{"id":238913,"date":"2026-02-10T12:54:06","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T17:54:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=238913"},"modified":"2026-02-10T14:02:49","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T19:02:49","slug":"forecast-expectations-for-tomorrows-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-expectations-for-tomorrows-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Expectations for Tomorrow\u2019s Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment: Feb. 10, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Forecast expectations for tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payrolls print signal a 55% probability of a figure north of 50k, but there\u2019s a wide range of possible outcomes when looking at estimates throughout Wall Street. The median estimate stands at 70k across the 75 economists in the monthly Reuters poll, which would be the strongest since September, although a few penciled in some surprises, with the minimum and maximum values hovering at -10k and 135k. Meanwhile, participants in the IBKR prediction market price out a 93% chance for a number above -50k and I consider that to be the undervalued trade as I don\u2019t think a drop of that magnitude is in the cards for this report and neither do any of my colleagues whose projections are represented in the survey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Unemployment Is More Predictable<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The unemployment rate is more predictable meanwhile, as it has a subdued deviation history relative to its nonfarm payrolls counterpart which is released in the same publication. The IBKR prediction market is generally expecting a figure between 4.3% and 4.5% and similarly, the monthly Reuters poll of 74 forecasters carries a median of 4.4% amidst minimums and maximums at 4.3% and 4.5%. The probabilities in the ForecastTrader of a number exceeding 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, and 4.5% are currently at 93%, 69%, 34% and 15%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 10, 2026.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forecast expectations for tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payrolls print signal a 55% probability of a figure north of 50k, but there\u2019s a wide range of possible outcomes when looking at estimates throughout Wall Street. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":113983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-238913","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast Expectations for Tomorrow\u2019s Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment: Feb. 10, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Forecast expectations for tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payrolls print signal a 55% 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