{"id":239399,"date":"2026-02-23T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=239399"},"modified":"2026-02-24T02:56:01","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T07:56:01","slug":"ai-disruption-is-reshaping-software-and-credit-markets-may-be-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/ai-disruption-is-reshaping-software-and-credit-markets-may-be-next\/","title":{"rendered":"AI Disruption Is Reshaping Software \u2014 And Credit Markets May Be Next"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As investors debate whether software stocks have bottomed and the Nasdaq can regain momentum, some market watchers warn the AI boom may not play out as Wall Street expects.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For\u00a0Jordi Visser<\/strong>, head of AI Macro Nexus Research at 22V Research, the real story isn’t about a rebound in the broader Nasdaq 100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is not a cycle. This is a regime shift. This is going at light speed,\u201d he said in his latest video on YouTube.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his view, AI isn’t just another growth driver \u2014 it’s a deflationary force that can reshape corporate economics, credit markets and labor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“We are entering a phase of multiple compression across anything related to software,” Visser said in his weekly podcast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the question isn’t when growth stocks recover \u2014 it’s whether the economics that supported them for the past decade still apply in a world where intelligence can be replicated instantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Structural Shift, Not A Cycle<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The core of Visser’s thesis is that AI is accelerating competition so quickly that traditional long-duration valuation models are breaking down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For more than a decade, software enjoyed asset-light economics, recurring revenue and long-duration growth assumptions. That era, he argues, is ending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why? Because AI collapses barriers to entry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When code can be generated in seconds, customized on demand and improved autonomously, scarcity disappears \u2014 and without scarcity, long-duration valuation premiums can’t hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He calls attempts to bottom-fish beaten-down SaaS names “playing the game of the prior decade.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his framework, widening dispersion between winners and losers isn’t noise \u2014 it’s markets pricing radical uncertainty into future cash flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“In a world where software can be created in seconds, the old model breaks,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dispersion Signals Stress Beneath The Surface<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One of the key indicators Visser highlights is the surge in equity dispersion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe S&P is flat year-to-date, yet 185 stocks have posted greater than 15% absolute moves in both directions, double the 81 names we saw on this same day last year,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat level of dispersion has only been matched twice in 30 years: during the dot-com bust and the GFC,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Visser, those episodes of extreme dispersion have preceded wider credit spreads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Credit is the key signal to watch \u2014 that’s where the next fear could emerge,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not A Bubble \u2014 But Potentially Deflationary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Visser’s most controversial view may be this: AI is inherently deflationary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As AI models improve and costs fall \u2014 particularly with the rise of lower-cost open-source alternatives \u2014 pricing power across parts of the software ecosystem could come under sustained pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“This is incredibly deflationary once you reach intelligence-scale competition,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem isn’t innovation; it\u2019s monetization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if revenue expectations miss while capex remains fixed, credit markets eventually react.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Private markets, software debt, and even hyperscaler capital expenditure plans could eventually feel second-order effects if revenue expectations are revised lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volatility Likely To Persist<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For now, Visser stops short of calling for a systemic crisis. Corporate earnings and macro growth remain relatively firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But he expects the transition to be turbulent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Expect persistent volatility \u2014 not systemic risk, but structural messiness,” he said, adding that multiple sharp corrections remain possible even in a broadly sideways market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bigger message for investors: the AI era may reward a very different set of winners than the last decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“AI is a supersonic tsunami disrupting anything not based on scarcity,” Visser said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If he’s right, the next phase of the market cycle may be defined less by broad index direction \u2014 and more by who adapts fastest to the new competitive reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPhysical infrastructure, commodities, industrials, and hardware are poised to become the structural winners of this new era,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted February 23, 2026 – AI Disruption Is Reshaping Software \u2014 And Credit Markets May Be Next<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As investors debate whether software stocks have bottomed and the Nasdaq can regain momentum, some market watchers warn the AI boom may not play out as Wall Street expects.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":235302,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-239399","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAI Disruption Is Reshaping Software \u2014 And Credit Markets May Be 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