{"id":240399,"date":"2026-03-18T12:42:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T16:42:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=240399"},"modified":"2026-03-18T15:04:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T19:04:47","slug":"crude-reality-markets-caught-between-war-and-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/crude-reality-markets-caught-between-war-and-the-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Reality: Markets Caught Between War and the Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices are swinging as geopolitical tensions rise, leaving markets caught between conflict-driven shocks and an increasingly cautious Federal Reserve. In this IBKR Midweek episode, we break down what\u2019s driving crude\u2019s volatility, shifting rate expectations and what investors should watch next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Crude Reality: Markets Caught Between War and the Fed\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=rxprt-1a7608b-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-364\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 364<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi everyone, this is Jeff Praissman for Interactive Brokers, and\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0my pleasure to welcome back to the IBKR Podcast Studio, Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey Scott, how are\u00a0you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0great. I just wish there\u00a0was\u00a0a little bit more\u00a0snow out\u00a0here in\u00a0Colorado\u00a0where I am right now, but it is what it is.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, I guess if you\u00a0didn\u2019t\u00a0leave Chicago,\u00a0you\u2019d\u00a0have that snow, right?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exactly right.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anyway, you know, obviously as always, love having you come in here on Wednesday mornings for a sort of five-minute market recap from the week before and kind of looking forward. I want to jump right into it. Scott,\u00a0let\u2019s\u00a0talk about what\u00a0everyone\u2019s\u00a0thinking about\u2014crude oil prices, right? One day\u00a0they\u2019re\u00a0spiking up, the next day\u00a0they\u2019re\u00a0cooling off. Is this 90 to 105 the new range for a while, do you think? Or do you think\u00a0it\u2019ll\u00a0kind of get\u00a0back to the pre-conflict price of 60\u201370?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, sure. I think 60\u201370 is longer term where\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0going to be. What does\u00a0longer\u00a0term mean? I mean, it means when\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0a de-escalation or this whole conflict is over, because the bottom line is economics will still take over and there\u2019s still\u00a0way more\u00a0supply than there is demand. But\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0the question\u2014when is that going to happen?\u00a0So\u00a0for right now, sure, 90\u2013105 is this range, but that can change, as we know, in just a nanosecond.\u00a0So\u00a0I would suggest that if anyone is trading crude futures,\u00a0you\u2019ve\u00a0got to do it very diligently. Have some stops in there. But\u00a0yeah,\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0the range for now.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Right. And\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0right in the middle of the Federal Reserve March 17th\u201318th meeting. It kicked off yesterday and is going through today. And obviously, with this heightened uncertainty we just talked about\u2014from the Iran conflict and new global tariffs that seem to keep popping up and going away each day\u2014how might these external shocks influence the Fed\u2019s rate decision and their forward guidance?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0know about you, but\u00a0I\u2019d\u00a0love to be in the meeting room with Powell today. The market is now pricing in no cuts until\u00a0maybe even\u00a0the fourth quarter. The PPI print this morning certainly\u00a0didn\u2019t\u00a0help. That muddied the waters from an inflation standpoint, and that\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0even include what we may or may not see as a shock given the Iran escalation, the Iran conflict.\u00a0So yeah, there is definitely heightened uncertainty.\u00a0And\u00a0I think the script\u00a0is already written\u2014we\u2019ll\u00a0hear from Jerome Powell that inflation is sticky, and the tariffs and the conflict are putting things into question. The Fed is\u00a0staying\u00a0the course.\u00a0They\u2019re\u00a0still going to work on their dual mandate of keeping the jobs market in place, or unemployment in a certain range, and getting inflation back down to 2%.\u00a0So\u00a0I\u00a0wouldn\u2019t\u00a0expect much out of him, though the market, again, is really showing now that\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0no expectation of a cut until much later in the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, that leads me perfectly into my next question\u2014really just\u00a0the market reactions investors should\u00a0anticipate, especially in bond yields, the US dollar, and some of the riskier assets. It sounds like they\u2019re kind of pricing\u00a0in\u00a0a pause, at least for now.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Absolutely.\u00a0And I\u2019m actually surprised this morning that, given the PPI print, we didn\u2019t see yields push even higher than they are.