{"id":240059,"date":"2026-03-10T12:13:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:13:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=240059"},"modified":"2026-04-21T15:57:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T19:57:59","slug":"crude-awakening-oil-and-the-iran-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/crude-awakening-oil-and-the-iran-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Awakening: Oil and the Iran Conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Oil prices have surged amid escalating conflict with Iran, raising concerns about supply disruptions through the critical Strait of Hormuz and the broader impact on global markets. We break down what the latest geopolitical developments could mean for oil prices, inflation and the balance between fear and FOMO driving investor behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Crude Awakening: Oil and the Iran Conflict\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=s55wf-1a68e39-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-360\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 360<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to this week&#8217;s podcast. Today we examine the investment implications arising from the war in Iran. Steve, I&#8217;m sure you&#8217;ve been inundated with questions from the media seven days a week since the assault on\u00a0Iran started, but I wanted to put some time between the start so that we could observe the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the first two weeks, markets have swung violently, and maybe that&#8217;s an understatement in response to events that, rather than heading straight down, which you wouldn&#8217;t be blamed for expecting there&#8217;s much to talk about. Maybe we can start with some balance. Can you define perhaps the&nbsp;best case&nbsp;and the&nbsp;worst-case&nbsp;scenarios?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah the scenarios\u00a0that historically, whenever people asked,\u201cWhat are some of the big black swans that are out there?,\u201d\u00a0along with like solar flare, nuclear accident, things of that nature, closure of the Straits of Hormuzwas the most likely black swan event that that was in the market\u2019s psyche. \u00a0It&#8217;s been there\u00a0since the seventies. We got one,\u00a0and quite frankly, the market reaction, I&#8217;m gonna say was rather tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>But is that maybe Steve, is that maybe a function of the fact that it all happened in a day? With the price of oil, the impact on the price of oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-0\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Not really. You did see the price of oil build, from\u00a0$70 to\u00a0$80 to\u00a0$90, and then we have\u00a0yesterday\u00a0&#8212;\u00a0we&#8217;re taping this Tuesday\u00a0\u2013\u00a0yesterday\u00a0we had that overnight spurt\u00a0up to\u00a0$115 and then back down to\u00a0$85, which is, you put it to me in a\u00a0Teams message was we managed to have a bull market\u00a0and\u00a0a bear market in one day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The numbers that had always been thrown around were in the\u00a0$150 to\u00a0$200 range. And we didn&#8217;t get that. \u00a0In terms of market impacts, yes, there were some huge market impacts in Asia but those were in markets that had been overheating to some extent. The\u00a0KOSPI\u00a0which was up,\u00a0I think,\u00a020% year-to-date gave back half, gave back a good, maybe it was more, I don&#8217;t have the number in front of me. It might have actually been more,\u00a0like almost 40%, it had this huge parabolic silver-like rise, it gave back a big portion of it as parabolic moves often do. That meandered around. You had the Nikkei moving\u00a05%, 6% a day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But again, Nikkei&nbsp;had been outperforming. The US market yesterday at its worst was down like&nbsp;2%, 2.2%&nbsp;year-to-date. That is not even,&nbsp;that&#8217;s not even a blip,&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, that&#8217;s a very important point, whether you said that year-to-date as opposed to just on the day, the intraday movement was minimal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-1\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the things that I pointed out on Friday, I believe,\u00a0if not,the days are all blurring together,\u00a0was that each of the days, except for Friday, where I think people were a little nervous about going home long over the weekend, every single day, so\u00a0five out of the six trading days we&#8217;ve had through yesterday, we had closes that were significantly higher than the intraday lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So that&nbsp;tells&nbsp;me that there was always an underlying bid for stocks. There was always a big undercurrent of dip buying. There was, and more importantly, there was always a big undercurrent of&nbsp;FOMO. As soon as the bounce seemed to hold,&nbsp;as soon as it was a&nbsp;support level that held,&nbsp;the buyers came charging in, not necessarily to crazy levels, but the buyers did not want to miss that bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nobody wants to miss that bottom. And I know that the F&nbsp;in&nbsp;FOMO stands for fear.&nbsp;\u201cFear&nbsp;Of&nbsp;Missing&nbsp;Out.