{"id":240249,"date":"2026-03-16T09:51:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T13:51:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=240249"},"modified":"2026-04-10T16:18:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T20:18:59","slug":"right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even when traders correctly predict a stock\u2019s direction after earnings, option trades can still lose money due to volatility shifts and pricing expectations. In this episode, Jeff Praissman sits down with Market Chameleons\u2019 Dmitry Pargamanik and Will McBride to explore how implied volatility, magnitude of moves, and historical data shape earnings strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=k4hcr-1a9659e-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-362\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 362<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi everyone. This is Jeff Praissman, Interactive Brokers Podcast.&nbsp;It&#8217;s&nbsp;my pleasure to welcome to the IBKR Podcast Studio Market Chameleon&#8217;s Will McBride and Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik. Hey guys, how are&nbsp;you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hey Jeff.&nbsp;Thanks&nbsp;for having us.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-mcbride\">Will McBride<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hey Jeff.&nbsp;Always&nbsp;a pleasure. Thanks so much for having us again.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My pleasure. And&nbsp;you guys&nbsp;just&nbsp;finished up&nbsp;a great&nbsp;webinar&nbsp;on analyzing historical data earnings&nbsp;datas&nbsp;using&nbsp;option&nbsp;strategies. And as we always do, we have&nbsp;you guys&nbsp;pop into the podcast studio right afterwards to sort of, I&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;wanna&nbsp;say a deeper dive, but I guess a different dive.&nbsp;And&nbsp;so&nbsp;I&nbsp;kind of wanted&nbsp;to jump right in. So, Dmitry and Will, why are&nbsp;earnings&nbsp;events so different from regular trading? What makes them&nbsp;such a big deal&nbsp;that we need to analyze them&nbsp;different&nbsp;than other setups?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-0\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah.&nbsp;So&nbsp;one of the things about earnings is that&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;a known scheduled catalyst event. What I mean by that is we have earnings typically four times a year, four quarters. The company usually releases the date of the earnings release ahead of time, so&nbsp;we&#8217;ll&nbsp;know the date and when&nbsp;they&#8217;re&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;release it.&nbsp;So&nbsp;because of that, we could strategize, organize, plan, and use risk management around those unique catalyst dates. And we know that there are certain behaviors around earnings that we&nbsp;observe&nbsp;differently than normal non-earnings&nbsp;states. So those have become&nbsp;very important&nbsp;catalyst dates for traders.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And something with earnings there, really anything really, right? But with these strategies, right, a trader could be completely right&nbsp;on&nbsp;direction, but they can still lose money with the trade. Could you give us an example of how that could happen?&nbsp;Because it sounds, to a lot of people, pretty counterintuitive.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-1\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And when we look at earnings, there are a couple&nbsp;things&nbsp;that options price into earnings. Besides direction,&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;the&nbsp;magnitude&nbsp;of the move. And you can be right in the direction, but if the&nbsp;magnitude&nbsp;of the move&nbsp;was&nbsp;overpriced, for example in a call, that call could still lose value. Or in a put, if the&nbsp;magnitude&nbsp;of the move was overpriced and there is a down move, for example after post earnings.&nbsp;Because that&nbsp;magnitude&nbsp;of the move was priced&nbsp;in&nbsp;and the options were overpriced, the options will reprice going forward, taking out that uncertainty now that the earnings are out.&nbsp;We&#8217;re&nbsp;released and&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;going back to normal volatility regime.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So really just kind of maybe phrase it another way. Even if the call or put becomes&nbsp;basically in&nbsp;the money after the move, if the premium was priced so much more, then they would still lose money on what they paid for that premium. Well, they paid the premium on the&nbsp;option&nbsp;even if the&nbsp;option&nbsp;does finish with some intrinsic value.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-2\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah,&nbsp;right.&nbsp;Or maybe not even depending on the call you are looking at. Or if&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;an out-of-the-money call, it may&nbsp;have not&nbsp;reached that point either. But it can still lose value because that risk premium is also&nbsp;removed&nbsp;post earnings.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Right. And&nbsp;so&nbsp;there&#8217;s really probably three main forces that are driving these earnings outcomes, right?&nbsp;It&#8217;s&nbsp;the actual price&nbsp;move, the implied volatility expansion, then the implied volatility crush afterwards.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-3\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Right.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;is there one of these that&nbsp;traders&nbsp;kind of most commonly&nbsp;underestimate, do you think?