{"id":239442,"date":"2026-02-24T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=239442"},"modified":"2026-02-25T04:32:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-25T09:32:19","slug":"markets-take-supreme-court-tariff-ruling-us-iran-tensions-in-stride","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/markets-take-supreme-court-tariff-ruling-us-iran-tensions-in-stride\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets take Supreme Court tariff ruling, US-Iran tensions in stride"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tariff decision<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Supreme Court struck down Trump\u2019s tariffs, but we expect the Office of the US Trade Representative to pivot to a plan B.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US-Iran<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tensions have been rising, but we don\u2019t expect these developments to derail global stock markets or end the business cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

US GDP was weaker than expected, and Personal Consumption Expenditures somewhat hotter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You know there\u2019s a lot going on when, within the first two months of the year, you keep reaching for the Vladimir Lenin line: \u201cThere are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.\u201d For markets, however, the more important question is not whether a decade\u2019s worth of events occurred in a single week, but whether those events were unexpected. Looking at the events from last week \u2014 from a Supreme Court tariff ruling to US-Iran tensions to economic and inflation data \u2014 the answer is largely no. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The tariffs that President Trump enacted last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were struck down in a 6-3 ruling<\/a> by the US Supreme Court on Friday.1<\/a><\/sup> Was that a shock? Not particularly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We now expect the Office of the US Trade Representative to pivot to a plan B, potentially re-enacting these tariffs using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, or Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, or some combination of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Supreme Court\u2019s decision offered no guidance on refunds, including whether refunds are required at all, and we wouldn\u2019t expect any to be issued soon, if ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bond<\/a> yields rose modestly in response, but a 30-year US Treasury yield of 4.72% suggests that the market remains largely unconcerned about the sustainability of US debt.2<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions flare between the US and Iran<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Attention then shifted to rising tensions between the US and Iran. Again, this wasn\u2019t a surprise. These risks have been well-signaled for some time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From an investment perspective, we believe geopolitical events should always be evaluated through the lens of whether they meaningfully alter global growth or the actions of the world\u2019s central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve<\/a> (Fed). Iran is a relatively small economy and, while it produces roughly 3%\u20134% of global oil supply, most of which is exported to China.3<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices have risen on the tensions, but from relatively low levels, and global supply growth continues to outpace demand, with inventories expected to build in 2026.4<\/a><\/sup> This is not a 1970s-style oil shock, nor is it likely to alter the Fed\u2019s easy policy stance, in our view. As a result, we don\u2019t expect these developments to derail global stock markets or end the business cycle. History supports this view, as the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) rose 14.28% in the six months following the start of the 12-day Israel-Iran war on June 13, 2025.5<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

New US economic data was weaker than expected<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US gross domestic product (GDP) was weaker than expected6<\/a><\/sup> and inflation<\/a>, measured by core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), was somewhat hotter.7<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should that be surprising? Perhaps at the headline level for GDP, but the softness was driven primarily by delayed government spending. The US consumer remained healthy, and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) continued at a strong pace. Core PCE strength was driven largely by inflation in services prices rather than goods and reflects reasonably solid underlying demand. We\u2019d expect inflation to moderate over time as productivity gains from AI become more evident. We don\u2019t believe this changes the trajectory for the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line: Stock fundamentals remain sound<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In short, it may feel as though a decade is happening every week, but we believe the fundamentals for the stock markets remain sound, with relatively strong nominal growth and a US central bank that\u2019s still likely to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What to watch this week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Date<\/strong><\/th>Region<\/strong><\/th>Event<\/strong><\/th>Why it matters<\/strong><\/th><\/tr>
Feb. 24<\/td>US<\/td>Consumer confidence<\/td>Gauge of consumer sentiment affecting spending<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>Eurozone<\/td>Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Jan.)<\/td>Key inflation gauge<\/td><\/tr>
Feb. 25<\/td>US<\/td>New residential sales<\/td>Housing market strength indicator<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>Corporate Bond Market Distress Index<\/td>Measures stress in corporate bond markets<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>Eurozone<\/td>Gross domestic product (GDP) (Q4 final)<\/td>Economic growth<\/td><\/tr>
Feb. 26<\/td>US<\/td>Advance durable goods<\/td>Signals business investment and demand<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>Gross domestic product (GDP) (2nd release)<\/td>Updated view of economic growth<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>Initial jobless claims<\/td>Labor market conditions<\/td><\/tr>
Feb. 27<\/td>US<\/td>New York Federal Reserve staff Nowcast<\/td>Real-time GDP estimate<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on February 23, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets take Supreme Court tariff ruling, US-Iran tensions in stride<\/a> by Invesco US<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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