{"id":239916,"date":"2026-03-06T12:57:43","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T17:57:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=239916"},"modified":"2026-03-09T06:25:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T10:25:38","slug":"this-is-actually-a-good-day-considering","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/this-is-actually-a-good-day-considering\/","title":{"rendered":"This is Actually a Good Day, Considering\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s a rare day when a jobs number is not the key news item.&nbsp; Yes, those numbers stunk, with a drop in Nonfarm Payrolls and a rise in Unemployment, but it\u2019s a huge \u201ctell\u201d that bond yields are slightly higher after a very brief downtick.&nbsp; This tells us that oil-driven inflation is more of a concern than a poor labor market, which is quite understandable when crude oil futures are trading 10% higher.&nbsp; Considering that we got a dose of bad news on top of even worse news, an S&amp;P 500 (SPX) drop of \u201conly\u201d 1% should be considered a decent result and a testament to traders\u2019 relentlessly positive psychology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, I said \u201cpositive psychology.\u201d&nbsp; Once again, SPX bounced exactly where the charts indicated \u2013 the 6715 level that provided support earlier this week and in late December.&nbsp; And once again, once that support held, opportunistic traders chased the rally to erase about half the index\u2019s initial losses. We\u2019re now well below the 100-day moving average that initially provided support, but we are hardly witnessing a freefall.&nbsp;&nbsp; A significant break below 6700 would put the 200-day moving average into play (around 6580), but we haven\u2019t seen investors willing to force a move to the downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-3-months-daily-candles-with-50-day-grey-100-day-purple-200-day-blue-moving-averages-with-horizontal-line-at-6717-17\"><strong><em>SPX, 3-Months, Daily Candles with 50-day (grey), 100-day (purple), 200-day (blue) Moving Averages with Horizontal line at 6717.17<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"956\" height=\"518\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-22.png\" alt=\"SPX, 3-Months, Daily Candles with 50-day (grey), 100-day (purple), 200-day (blue) Moving Averages with Horizontal line at 6717.17\" class=\"wp-image-239918 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-22.png 956w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-22-700x379.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-22-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-22-768x416.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 956px) 100vw, 956px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 956px; aspect-ratio: 956\/518;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On a normal day, we would be fixated on the February employment report, which is quite difficult to sugarcoat.&nbsp; Nonfarm Payrolls showed a loss of 92,000 jobs &#8212; far, far below the +55K consensus estimate.&nbsp; January was revised down by a mere 4K to +126K, but the two-month revision was another -69K.&nbsp; Combining February\u2019s 147K shortfall with the -69K revision, we end up with 216,000 fewer Nonfarm Payrolls on the books than we thought after the December report.&nbsp; That\u2019s not a huge number when compared to a total labor force of about 170 million, but relatively small changes can yield relatively large adjustments in policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%, above last month\u2019s 4.3%, which was also the consensus estimate.&nbsp; This occurred even as the Labor Force Participation Rate fell to 62% from 62.5%.&nbsp; Considering that the latter number acts as the denominator of the Unemployment Rate, it implies that the number of job seekers rose faster.&nbsp; Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis, matching last month\u2019s rise and above the 0.3% consensus. That\u2019s good news for those who received raises or worked more hours, but not a welcome sign for those who are concerned about stagflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But a modest rise in wages is just a drop in the bucket when it comes to stagflationary fears.&nbsp; A 10% jump in crude oil prices just today is inflation writ large.&nbsp; (Wait, it\u2019s now an 11.5% jump.)&nbsp; April WTI futures (CL) are up $23 this week, or 34%.&nbsp; Yet SPX is down only 1.8% over the course of the week so far.&nbsp; And the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is only down 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let those week-to-date numbers sink in for a second: Oil +34%, SPX -1.8%, NDX -0.6%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maybe we\u2019re not climbing a wall of worry, but we\u2019re certainly hanging onto it by our fingernails.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From whence does this positive psychology emerge?&nbsp; For starters, dip buying remains as ingrained as ever.&nbsp; We saw this when stocks bounced off their lows &#8212; each day, buyers stepped in.&nbsp; Note that every day so far this week, SPX closed well above its intraday lows.&nbsp; Today\u2019s bounce is neither as large, nor is today\u2019s trading finished yet, but the pattern fits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-1-week-5-minute-candles-with-horizontal-line-at-6717-17\"><strong><em>SPX, 1-Week, 5-Minute Candles with Horizontal line at 6717.17<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"599\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-21-1100x599.png\" alt=\"SPX, 1-Week, 5-Minute Candles with Horizontal line at 6717.17\" class=\"wp-image-239917 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-21-1100x599.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-21-700x381.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-21-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-21-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-21.png 1189w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/599;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Implicit in the relatively blas\u00e9 view is the expectation that the Iran conflict will be short-term in nature.&nbsp; The administration has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/world\/why-is-the-us-attacking-iran-heres-what-trump-has-said\/ar-AA1XqzJw?ocid=BingNewsSerp\">offered multiple objectives<\/a> for measuring success in the military campaign.&nbsp; Presumably, accomplishing any one of them could constitute an exit ramp.&nbsp; There are others who have suggested that either a \u201cTrump Put\u201d or a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/newsletters\/morning-money-capital-risk\/2026\/03\/06\/taco-wont-save-you-now-00816098\">Taco Trade<\/a>\u201d might limit the damage.&nbsp; Indeed, the President has focused on lower mortgage rates, lower gasoline prices, and higher stock markets as metrics for the success of his economic policies.&nbsp; The modest decline in stocks is hardly reason for a change in policy \u2013 bear in mind that the strike price on the&nbsp; \u201cTrump Put\u201d that was exercised after \u201cLiberation Day\u201d was about 20% below the prior stock market level \u2013 and the 10-year Treasury yields that influence mortgage rates have risen only about 10 basis points this week, though.&nbsp; Might higher gasoline prices cause a change in mindset, or might protestations from Gulf allies who have been bombed and unable to move crude out of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/kuwait-cuts-oil-production-as-storage-fills-up\/ar-AA1XFcpa?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">now-bloated stockpiles<\/a>?&nbsp; Perhaps.&nbsp; But that is the bet that stock buyers are placing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s a rare day when a jobs number is not the key news item.\u00a0 Yes, those numbers stunk, with a drop in Nonfarm Payrolls and a rise in Unemployment, but it\u2019s a huge \u201ctell\u201d that bond yields are slightly higher after a very brief downtick.\u00a0 This tells us that oil-driven inflation is more of a concern than a poor labor market, which is quite understandable when crude oil futures are trading 10% higher.\u00a0 Considering that we got a dose of bad news on top of even worse news, an S&amp;P 500 (SPX) drop of \u201conly\u201d 1% should be considered a decent result and a testament to traders\u2019 relentlessly positive psychology.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":182829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-239916","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>This is Actually a Good Day, Considering\u2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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