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-4\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think that a common factor that may not be fully analyzed is that implied volatility crush post earnings, or&nbsp;maybe even&nbsp;the implied volatility move prior to earnings depending on the strategy.&nbsp;Where you can end up with what we&#8217;re talking about, where the stock, for example, goes up after earnings, but you have this out-of-the-money call which implied volatility crush will still make it come down even though the direction, the delta, is the right way. The stock is moving in the right direction, but once you take that implied volatility out, it could lose value.&nbsp;You know that the stock moved in the same direction and that could happen in time spreads where people look at time spreads and maybe are looking at a time spread where they&#8217;re doing a spread based on implied volatility, like selling a higher implied volatility and buying a lower implied volatility. But you have to understand that there&#8217;s a different&nbsp;vega&nbsp;to them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And once it corrects and&nbsp;kind of gets&nbsp;back to normal,&nbsp;you&#8217;ll&nbsp;see the implied volatility&nbsp;move down&nbsp;perhaps even on both, and even one more than the other. But the&nbsp;vega&nbsp;of one&nbsp;option&nbsp;is much higher than the&nbsp;vega&nbsp;of the other.&nbsp;So&nbsp;they might be surprised to see, well why did this time spread lose value when the implied volatility moved down, both moved down?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And another item that&#8217;s really critical too is entry. Entry timing, right?&nbsp;So&nbsp;someone entering two weeks before earnings versus the day before,&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;a completely different risk profile. Could you break down how&nbsp;vega&nbsp;exposure and then like&nbsp;the of&nbsp;decay change across these different entry windows?&nbsp;And which timing do you think produces&nbsp;maybe the&nbsp;most favorable historical results?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-5\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. So that brings up a good question because when we look at strategies around earnings, you could use strategies by using different combinations of options. You could do a&nbsp;straddle,&nbsp;you could do a vertical spread, a butterfly.&nbsp;But picking entry points and exit points is a strategy in itself where you can look at a strategy where you start maybe two weeks prior to earnings and try to strategize around the run up to the earnings and exit it right before earnings, which is a strategy based on anticipated move of the stock heading into earnings and the high volatility heading into earnings.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And that&nbsp;itself, or&nbsp;even post earnings where you wait for the earnings to be released, then the next day the earnings are&nbsp;out,&nbsp;the options&nbsp;open up. You could enter&nbsp;in&nbsp;the strategy at that point and end of day the same day.&nbsp;So that itself is a strategy based on some kind of anticipation or your outlook that might be different than where the options are priced now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And you&nbsp;could you&nbsp;walk me through, like&nbsp;let&#8217;s&nbsp;just say&nbsp;I&#8217;m&nbsp;sitting down to research a trade tonight, right And&nbsp;hypothetically Apple&nbsp;has earnings coming up.&nbsp;What&#8217;s&nbsp;my actual workflow here?&nbsp;Like where&nbsp;do I even start? What am I looking for?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-6\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;when&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;looking from a historical standpoint, your starting point is, well, you&nbsp;picked&nbsp;the stock, which was good. And you would want to&nbsp;come up with&nbsp;a&nbsp;timeframe. But if&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;looking at the option markets now, what&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;trying to compare is how they are priced now.&nbsp;You need reference points to&nbsp;kind of give&nbsp;you a historical perspective. If I compare them now to history, are they on the high end or low end of the historical range? How did the market dynamics and the option impact historically look with dispersion of returns and your max losses versus your max gains, your average returns, the standard deviations of those returns?&nbsp;Those will start helping you shape a potential strategy based on your unique outlook. But the common factors that&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;looking at are that&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;trying to analyze the current markets, right?&nbsp;That&#8217;s&nbsp;where&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;looking at these markets and have a certain outlook. Do the options right now, where they&#8217;re priced, where the premiums are, where the implied volatilities are, offer a favorable or potential risk-return ratio based on my outlook and based on benchmarks that I could look at historically to help me kind of put that into context?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-7\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;let&#8217;s&nbsp;talk about outliers then. How should traders think about a strategy that shows a great average return but really had one or two extreme quarters driving those results versus consistency? What questions should they be asking besides whether this tail risk is acceptable?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-7\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. And&nbsp;that&#8217;s&nbsp;a good question. When&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;looking at analysis and&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;looking at historical data,&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;important to know that markets do change their&nbsp;dynamic. We could be in a different type of environment today than history suggested.