\u201d&nbsp;FOMO is really greed,&nbsp;and markets are continually wrestling to find the equilibrium between fear and greed. And it told me that through this whole process, while there was still more fear than we&#8217;d had for some time, greed is still probably in control, not fear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To that point, Steve, I think a lot of people like yourselves last week said,\u00a0\u201cYes, oil prices are building, but we&#8217;re not near\u00a0$100,\u201d\u00a0and then we did that all in one day.\u00a0Perhaps you&#8217;ve really just outlined kind of the\u00a0best-case\u00a0scenario.\u00a0What&#8217;s maybe the worst case?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-2\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The\u00a0best-case\u00a0scenario emerged yesterday afternoon when the markets rallied because the\u00a0President basically implied that the hostilities are done. Then of course today we learn\u00a0from Defense Secretary Hegseth that, oh wait, we&#8217;re gonna be stepping up our bombing campaign today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So,&nbsp;the two are somewhat incompatible, but it tells you that&#8217;s what the markets want to hear. The markets want to hear that this will be over and done with quickly. That the oil will be transiting through the Straits of Hormuz&nbsp;within days and everything&nbsp;will go&nbsp;back to normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\u00a0flip side of that scenario is,\u00a0I think there&#8217;s been, since this whole thing started,\u00a0one ship making it through the Straits of Hormuz.\u00a0There&#8217;s been the talk of backstopping, the insurance\u00a0\u2013 and by the way, without insurance the ships aren&#8217;t moving. Backstopping the insurance, it&#8217;s not clear that&#8217;s gone into effect yet, or how that&#8217;s going to work,\u00a0or the idea of\u00a0naval escorts through the\u00a0Straits. It\u2019s not clear\u00a0how\u00a0that&#8217;s gonna work.\u00a0You know, let me ask you a question here, which I don&#8217;t have the answer to:\u00a0Is the US going to backstop the insurance for and escort tankers headed for China in this situation?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One would think not, and I&#8217;m not sure that Congress would like that, would they?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-3\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, and there&#8217;s a lot of unanswered questions here and also there&#8217;s also the very strong possibility that Iran\u00a0is capable of very asymmetric types of disruption.\u00a0It\u00a0doesn&#8217;t take much more than a couple of drones or a small speedboat to truly send a message that says it&#8217;s not safe to go through the\u00a0Straits. And again, it&#8217;s not collectively.\u00a0\u00a0They can&#8217;t collectively, if all the tankers started going, they&#8217;re not gonna sink them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But if those tankers can&#8217;t get insurance to go&nbsp;through, they&#8217;re not gonna go through. &nbsp;Or the insurance is gonna be so extraordinarily expensive that it&#8217;s going to feed into the price of crude. So,&nbsp;the idea that this is just gonna be neatly wrapped up is I think a bit optimistic, but that&#8217;s the scenario that the market has been going on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s&nbsp;basically been that we&#8217;re going to be able to tie a bow on this thing&nbsp;very quickly. &nbsp;I think from a conventional military point of view, probably that&#8217;s true. I&#8217;m certainly&nbsp;I&#8217;m not gonna put on, I&#8217;m not gonna pretend to be a military analyst. I don&#8217;t know. So let me just state for the record that&#8217;s probably fair. The problem is what happens if, for better or worse, Iran has shown that they&#8217;re good at drones&nbsp;and they&#8217;re good at terrorism. And you&#8217;ve basically hardened the theocracy at this point. And the idea that we, that let&#8217;s say by the end of the week, we&#8217;ve heard the last of this very hard to swallow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I would agree with that. I think the issue is the regime change, isn&#8217;t it? Which is what really, that&#8217;s what this is about from Trump&#8217;s perspective, isn&#8217;t it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-4\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Is it? \u00a0The problem is it&#8217;s been one of several stated objectives and I don&#8217;t know. And the\u00a0US\u00a0has\u2026\u00a0I hope that&#8217;s actually not the case,\u00a0because as much as I detest the regime\u00a0&#8212; and I think most Americans feel that way based on their history\u00a0&#8212; the other inconvenient part of history is\u00a0that\u00a0US attempts to institute regime change in that part of the world do not go well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We got rid of Hussein, Saddam Hussein, and then it took\u2026&nbsp;the US was mired in Iraq for years. &nbsp;We&nbsp;got rid of&nbsp;Qaddafi,&nbsp;and&nbsp;Libya is essentially anarchy. We got rid of the Taliban and got mired in Afghanistan for many years. I&#8217;m not saying that this is the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don&#8217;t, I don&#8217;t think that anybody in the US has the stomach for this, but I\u00a0think the idea of basically saying we&#8217;re gonna go in there and change the regime is very difficult. Again, because we&#8217;re dealing with a theocracy and you&#8217;re not, this is not like,\u00a0you know, picking Democrats versus Republicans,\u00a0or Tories versus\u00a0Labour. This is picking sides in a religious conflict, and that&#8217;s not the same thing as pulling a lever\u00a0for one group or another.