{"id":240517,"date":"2026-03-20T10:10:56","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T14:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=240517"},"modified":"2026-03-23T05:14:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T09:14:21","slug":"auto-draft-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/auto-draft-6\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil and interest rates calling the shots"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Briefing.com Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Oil prices had been higher, but they have reversed course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Treasury yields continue to perk up on inflation concerns and a pushing out of rate-cut expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Today is a quarterly expiration day for options and futures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These days, if you want to get a line on the equity futures trade, you can start with oil prices, and then you can look at Treasury yields. Those two items pretty much set the tone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are down 27 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 127 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 176 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What one might reasonably extrapolate from these indications is that oil prices are up and Treasury yields are higher. That isn&#8217;t precisely the case.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices had been higher amid reports that a Kuwait refinery had been hit by a drone attack and that President Trump is considering occupying Kharg Island. WTI crude futures skimmed $97.00\/bbl, and Brent crude futures hit $111.00\/bbl, but now they are at $95.24, down 0.9%, and $106.98, down 1.5%, respectively. The reversal helped the equity index futures pare larger losses, but it didn&#8217;t succeed in cutting the losses entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The other component\u2014Treasury yields\u2014hasn&#8217;t fallen into line. The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is the phantom menace, too, known as the weekend, when markets are mostly shuttered and anything can happen militarily. Accordingly, there isn&#8217;t much conviction among buyers\u2014not in a broad market sense anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FedEx (FDX)<\/strong>&nbsp;is up nicely following its better-than-expected earnings results, yet the weight of the uncertainty about the war with Iran is drowning out positive news elsewhere on this quarterly options and futures expiration day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latter will result in heavy volume and perhaps some added volatility, but for now, the direction of travel for oil prices and Treasury yields will be calling the shots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 20, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">Oil and interest rates calling the shots<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Briefing.com Summary:<\/p>\n<p>*Oil prices had been higher, but they have reversed course.<\/p>\n<p>*Treasury yields continue to perk up on inflation concerns and a pushing out of rate-cut expectations.<\/p>\n<p>*Today is a quarterly expiration day for options and futures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":225598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-240517","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oil and interest rates calling the shots | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Briefing.com Summary:*Oil prices had been higher, but they have reversed course.*Treasury yields continue to perk up on inflation concerns and a pushing...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240517\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil and interest rates calling the shots | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Briefing.com Summary:*Oil prices had been higher, but they have reversed course.*Treasury yields continue to perk up on inflation concerns and a pushing out of rate-cut expectations.*Today is a quarterly expiration day for options and futures.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/auto-draft-6\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-20T14:10:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-23T09:14:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/interest-rates-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. O\u2019Hare\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Patrick J. O\u2019Hare\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/auto-draft-6\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/auto-draft-6\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Patrick J. 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