{"id":238962,"date":"2026-02-11T13:09:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T18:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=238962"},"modified":"2026-02-11T13:23:40","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T18:23:40","slug":"jobs-not-bad-and-indexers-hoodwinked-by-spx","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/jobs-not-bad-and-indexers-hoodwinked-by-spx\/","title":{"rendered":"Jobs Not Bad, and Indexers Hoodwinked by SPX"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Equities got off to a fast start this morning after a surprisingly positive jobs report.  Stock traders were encouraged \u2013 and bond traders dismayed \u2013 by an increase of 130,000 Nonfarm Payrolls and an Unemployment Rate that dipped to 4.3%.  Both beat expectations and diminished expectations for rate cuts.  As the morning wore on, however, the reaction morphed from enthusiastic to cautious.  Meanwhile, news on some recent S&P 500 (SPX) additions pointed out an unfortunate feature for indexers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stock traders\u2019 initial choice after the jobs report seemed to be this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Weaker jobs \u00e0 more aggressive rate cuts \u00e0 good for stocks<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Stronger jobs \u00e0 better economy \u00e0 stronger corporate earnings power \u00e0 good for stocks<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    They chose option (b) from the \u201cheads I win, tails I win\u201d decision tree above.  Bond traders, however, were unable to twist the data to a preferred narrative.  The stronger-than-expected Payrolls and Unemployment, along with a better-than-feared -862,000 Final Benchmark Payrolls Revision (published consensus was -825k, but \u201cwhisper numbers\u201d were as big as -1 million), led immediately to higher rates.  Fed Funds futures<\/a> pushed back the full likelihood of a 25-basis point cut to July from June (that timing was pulled forward on February 5th<\/sup> after a big drop in JOLTS Job Openings), and yields accordingly rose across the curve.  As I type this before noon ET, yields are off their highest levels of the morning, though.  The 2- and 10-year Treasury yields had risen nearly 9 bp in the initial response to the jobs report, but they are now up only about 5 and 1 bp, respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Some of the concerns about today\u2019s employment report stemmed from comments made on CNBC by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Monday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cI think that you should expect slightly smaller job numbers that are consistent with high GDP growth right now\u2026 One shouldn\u2019t panic if you see a sequence of numbers that are lower than you\u2019re used to, because, again, population growth is going down and productivity growth is skyrocketing.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Many traders understandably interpreted that statement as foreshadowing a downbeat report today.  The chart below shows the pricing on ForecastEx for a \u201cYES\u201d to \u201cWill the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed 50,000 in January 2026?\u201d  Note the plunge that occurred on Monday in response to Hassett\u2019s comments:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ForecastEx Pricing for \u201cYES\u201d on \u201cWill the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed 50,000 in January 2026?\u201d <\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \"ForecastEx<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Source: <\/em>ForecastEx<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Hence, we got large initial reactions to the better-than-expected and much better-than-feared jobs data.  Markets were caught by surprise and reacted accordingly.  As the morning wore on, so did a return to the prior status quo, and we find ourselves looking at roughly unchanged stock indices as I type this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    At this point, I want to switch gears to point out an unfortunate feature for indexers.  The recent downturn in software stocks got me thinking about the performance of AppLovin (APP) since it joined the S&P 500 (SPX) in September and how it has been a drag on passive investors who benchmark to that index.  Today\u2019s post-earnings decline in Robinhood (HOOD) inspired me to do some quick research into the post-inclusion performances of the most recent SPX additions.  There have been 11 since December 2024, and the performance has been decidedly mixed:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Stock<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Sources: Interactive Brokers, Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Despite the mixed results, there is a key pattern that emerges: the bigger the bump between index announcement and inclusion, the worse the post-inclusion performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I attribute this directly to how hyped-up individual investors were about the stocks\u2019 index inclusions.  Names like APP, HOOD, Block (XYZ), and Workday (WDAY) have big followings among retail accounts and saw big jumps after the news that they would be joining SPX.  All have fallen sharply since.  Meanwhile, stocks that had only modest bumps after their announcements tended to do better.  This is hardly a significant statistical sample, but it does leave index trackers with an unfortunate outcome when they are forced to purchase stocks after big run-ups caused by enthusiastic individual investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Equities got off to a fast start this morning after a surprisingly positive jobs report. Stock traders were encouraged \u2013 and bond traders dismayed \u2013 by an increase of 130,000 Nonfarm Payrolls and an Unemployment Rate that dipped to 4.3%. Both beat expectations and diminished expectations for rate cuts. As the morning wore on, however, the reaction morphed from enthusiastic to cautious. Meanwhile, news on some recent S&P 500 (SPX) additions pointed out an unfortunate feature for indexers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":238965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-238962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJobs Not Bad, and Indexers Hoodwinked by SPX<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Equities got off to a fast start this morning after a surprisingly positive jobs report. 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