{"id":238954,"date":"2026-02-11T12:11:48","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T17:11:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=238954"},"modified":"2026-02-19T10:05:18","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T15:05:18","slug":"is-ai-casting-a-cloud-over-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-ai-casting-a-cloud-over-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"Is AI Casting a Cloud Over Investors?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Artificial intelligence is driving markets, but is it also creating uncertainty for investors? Andrew Wilkinson sits down with Kevin Davitt, Head of Index Options Content at Nasdaq, to discuss whether recent market rotation reflects healthy broadening or a cloudier outlook ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Is AI Casting a Cloud Over Investors?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=rbgpq-1a425ea-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-352\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 352<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to this week\u2019s market minute.\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0Andrew Wilkinson. My\u00a0guest\u00a0is Kevin Davitt \u00a0from the NASDAQ. Kevin, welcome back to the program.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you so much for having me, Andrew.\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0looking forward to it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>All right. We just had the delayed January employment report this morning.\u00a0I think 130,000 jobs\u00a0were created,\u00a0unemployment\u00a0rate down to 4.3%. Half of the job gains came from the healthcare sector, so\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0unusual for a kickoff. But outside of the job picture, anything you want to pick on?\u00a0How\u2019s\u00a0the macro picture shaping up from your vantage point, Kevin?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-0\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think the way you started that with an employment framing is an important one\u2014that some of the concern, big picture, about the market, which we\u2019ve seen kind of come front and center over the past two weeks across different sessions, has been over the resilience and the impact of AI and where it might jeopardize things like jobs.\u00a0Now, over the past couple of years, the market has\u00a0remained\u00a0incredibly resilient, driven in large part by the names we talk about regularly that drive the NASDAQ 100 and the market broadly. But the economy\u00a0largely comes\u00a0down to consumer spending, and that is driven by people having jobs.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So\u00a0I think\u00a0your\u00a0question about the big picture\u2014the market\u2019s always looking forward, right? Or at least\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0told that. And there has been concern about what the next six months or a year looks like. I think a lot of that has been predicated on whether this new outgrowth of technology is going to cannibalize employment. One data point does not necessarily make a trend.\u00a0But I think\u00a0I\u2019ve\u00a0said this before on your podcast: Americans are\u00a0very good\u00a0at\u00a0a number of\u00a0things,\u00a0but in particular,\u00a0they\u2019re\u00a0good at spending. And your question about the macro picture\u2014I would argue that things are\u00a0fairly good. I would\u00a0caveat\u00a0that with my general tendency to skew toward what could go wrong. And really, today is just another data point.\u00a0But generally speaking, big picture, it does seem like the economy remains on the rails, and I would say the broadening of the rally is some indication of that, which maybe we\u2019ll get into.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I always find that despite the upswing, investors\u00a0have to\u00a0continually beat themselves up\u00a0in order to\u00a0just\u00a0kind of say, \u201cYeah, this is real. Things are okay.\u201d Kevin, can you frame the relative performance of equity prices to start the year? What can you distill from the relative performance of different indices and places?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-1\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think there has been an interesting performance. Maybe\u2014okay, so\u00a0we\u2019ll\u00a0start with year to date, and then, as is my tendency,\u00a0I\u2019ll\u00a0broaden that perspective just ever so slightly.\u00a0Year to date, the NASDAQ 100\u2014the index that\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0very excited\u00a0to support\u2014has lagged\u00a0relative\u00a0to things like the S&amp;Ps and the Russell 2000. The small caps have really been\u00a0kind of the\u00a0belle of the ball. If you look more broadly beyond U.S.-centric markets, emerging markets have really done exceptionally well. Places in Asia, like South Korea, are doing very, very well.\u00a0Now, if you broaden that perspective, the relative performance looks\u00a0very different. Your question centered on this year has been that small caps and\u00a0kind of the\u00a0unloved names have been doing better\u00a0relative\u00a0to the names and indices that have led the markets for the better part of the past four years. That makeup, I think, is interesting in terms of\u00a0what\u2019s\u00a0often called\u00a0old\u00a0economy\u00a0relative\u00a0to\u00a0new\u00a0economy.\u00a0And going back to the point you and I were going back and forth on just a minute ago, the back and forth and the potential for technology to improve businesses in other areas is\u00a0a really exciting\u00a0development here.