{"id":239807,"date":"2026-03-04T12:57:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T17:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=239807"},"modified":"2026-03-05T05:43:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T10:43:12","slug":"the-harder-they-come-plus-avgo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/the-harder-they-come-plus-avgo\/","title":{"rendered":"The Harder They Come; Plus AVGO"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(Today\u2019s theme song by Jimmy Cliff<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although US markets have seen volatility increase in response to the situation in Iran, it pales in comparison to various markets abroad.  Compared with most major global indices, the S&P 500 (SPX) has been downright somnolent.  On the positive side, after months of underperformance, the placidity of SPX has proven a boon to US investors this week.  As we see a resurgence in risk assets this morning, we should also be looking ahead to this afternoon\u2019s earnings report from Broadcom (AVGO).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I got my start trading international equities, and old habits die hard.  Like many of you, I check the performance of overnight US index futures shortly after the alarm rings.  (I am also convinced that at least some of you then hit the \u201cbuy\u201d button<\/a> almost immediately.)  I then move quickly to see what Treasuries and key global indices have done while I was asleep.  This week, while there have been some relatively large drops in US futures, the moves in various foreign markets have been far more substantial.  But that\u2019s the flip side of a months\u2019-long pattern \u2013 many of those markets were significant outperformers on the upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coming into this morning, SPX was essentially flat.  As of yesterday, it was down less than \u00bd% on a year-to-date basis, and as I type this, thanks to today\u2019s bounce, that index is up by a similar amount.  This return is rather unexceptional when compared to several other countries\u2019 flagship indices, particularly in Asia and emerging markets.  At their peaks, indices like Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 (NKY), Brazil\u2019s Bovespa, and especially South Korea\u2019s KOSPI had put in double-digit gains in just the two months since the start of the year.  The chart below shows the normalized year-to-date performances of various key developed market indices.  Depicting SPX with candlesticks saves it from looking like a nearly flat line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year-to-date, Normalized SPX (blue\/white candles), Nikkei 225 (dark blue line), FTSE 100 (red line), Euro Stoxx 50 (yellow line), Hang Seng (light blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Year-to-date,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the truly stellar chart belongs to the KOSPI.  You may have seen headlines about a market crash in Korea<\/a>, and they are hardly hyperbole.  That index fell 12% overnight, a record percentage drop, bringing its two-day loss to 18%.  That\u2019s almost a bear market!  To be fair, this comes after an absolutely phenomenal run-up; the index is still up over 20% year-to-date!  The key catalyst was the global demand for memory chips, pushing key manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix to heavy weights in that index and accelerating performance.  As a result, the move in KOSPI is stunningly reminiscent of another recent parabolic run-up and bout of profit-taking — that of silver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1-Year, KOSPI (white\/blue candles, left scale) with 30-Day Moving Average (yellow, left) versus Front Month Rolling Silver Futures (magenta, right)<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"1-Year,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a morning like this, or after the substantial intraday bounces over the past two days, we might think that US investors are relentlessly optimistic \u2013 and that\u2019s largely true.  Dips are continually perceived as buying opportunities, and stocks are prone to rally sharply on any optimistic developments.  But when compared to the mood in many markets, our exuberance seems hardly irrational.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today we get a key set of results in the tech sector when AVGO reports after the close.  The stock has been on a bit of a decline since about three weeks ago, with last week\u2019s selling in Nvidia (NVDA) after a set of positive results further dampening the mood:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1-Month, AVGO (red\/green hourly candles), NVDA (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"1-Month,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In turn, options traders are pricing in some modest risk aversion.  At-money options expiring on Friday are pricing in a roughly 7.8% daily move, which seems substantial, but which is well below the 11.5% average move after the last six quarters\u2019 reports (-11.43%, 9.41%, -5.0%, 8.64%, 24.43%, -10.36%).  Despite this, skews show a modest downside bias, though the IBKR Probability Lab is generally symmetrical:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for AVGO Options Expiring March 6th<\/sup> (top), 13th<\/sup> (middle), 20th<\/sup>, 2026 (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Skews<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for Options Expiring March 6th<\/sup>, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although US markets have seen volatility increase in response to the situation in Iran, it pales in comparison to various markets abroad.\u00a0 Compared with most major global indices, the S&P 500 (SPX) has been downright somnolent.\u00a0 On the positive side, after months of underperformance, the placidity of SPX has proven a boon to US investors this week. \u00a0As we see a resurgence in risk assets this morning, we should also be looking ahead to this afternoon\u2019s earnings report from Broadcom (AVGO).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":236604,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-239807","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Harder They Come; 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