&nbsp;So&nbsp;if you are in that different environment, you have to now evaluate that environment and decide if it needs more of a premium or less of a premium than history. But taking that away, when we analyze numbers, sometimes you could get&nbsp;a very good&nbsp;average return, right? But&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;averaging these numbers.&nbsp;If you look at the data and say, well wait a minute, out&nbsp;of the last 12 quarters&nbsp;there&#8217;s&nbsp;this huge outlier where the stock was up 40%.&nbsp;It was this special situation where the company announced that they won some kind of lawsuit or they did something so unexpected that you don&#8217;t anticipate that going forward.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So how do you remove that data point from your analysis? If you do, you have 12 observations and you remove that. What does the new analysis tell you?&nbsp;You could go from, hey, buying a call&nbsp;returned&nbsp;an average 25%. But if I remove this one data point where a call was up 5000%,&nbsp;all of&nbsp;a&nbsp;sudden&nbsp;I&#8217;m&nbsp;negative.&nbsp;So&nbsp;then it makes you think about your risk and reward differently when&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;trying to apply that strategy.&nbsp;But you&nbsp;can&#8217;t&nbsp;discount it either because&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;like, okay, but I do have this tail risk. If I include the tail risk, do I cap it?&nbsp;Maybe my&nbsp;tail risk is an 85,000% return. But if I wanted to run a model and try to create a risk-reward analysis, I can&nbsp;maybe cap&nbsp;it at a similar tail risk, say 500%.&nbsp;What if I rerun the numbers? How does that look?&nbsp;So&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;important to look deeper into the data. You get this high number to look&nbsp;at for&nbsp;your valuation, but you look deeper into the data to see, well, are there any outliers? What happened? And how do I account for those going forward?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-8\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. And it&nbsp;kind of leads&nbsp;me to my next question.&nbsp;We&#8217;re&nbsp;talking about historical data, right?&nbsp;This is going to be a little tricky because even without these outliers, even if everything&#8217;s pretty steady, just because it worked in the past doesn&#8217;t actually mean it&#8217;ll work tomorrow.&nbsp;So&nbsp;along those same lines, how does a trader use that old data without really falling into that trap of thinking this is just going to be a&nbsp;layup&nbsp;and&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;going to repeat itself no matter what?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-8\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. Well, the data itself helps&nbsp;kind of put&nbsp;things into&nbsp;context&nbsp;and it helps us assess whether the markets right now are in this very euphoric stage or whether they are within the historical range.&nbsp;If I use them, where are we on that scale? Are we&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;very low&nbsp;end of the historical range? Are we&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;very high&nbsp;end of the historical range? Or are we so far away that we might have to see a stock move that we&nbsp;haven&#8217;t&nbsp;seen historically?&nbsp;Where the risk here is much higher than history suggests.&nbsp;Maybe it&#8217;s&nbsp;justified, but we would have to justify that. We would have to say, well, what is different now than before that can justify such a move?&nbsp;Like you said, sometimes when&nbsp;you&#8217;re&nbsp;seeing the markets moving up with lots of players, you&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;want to miss out.&nbsp;You think you might be missing out.&nbsp;But you&nbsp;have to&nbsp;put it into perspective and say, well, how far did the markets get? Were they driven to the point where I have some serious risk here if it&nbsp;doesn&#8217;t&nbsp;go my way?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It puts things more into context where now it helps you understand your risk. You might still want to take that risk, but at least you understand it from a historical perspective.&nbsp;You might say, well hey, these premiums that everybody is paying or pushing up are three times more than the highest that&nbsp;we&#8217;ve&nbsp;ever seen. We&nbsp;haven&#8217;t&nbsp;seen these types of situations before. I have to really understand&nbsp;that&nbsp;going forward. Is it justified?&nbsp;You&#8217;d&nbsp;have to figure that part out as well.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-9\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah.&nbsp;Because trading in general can get pretty emotional, especially earnings seasons, right?&nbsp;Like you mentioned, fear of missing out or FOMO and chasing moves.&nbsp;It seems like historical data can really at least help the trader stay calm and potentially not do something irrational.&nbsp;Can&#8217;t&nbsp;guarantee that though, right?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-9\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-10\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;Dmitry, Will, are there any&nbsp;final thoughts&nbsp;you&#8217;d&nbsp;like to leave the listeners with?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-10\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. I think that just on that note, helping evaluate that risk assessment may allow you to&nbsp;strategize&nbsp;a different way&nbsp;where you might want to hedge off some of the risk.