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>What shadow is AI casting over the market at present? On the one hand, there are efficiencies to be had, but on the other hand,\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0talk of entire sectors becoming increasingly vulnerable to job losses. What are you seeing, and are investors overreacting?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-2\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So\u00a0the real crux of the concern of late has been around software, and that was driven in no small part by advances from Anthropic\u2014around tools that make it seem like software-as-a-service companies\u2019 business models could be jeopardized.\u00a0Now, if you look at the performance of some of those\u00a0names\u00a0year to date, there are some meaningful drawdowns. And last week, Microsoft was\u00a0kind of front\u00a0and center as far as that selling was concerned.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Your point about the shadow\u2014I think it\u00a0goes back to people looking at the fact that the markets have done exceptionally well from the 2022 bottoms. And myself included,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0always looking at, \u201cMan,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0been a great run. What might I do to protect myself or position toward areas that\u00a0maybe have\u00a0been unloved?\u201d And I think\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0going on.\u00a0 If I focus more specifically on the NASDAQ 100 and look at the relative mix, you see things like semiconductor manufacturers doing exceptionally well this year.\u00a0So\u00a0the likes of ASML, Lam Research, and AMAT\u2014they\u2019re\u00a0all up 30-plus percent.\u00a0It\u2019s interesting to see names like Micron, Intel, and Texas Instruments doing really, really well.\u00a0But the names that you and I\u2014and everybody\u2014have talked about for the better part of the past couple of years\u2014the\u00a0Nvidias, the\u00a0Broadcoms, the Googles\u2014are\u00a0kind of middling,\u00a0up\u00a0or down 2%, right, for these mega-cap names.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But what does that mean? It means that money is flowing to different areas of the market. And I would argue, taking a\u00a0big-picture\u00a0view, that\u00a0that is a healthy development. Seeing that torch passed\u2014you know, with the Winter Olympics going on now\u2014it could be viewed as a good sign.\u00a0And this\u00a0is coming\u00a0from somebody\u00a0who\u2019s\u00a0always looking for the glass to be half empty.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, to stick with the analogies here, Kevin, in order for there to be a shadow, there\u2019s got to be a sun\u2014a light in the background, right?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-3\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I love it\u2014the philosophical angle\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0getting into. With Mother Nature, days\u00a0getting\u00a0longer, and I think as we move through this earnings season, we will\u00a0likely see\u00a0continued growth in earnings.\u00a0That has really driven\u2014if\u00a0you\u2019re\u00a0a fundamental type and you look at things like P\/E ratios\u2014they really have not expanded, and in many\u00a0areas\u00a0they\u2019ve\u00a0contracted over the past year. And\u00a0so\u00a0through that lens, right, as we move through Q4 and close the door on earnings for 2025,\u00a0I think that\u00a0look back is going to be quite a positive one. Then we shift our attention to what Q1 is going to look like.\u00a0And generally speaking, it seems like the economy is on the rails.\u00a0There\u2019s\u00a0been a broadening and a great deal of dispersion\u2014something you and I talk about periodically. And that can be\u00a0rewarding\u00a0from a stock-picker standpoint. How that plays out at the index level is something I pay a whole lot of attention to.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Brilliant. Kevin Davitt, Head of Index Options Content at the NASDAQ\u2014thank you very much for joining me again today.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-4\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My pleasure.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And to the audience, thank you for joining us both. Remember to subscribe wherever you download podcasts. Bye for now.\u00a0<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Artificial intelligence is driving markets, but is it also creating uncertainty for investors? Andrew Wilkinson sits down with Kevin Davitt, Head of Index Options Content at Nasdaq, to discuss whether recent market rotation reflects healthy broadening or a cloudier outlook ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":238955,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[21139,15018,21138,15089,1840,18761,7590,12602,3922,10995,1081,17466,11838,4722],"contributors-categories":[13576,13756],"class_list":{"0":"post-238954","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-ai-and-jobs","10":"tag-ai-investing","11":"tag-artificial-intelligence-markets","12":"tag-employment-data","13":"tag-equity-markets","14":"tag-investing-podcast","15":"tag-investor-sentiment","16":"tag-macro-economy","17":"tag-market-rotation","18":"tag-market-volatility","19":"tag-nasdaq-100","20":"tag-sector-performance","21":"tag-stock-market-outlook","22":"tag-technology-stocks","23":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","24":"contributors-categories-nasdaq"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is AI Casting a Cloud Over Investors? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238954\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is AI Casting a Cloud Over Investors? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Artificial intelligence is driving markets, but is it also creating uncertainty for investors? 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