\u00a0I\u00a0would\u2019ve\u00a0expected to see the 10-year\u00a0maybe back\u00a0at 4.3 or so, where we were just last week. And when you talk about risk assets, I think\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0in this environment right now where historically, some of those risk assets would be what people want\u2014gold and silver. That certainly reacted today. We are going to see higher rates as opposed to just\u00a0kind of that\u00a0safe haven trade, but again, that can change in a moment\u2019s notice.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0been a while\u2014or\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0been going on for a while, I should say\u2014the sort of \u201cgreat decoupling,\u201d right?\u00a0Where US markets are really outperforming global indices in general.\u00a0What structural advantages, like energy independence or AI leadership, are really driving this divergence for the US? And can this continue in the face of these rising geopolitical risks?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, you just hit it, right?\u00a0It\u2019s energy independence, which I\u2019m not sure other countries maybe don\u2019t have, but we definitely do.\u00a0AI leadership as well. I think this\u00a0can\u00a0continue. But\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0been talking about whether\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0an AI bubble\u2014whether\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0too much spending on capital expenditures on AI. So far,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0been okay, and the bubble talk is\u00a0kind of on\u00a0the back\u00a0burner for\u00a0right now.\u00a0So\u00a0once we get beyond this conflict\u2014hopefully much, much sooner rather than later\u2014let\u2019s\u00a0see if AI expenditures hold up. If we start getting next quarter guidance from some of the big companies\u2014Meta, Amazon\u2014that are still investing into AI, and if that continues, then yes, I believe we will remain at the top of the chain and this resilience will continue.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Great. And just\u00a0real\u00a0quick, any\u00a0final thoughts\u00a0for the week ahead?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have a monthly\u00a0expiration\u00a0on Friday.\u00a0There\u2019s\u00a0a lot of volume out there, a lot of\u00a0option\u00a0open\u00a0interest, and we know when we get to these triple witching or quad witching events\u2014whatever you want to call it, which we have this Friday\u2014we can see some added volatility.\u00a0So\u00a0I would expect volatility to remain. But again, right now\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0not the Fed\u2014it\u2019s\u00a0probably not\u00a0even\u00a0PPI\u00a0anymore.\u00a0It\u2019s\u00a0what\u2019s\u00a0going to happen later today, tomorrow, with the escalation that\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0seeing.\u00a0So\u00a0I think everybody\u00a0just needs to keep on their toes and keep things a little bit closer to the vest.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, thanks a lot for stopping by. For more from Scott, you can go to prospertrading.com or go onto our website, IBKR.com. Click on Education, look for podcasts, webinars, articles, and everything from Prosper Trading. And Scott, thanks a lot. Until next time,\u00a0looking forward\u00a0to talking with you.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-6\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you, Jeff.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices are swinging as geopolitical tensions rise, leaving markets caught between conflict-driven shocks and an increasingly cautious Federal Reserve. In this IBKR Midweek episode, we break down what\u2019s driving crude\u2019s volatility, shifting rate expectations and what investors should watch next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":240400,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[20606,2255,21296,11237,4006,446,10662,5172,671,14215,850,12835,21215,6014,10995,4231,4574,21297,11838,20952],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-240399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-ai-spending","tag-bond-yields","tag-crude-oil-volatility","tag-energy-markets","tag-fed-policy","tag-federal-reserve","tag-futures-trading","tag-geopolitical-risk","tag-global-markets","tag-inflation-outlook","tag-interest-rates","tag-investing-strategy","tag-iran-conflict","tag-macroeconomics","tag-market-volatility","tag-oil-prices","tag-options-trading","tag-ppi-data","tag-stock-market-outlook","tag-us-dollar-outlook","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crude Reality: Markets Caught Between War and the Fed<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240399\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crude Reality: Markets Caught Between War and the Fed | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Oil prices are swinging as geopolitical tensions rise, leaving markets caught between conflict-driven shocks and an increasingly cautious Federal Reserve. In this IBKR Midweek episode, we break down what\u2019s driving crude\u2019s volatility, shifting rate expectations and what investors should watch next.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/crude-reality-markets-caught-between-war-and-the-fed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-18T16:42:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-18T19:04:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/midweekpod20260318prosper_coverimage.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jeff Praissman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" 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