused that while some market participants were banking on...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240609\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"OK, We Learned the Strike Price on the \u201cTrump Put\u201d | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Surprises of the sort that we got this morning should no longer be surprising.\u00a0 On Friday, we mused that while some market participants were banking on the concept of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d, the strike price on that mythical put was murky at best.\u00a0 Well, it didn\u2019t take long to discover the answer.\u00a0 This morning, around 7AM EDT, we learned that the strike price was either 6,500 on ES futures and\/or 4.45% on 10-year yields.\u00a0 Whether we call it \u201cTACO\u201d or a put exercise, it\u2019s what investors wanted to hear.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/ok-we-learned-the-strike-price-on-the-trump-put\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-23T16:55:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-24T09:04:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/trump-put-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" 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