{"id":240458,"date":"2026-03-19T13:10:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T17:10:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=240458"},"modified":"2026-03-19T18:25:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T22:25:54","slug":"gop-senate-lead-of-73-to-start-2026-is-down-to-just-54-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/gop-senate-lead-of-73-to-start-2026-is-down-to-just-54-today\/","title":{"rendered":"GOP Senate Lead of 73% to Start 2026 Is Down to Just 54% Today: March 19, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The GOP\u2019s chances of maintaining a majority in the Senate after the upcoming midterm elections have fallen from 73% at the start of the year to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=745923952%7C20270104%7C1%7C%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">54%<\/a> today as consumer sentiment remains in the tombs due to elevated inflation, restrictive interest rates, reduced job openings, the Iran war and a perception that tariffs are raising price pressures. President Trump\u2019s approval ratings have suffered as a result, and that has also weighed on the Republican Party\u2019s prospects in this year\u2019s elections. However, it is typical to see the side in power lose seats in the congressional contests two years after its nominee for head of state wins at the ballots. Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, the Democrats continue to maintain a sizeable advantage of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=733131966%7C20270104%7C1%7C2026&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">82%<\/a>, up from 75% at the start of the 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"552\" height=\"396\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-78.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240460 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-78.png 552w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-78-300x215.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 552px; aspect-ratio: 552\/396;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"533\" height=\"397\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-79.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240461 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-79.png 533w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-79-300x223.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 533px) 100vw, 533px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 533px; aspect-ratio: 533\/397;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hong-kong-cpi-expected-to-come-in-around-1-3\"><strong>Hong Kong CPI Expected to Come In Around 1.3%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tomorrow\u2019s Hong Kong Consumer Price Index is expected to arrive around 1.3%, with participants pricing a number above 1% at 93% while considering a figure that fails to exceed 1.5% with an <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=725452893%7C20260320%7C1.5%7CFebruary%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">82%<\/a> degree of confidence. But there could be an opportunity here for the \u201cYeses\u201d at the higher threshold, as the monthly Reuters poll of 7 forecasters carries a median estimate of 1.6% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum values of 1.4% and 1.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"164\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-80-1100x164.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240462 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-80-1100x164.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-80-700x105.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-80-300x45.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-80-768x115.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-80.png 1513w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/164;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"690\" height=\"652\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-81.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240463 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-81.png 690w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-81-300x283.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 690px; aspect-ratio: 690\/652;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 19, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The GOP\u2019s chances of maintaining a majority in the Senate after the upcoming midterm elections have fallen from 76% at the start of the year to 54% today as consumer sentiment remains in the tombs due to elevated inflation, restrictive interest rates, reduced job openings, the Iran war and a perception that tariffs are raising price pressures. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":234346,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-240458","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GOP Senate Lead of 73% to Start 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