&nbsp;You could always hedge a call by doing a call spread or a time spread so you can hedge off risk when you feel like you have this extra risk but want to do it in&nbsp;a different way.&nbsp;But my&nbsp;final thoughts&nbsp;are that earnings themselves present a different type of opportunity or trading regime. Those who do trade it have a different type of data set to analyze where you have this catalyst event.&nbsp;You now have the&nbsp;magnitude&nbsp;of the move, the implied volatility, and the implied volatility after the move.&nbsp;Those are important dynamics and factors that play into strategies, and you have to take all of them into consideration.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-11\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Will and Dmitry, this has been great. For our listeners, you can catch more from Will and Dmitri at Market Chameleon\u2019s YouTube show every morning. What is it, nine o&#8217;clock, I believe?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-mcbride-0\">Will McBride<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-12\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yep. Or you can go&nbsp;on&nbsp;their website, marketchameleon.com.&nbsp;Also&nbsp;our webinars\u2014we are lucky enough to host&nbsp;a webinar&nbsp;with them every second Tuesday of every month.&nbsp;Guys, until next month, this has been great.&nbsp;Thanks&nbsp;again.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dmitry-nbsp-pargamanik-11\">Dmitry&nbsp;Pargamanik<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks, Jeff.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Even when traders correctly predict a stock\u2019s direction after earnings, option trades can still lose money due to volatility shifts and pricing expectations. In this episode, Jeff Praissman sits down with Market Chameleons\u2019 Dmitry Pargamanik and Will McBride to explore how implied volatility, magnitude of moves, and historical data shape earnings strategies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":240250,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[21275,21278,21277,21276,21280,21281,21279,17709,16071,21273,4574,19229,21274,21282,21283],"contributors-categories":[13576,13788],"class_list":["post-240249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-earnings-options-analysis","tag-earnings-options-strategies","tag-earnings-season-trading","tag-earnings-trading-strategies","tag-implied-volatility-crush","tag-implied-volatility-earnings","tag-jeff-praissman-podcast","tag-market-chameleon","tag-options-education","tag-options-pricing-dynamics","tag-options-trading","tag-options-volatility","tag-stock-earnings-volatility","tag-trading-earnings-announcements","tag-trading-options-around-earnings","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-market-chameleon"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240249\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Even when traders correctly predict a stock\u2019s direction after earnings, option trades can still lose money due to volatility shifts and pricing expectations. In this episode, Jeff Praissman sits down with Market Chameleons\u2019 Dmitry Pargamanik and Will McBride to explore how implied volatility, magnitude of moves, and historical data shape earnings strategies.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-16T13:51:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-10T20:18:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jeff Praissman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jeff Praissman\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jeff Praissman\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f47d7b3d455b7dd41e4b36f95ea08ba4\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-03-16T13:51:05+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-04-10T20:18:59+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 2871,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"earnings options analysis\",\n\t                \"earnings options strategies\",\n\t                \"earnings season trading\",\n\t                \"earnings trading strategies\",\n\t                \"implied volatility crush\",\n\t                \"implied volatility earnings\",\n\t                \"Jeff Praissman podcast\",\n\t                \"Market Chameleon\",\n\t                \"options education\",\n\t                \"options pricing dynamics\",\n\t                \"options trading\",\n\t                \"Options Volatility\",\n\t                \"stock earnings volatility\",\n\t                \"trading earnings announcements\",\n\t                \"trading options around earnings\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Podcasts\",\n\t                \"Podcasts\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-03-16T13:51:05+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-04-10T20:18:59+00:00\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ReadAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/podcasts\\\/ibkr-podcasts\\\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\\\/#primaryimage\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg\",\n\t            \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg\",\n\t            \"width\": 1000,\n\t            \"height\": 563\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebSite\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"SearchAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"EntryPoint\",\n\t                        \"urlTemplate\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"\n\t                    },\n\t                    \"query-input\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"PropertyValueSpecification\",\n\t                        \"valueRequired\": true,\n\t                        \"valueName\": \"search_term_string\"\n\t                    }\n\t                }\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"alternateName\": \"IBKR\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"logo\": {\n\t                \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t                \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\n\t                \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"width\": 669,\n\t                \"height\": 669,\n\t                \"caption\": \"Interactive Brokers\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"publishingPrinciples\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/about-ibkr-campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"ethicsPolicy\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/cyber-security-notice\\\/\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Person\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f47d7b3d455b7dd41e4b36f95ea08ba4\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Jeff Praissman\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Jeff Praissman is the Sr. Trading Education Specialist at Interactive Brokers (IBKR). Jeff began his career on the floor of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange trading equity options and moved on to a risk management role for both U.S and Brazilian portfolios. He continued his career as a Sr. Financial Analyst and holds an MBA in Finance from Temple University. Jeff writes option related articles, presents webinars, and podcasts and helps educate investors and clients via IBKR\u2019s Traders\u2019 Academy within the IBKR Campus.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jeff-praissman\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240249\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap | IBKR Campus US","og_description":"Even when traders correctly predict a stock\u2019s direction after earnings, option trades can still lose money due to volatility shifts and pricing expectations. In this episode, Jeff Praissman sits down with Market Chameleons\u2019 Dmitry Pargamanik and Will McBride to explore how implied volatility, magnitude of moves, and historical data shape earnings strategies.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus US","article_published_time":"2026-03-16T13:51:05+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-04-10T20:18:59+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":563,"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Jeff Praissman","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jeff Praissman","Est. reading time":"11 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/"},"author":{"name":"Jeff Praissman","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/f47d7b3d455b7dd41e4b36f95ea08ba4"},"headline":"Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap","datePublished":"2026-03-16T13:51:05+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-10T20:18:59+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/"},"wordCount":2871,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg","keywords":["earnings options analysis","earnings options strategies","earnings season trading","earnings trading strategies","implied volatility crush","implied volatility earnings","Jeff Praissman podcast","Market Chameleon","options education","options pricing dynamics","options trading","Options Volatility","stock earnings volatility","trading earnings announcements","trading options around earnings"],"articleSection":["IBKR Podcasts","Podcasts"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/","name":"Right Direction, Wrong Trade: The Earnings Trap | IBKR Campus US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg","datePublished":"2026-03-16T13:51:05+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-10T20:18:59+00:00","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/right-direction-wrong-trade-the-earnings-trap\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg","width":1000,"height":563},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus US","description":"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization","name":"Interactive Brokers","alternateName":"IBKR","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","width":669,"height":669,"caption":"Interactive Brokers"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/about-ibkr-campus\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/cyber-security-notice\/"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/f47d7b3d455b7dd41e4b36f95ea08ba4","name":"Jeff Praissman","description":"Jeff Praissman is the Sr. Trading Education Specialist at Interactive Brokers (IBKR). Jeff began his career on the floor of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange trading equity options and moved on to a risk management role for both U.S and Brazilian portfolios. He continued his career as a Sr. Financial Analyst and holds an MBA in Finance from Temple University. Jeff writes option related articles, presents webinars, and podcasts and helps educate investors and clients via IBKR\u2019s Traders\u2019 Academy within the IBKR Campus.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jeff-praissman\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/pod20260310mktcham_coverimage.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/914"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=240249"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240249\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/240250"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=240249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=240249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=240249"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=240249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}