{"id":239838,"date":"2026-03-05T10:15:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T15:15:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=239838"},"modified":"2026-03-06T05:04:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:04:05","slug":"above-the-noise-investor-angst-and-market-endurance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/above-the-noise-investor-angst-and-market-endurance\/","title":{"rendered":"Above the Noise: Investor angst and market endurance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US-Iran conflict<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We aren\u2019t changing our positive view on stocks, but we\u2019ll be watching developments closely as events unfold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resilient markets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Markets have generally proven resilient and delivered positive returns in the 12 months after major military events.1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Artificial intelligence (AI)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The software correction feels like a reset in positioning, sentiment, and valuation, not a collapse in the underlying AI thesis.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the recent escalation between the US and Iran, I planned to open this month\u2019s Above the Noise on a more personal note. My oldest daughter turns 18 later this month. From the moment my daughters were born (her younger sister is 15), I was warned repeatedly about the teenage years. There\u2019s simply a lot going on at that age, emotionally, socially, and mentally, much of it beyond their control. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That perspective often shapes how I think about markets. There\u2019s always a lot going on. Every cycle brings its own set of worries, shocks, and narratives that test our nerves and demand our attention. The developing conflict between the US and Iran<\/a> is simply the latest in a long list of events that have unsettled investors over time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the situation still in its early stages, I want to make three key points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, history is instructive. Markets have generally proven resilient following geopolitical shocks. Often, stock markets have delivered positive returns in the 12 months after major military events<\/a>. We examined 11 points in history where we experienced a peak in the Geopolitical Risk Index \u2014 from the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis to the 2023 Israel\/Hamas conflict \u2014 and the return of the S&P 500 Index 12 months after that peak. In most cases, the stock market rose in the year following peak geopolitical risk, with an average rise of 15.3% across all 11 conflicts.1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, as a market strategist, I always view events like these through a consistent lens. Does this materially change the trajectory of global growth or central bank policy? In most cases, the answer is no. For that to change now, we\u2019d likely need to see a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of the world\u2019s oil supply flows, and a sustained surge in oil prices.2<\/a><\/sup> Prolonged and sustained are the operative words. While that risk exists, it\u2019s not our base case. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, the global economy today is less dependent on oil than in past decades, and oil supply growth was already expected to outpace demand this year.3<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, we aren\u2019t changing our positive view on stocks, but we\u2019ll be watching developments closely as events unfold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Phone a friend<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve received enough questions on AI<\/a> this month that I phoned two friends to talk about it! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is the AI bubble bursting? I posed the question to Justin Livengood, a Senior Portfolio Manager for Invesco\u2019s Midcap Growth strategy. His response:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNo, and I don\u2019t believe there\u2019s an AI bubble to burst. Parts of the market got ahead of themselves and are now correcting. That\u2019s an important distinction. What we\u2019re seeing right now feels much more like a reset in positioning, sentiment, and valuation rather than a collapse in the underlying AI thesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were some excesses built up in areas like software. Many of those companies are still grappling with uncertainty about business models, pricing power, and how AI ultimately reshapes demand, and there aren\u2019t yet clear catalysts to reverse that narrative. In short, the market has become more discriminating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drivers of demand appear to still be real, however. Capital spending is still happening, and the biggest players funding this cycle have extremely strong balance sheets.4<\/a><\/sup> If this were a true bubble bursting, then you\u2019d expect to see capital spending freeze and earnings visibility collapse across the ecosystem. We\u2019ve been seeing the opposite in semiconductors, infrastructure, and power-related areas.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why have stocks of select asset managers focused on direct lending and private credit declined sharply this year? I posed the question to Ronald Kantowitz, Head of Private Debt for Invesco’s global private credit group. His response:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSoftware has long represented one of the largest exposures within direct lending, often comprising 25% or more of industry commitments.5<\/a><\/sup> The sector has historically benefitted from recurring revenue, healthy margins, and strong free cash flow.6<\/a><\/sup> Recently, sustained capital deployment pressure has driven valuations and leverage higher, as well as diluted the effectiveness of lender documentation.7<\/a><\/sup> As recent volatility across software credits has demonstrated, disciplined underwriting and conservative structures matter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was said<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Dow is over 50,000 right now. The S&P is almost at 7,000, and the Nasdaq is smashing records.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014Pam Bondi, US Attorney General<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This one lets me get to one of my favorite points. Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average did briefly hit 50,000. And 1.5 years ago, it hit 40,000 under President Biden. And 3.5 years before that, it hit 30,000 during President Trump\u2019s first term in office. And four years before that, it hit 20,000 during President Obama\u2019s term.8<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This shouldn\u2019t be a surprise. Stock market averages are reflective of the growing economy in the US and the world. If we believe that the world will continue to get better, then we expect markets to trend upward over long periods and to hit many new highs, regardless of who\u2019s president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think\/rethink<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s an assumption that many people think is correct, and what\u2019s the actual story?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think<\/strong>: The size of the US debt<\/a> is unsustainable, and investors are increasingly losing their appetite to invest in US Treasuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rethink<\/strong>: The US Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at the February 12 auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.66, meaning that there was 2.66x more money wanting to buy the bonds than bonds available.9<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the road again<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

My 2026 travel has already taken me to Orlando, Phoenix, Austin, Chicago, Atlanta, Orange County, and Palm Beach. It sounds like a Huey Lewis and the News song! Perhaps I shouldn\u2019t have told my wife during COVID-19 that virtual meetings will henceforth replace travel. The Who\u2019s final tour was never really the final tour. I\u2019m not complaining. I\u2019m thrilled that clients still want to meet in person. Perhaps AI isn\u2019t replacing human connection just yet!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted <\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Footnotes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Dec. 31, 2024. The Caldara and Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index reflects automated text-search results of the electronic archives of 10 newspapers: Chicago Tribune, the Daily Telegraph, Financial Times, The Globe and Mail, The Guardian, the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Caldara and Iacoviello calculate the index by counting the number of articles related to adverse geopolitical events in each newspaper for each month (as a share of the total number of news articles). The conflicts and the S&P 500 return 12 months after the peak in the Geopolitical Risk Index were: 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis (35.3%), 1967 Six-Day War (13.3%), 1973 Yom Kippur War (-28.8%), 1979-1989 USSR\/Afghanistan (8.2%), 1982 Falkland Islands (49.1%), 1990 Iraq\/Kuwait (26.9%), 1991 Persian Gulf War (22.6%), 2001 September 11 (-20.4%), 2003 US\/Iraq (35.0%), 2022 Russia\/Ukraine (-6.7%), 2023 Israel\/Hamas (34.1).\u00a0An investment cannot be made directly in an index.\u00a0Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Source: US Energy Information Administration, March 2, 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Source: US Energy Information Administration, Jan. 31, 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Source: Motley Fool, \u201cHyperscalers Plan to Spend $700 Billion on AI This Year. These 2 Stocks Are the Biggest Beneficiaries.\u201d The capital spending and strong balance sheets are based on the earnings reports of Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, where they committed to significantly greater investment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Source: Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, Sep. 30, 2025. Latest data available.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Source: Bloomberg, L.P., Dec. 31, 2025, based on the companies in the S&P 500 Software Industry GICs Level 3 Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. Source: Invesco Private Credit and Bloomberg, L.P., Dec. 31, 2025, based on the companies in the S&P 500 Software Industry GICs Level 3 Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  8. Source: Bloomberg, L.P. Feb. 20, 2026, based on the index price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  9. Source: US Treasury Department, Feb. 12, 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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