\u00a0\u00a0Again, I don&#8217;t want to go too far down these rabbit holes, but I think the idea is that the market has decided, this is very neat, that\u00a0there&#8217;s a neat outcome at the end of this.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I&#8217;m just saying that while there&#8217;s not a catastrophic outcome at the end of this, I think the market is a little too sanguine&nbsp;in thinking how neatly this can be solved. Sure, this can be solved neatly if we just said,&nbsp;\u201cYou know what, we&#8217;re done.&nbsp;We&#8217;re out. We did what we&#8217;re gonna do and walk away.\u201d&nbsp;But even then, there&#8217;s still ramifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah,\u00a0I think militaristic domination, it is probably the best case for the investor. And the worst case is we&#8217;re just kicking the can down the road for\u00a0problems later, but it could be many years later. Steve, bring it home for us in terms of the impact\u00a0on the US economy. We\u00a0did see that massive jump in oil prices over the weekend and into Monday morning hot on the heels of a terrible employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Could you add some color around where the rear-view data intersects with the prospect of a resultant pain at the pump situation for the US consumer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-5\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Again, best case\u00a0is\u00a0that number was an outlier,\u00a0and we could say that even as bad as that number was, we&#8217;re talking about, call\u00a0it\u00a0a difference of 200,000 jobs in a labor force of 170 million.\u00a0We\u00a0focus on these numbers a lot, but\u00a0essentially,\u00a0they&#8217;re rounding errors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it&#8217;s the data we have,\u00a0and change happens at the margin. So,\u00a0we do need to pay close attention to these numbers.\u00a0The\u00a0best-case\u00a0scenario from this is that, you know what,\u00a0there&#8217;s blips, there&#8217;s numbers, we&#8217;ll see how it annualizes out, this too shall pass, potentially. At the worst case,\u00a0it&#8217;s telling us there&#8217;s problems in the labor market. At the same time, we\u2019ve\u00a0got the very inconvenient problem of inflation being driven by energy prices. Now,\u00a0again I think people in many ways\u00a0think\u00a0it&#8217;s natural to think back\u00a0to, oh no, this happened in the\u00a0\u201870s\u00a0and we got this huge oil spike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As an economy, we&#8217;re less dependent upon oil as an input. It&#8217;s just it&#8217;s just not as important. But we&#8217;re building out data centers like crazy, which do require energy. As a nation, we drive big cars and in many cases trucks. And this will hurt. I saw a statistic today, I believe it was from Bloomberg Economics,&nbsp;that $80 oil essentially negates the tax refund benefits promised by the&nbsp;\u201cOne&nbsp;BigBeautiful&nbsp;Bill.\u201d&nbsp;And so,&nbsp;if you&#8217;re banking on that stimulus,&nbsp;higher oil prices act as a tax. And the question is how high?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the other issue you have with prices at the pump is there&#8217;s a ratchet effect. This has always been the case.  If\u00a0you&#8217;re running a gas station, if you&#8217;re running the\u00a0Mobil\u00a0station down the street or whatever,\u00a0you are going to raise your prices as soon as you discover that it&#8217;s going to cost you.\u00a0If\u00a0it cost you\u00a0X\u00a0to fill your tanks last week and it&#8217;s gonna cost you\u00a0X\u00a0plus 10% to fill your tanks this week,you are not waiting. You&#8217;re raising your\u00a0price by\u00a010%.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If on the other hand, the price comes down,\u00a0you&#8217;ve\u00a0filled\u00a0your tanks at\u00a0X\u00a0plus 10%, you&#8217;re going to charge\u00a0X\u00a0plus 10%. And\u00a0presumably, let&#8217;s say,\u00a0that\u00a0goes back down,\u00a0you&#8217;re going to move your prices down slowly because at a minimum you have to make a profit on the gasoline that you have in inventory. At a worse case, you&#8217;re realizing,\u00a0\u201cYou know what? Nobody else is racing\u00a0tocut their prices, why should I?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So,&nbsp;they move up very quickly,&nbsp;but&nbsp;they come down much more slowly. That&#8217;s definitely an issue as well. So,&nbsp;you&#8217;re going to have this problem. &nbsp;Also, and I&#8217;ve published this before, a chart with University of Michigan&nbsp;1-year inflation expectations versus the price of gasoline, and they&#8217;ve historically tracked very well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The only time they haven&#8217;t actually was basically middle of last year,\u00a0where because of the tariff fears,\u00a0inflationary expectations jumped dramatically while the price of gasoline stayed relatively steady. They\u00a0have\u00a0re-converged in recent months. But now you have to wonder,\u00a0\u201cWhat if they persist at higher prices, does that feed into inflation expectations?