{"id":240312,"date":"2026-03-17T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=240312"},"modified":"2026-03-18T05:36:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T09:36:04","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-march-16-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-march-16-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of March 16, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>4Q25 GDP growth was revised down to 0.7% saar<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline\/core CPI rose 2.4%\/2.5% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline\/core PCE rose 3.1%\/2.8% y\/y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FOMC meeting<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Global markets have been volatile in 2026, but few assets have been on as wild a ride as oil. Just last week, WTI crude oil traded in a $43 dollar range, reaching as high as ~$119 per barrel in intra-day trading and as low as ~$76 as the conflict in the Middle East continued to develop. Prices steadily climbed late in the week after an IEA decision to release 400mn barrels of oil failed to temper supply concerns, ultimately closing just below $99. On average in March, oil prices are up over 30% m\/m and 25% from their average in March 2025. If higher prices are sustained, there could be meaningful implications for inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A simple regression on data back to the 80s suggests that every 10% y\/y increase in the average price of oil boosts energy inflation by 2.7% in the following month. This increases headline inflation directly by 17bps after considering energy\u2019s ~6.3% weight in the index. However, higher oil prices don\u2019t only impact the energy bucket \u2013 they indirectly feed through other components, such as core goods and transportation services. A regression on headline CPI shows that a 10% y\/y rise in oil prices more generally boosts headline inflation by 25bps in the following month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is all but guaranteed the FOMC will hold rates steady at this week\u2019s meeting. But with upside inflation risks stemming from fiscal stimulus, tariff pass-through and now the conflict in the Middle East, nearly 40bps of rate cuts for 2026 have been priced out of markets since the end of February. In our view, inflation should still fade later this year. But the Fed\u2019s updated summary of economic projections this week should provide perspective on how recent events have changed its view of the world, and the path forward for inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1017\" height=\"403\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-17-111737.png\" alt=\"annual change in WTI crude oil prices and headline inflation\" class=\"wp-image-240328 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-17-111737.png 1017w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-17-111737-700x277.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-17-111737-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-17-111737-768x304.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1017px) 100vw, 1017px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1017px; aspect-ratio: 1017\/403;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: BLS, FactSet, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management. March 2026 figure for WTI crude represents the y\/y %<br>change calculated using the month-to-date average crude oil price.<br>Thought of the week: Source: Bloomberg, BLS, FactSet, NYMEX, J.P.<br>Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 16, 2026 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., March 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of March 16, 2026 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights oil\u2019s wild price swings, with March prices up 30% month-over-month, raising inflation risks and limiting Fed rate cuts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":240328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-240312","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of March 16, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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