\u201d\u00a0So,\u00a0at the worst, you&#8217;re talking aboutstagnation,\u00a0maybe\u00a0turning into stagflation. \u00a0That&#8217;s a modest case, but it can get ugly in and of itself. I think the base case here is\u00a0some\u00a0very\u00a0modest,\u00a0you&#8217;ll see the term stagflation. I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s really\u00a0it. \u00a0If prices go up a little and the economy stagnates a little, is that stagflation? Yeah, I guess so, but that&#8217;s not, that&#8217;s not really my base case.\u00a0We&#8217;re not talking here about\u2026\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let me also put something in perspective.&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes, we went up from 4.3% to 4.4% on the unemployment rate. And yes, that occurred as the labor force participation rate sank, which actually means the denominator in the unemployment rate was sinking at the same time. So that&#8217;s not a very good sign. But historically, 4.4% is fabulous!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-6\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-6\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So that&#8217;s why I don&#8217;t wanna\u2026\u00a0There&#8217;s definitely currents, but let&#8217;s not overstate this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think we&#8217;re still in a generally healthy economy.&nbsp;The&nbsp;market&#8217;s still only pricing in a rate cut, I&nbsp;think as early as September. About a month ago,&nbsp;it was&nbsp;June.&nbsp;We&#8217;re still pricing in, maybe&nbsp;a&nbsp;50% chance of a second rate cut, whereas we&#8217;ve been pricing in two rate cuts and a 50% chance of a third.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Again, 25-basis points here&nbsp;and there is not\u2026 &nbsp;If we&#8217;re not getting rate cuts\u2018cause the economy is solid, that&#8217;s fine,&nbsp;root for that &#8217;cause that&#8217;s good for company earnings. That&#8217;s good for all the things that make the economy go.&nbsp;If we&#8217;re not getting rate cuts because the Fed is stuck in a bind amidst the slowing labor market and rising prices that&#8217;s a problem.&nbsp;&nbsp;But we&#8217;re not there yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-7\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Dr. Sosnick, chief\u00a0market psychiatrist, thank you for joining me today,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-7\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My pleasure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-8\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Pleasure having you on the show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-8\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks so much for having me.\u00a0\u00a0This was fun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-9\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Alright, and to the audience, please remember, if you like today&#8217;s episode, please subscribe wherever you download your podcasts\u00a0from. Bye for\u00a0now.<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices have surged amid escalating conflict with Iran, raising concerns about supply disruptions through the critical Strait of Hormuz and the broader impact on global markets. We break down what the latest geopolitical developments could mean for oil prices, inflation and the balance between fear and FOMO driving investor behavior.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":240062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[20558,21249,21253,21246,21252,20935,21251,21250,21215,10995,4231,21247,18882,21254,21248],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-240059","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-commodities-investing","10":"tag-crude-oil-markets","11":"tag-energy-crisis-outlook","12":"tag-energy-markets-outlook","13":"tag-geopolitical-risk-investing","14":"tag-geopolitics-and-markets","15":"tag-global-oil-shock","16":"tag-inflation-and-oil-prices","17":"tag-iran-conflict","18":"tag-market-volatility","19":"tag-oil-prices","20":"tag-oil-supply-disruption","21":"tag-stagflation-risk","22":"tag-stock-market-reaction-to-war","23":"tag-strait-of-hormuz","24":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crude Awakening: Oil and the Iran Conflict | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240059\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crude Awakening: Oil and the Iran Conflict | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Oil prices have surged amid escalating conflict with Iran, raising concerns about supply disruptions through the critical Strait of Hormuz and the broader impact on global markets. We break down what the latest geopolitical developments could mean for oil prices, inflation and the balance between fear and FOMO driving investor behavior.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/crude-awakening-oil-and-the-iran-conflict\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-10T16:13:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-21T19:57:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/pod20260310econ_coverimage.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrew Wilkinson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" 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