{"id":238844,"date":"2026-02-09T10:30:50","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T15:30:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=238844"},"modified":"2026-02-09T12:08:28","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T17:08:28","slug":"bitcoin-drops-from-90000-to-70000-in-2-weeks-but-much-of-the-bad-news-already-priced-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bitcoin-drops-from-90000-to-70000-in-2-weeks-but-much-of-the-bad-news-already-priced-in\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Drops From $90,000 To $70,000 In 2 Weeks, But ‘Much Of The Bad News Already Priced In’"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin<\/strong>\u00a0(CRYPTO:\u00a0<\/a>BTC<\/a>)\u00a0has logged its steepest two-week drawdown since June 2022, but\u00a0Bitwise<\/strong>\u00a0Chief Investment Officer\u00a0Matt Hougan<\/strong>\u00a0says \u201cmuch of the bad news is already priced in\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hogan identified<\/a> six factors driving the crash:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Front-running the four-year cycle: long-term crypto investors sold to avoid the historical\u00a0pattern<\/a>\u00a0of three up years followed by a down year (2014, 2018, 2022, 2026). Hougan estimates these investors sold well over $100 billion of Bitcoin last year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Attention shifted to AI and metals: retail \u201cattention investors\u201d who drove crypto higher rotated capital into AI stocks and precious metals, partially withdrawing from crypto.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. October 10 leverage liquidation: Bitcoin experienced its largest leveraged blowout in history when Trump announced a surprise 100% tariff on Chinese goods after market close on a Friday, forcing traders to use crypto markets to express displeasure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Hawkish Fed Chair pick: the nomination of\u00a0Kevin Warsh<\/strong>\u00a0as Fed Chair on January 30 spooked markets, with Warsh seen as the most hawkish candidate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Quantum computing fears: rising concern among Bitcoin advocates that the community isn\u2019t addressing quantum computing risks kept some long-term investors on the sidelines.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Macro risk-off sentiment: Bitcoin wasn\u2019t alone. Gold fell 4%, silver tumbled 20%, and tech stocks like\u00a0Microsoft<\/strong>\u00a0Palantir<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Amazon<\/strong>\u00a0dropped significantly.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Signs of Exhaustion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    On-chain data reveals long-term holders stopped selling aggressively and some are buying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Open interest on Bitcoin derivatives exchanges fell to 2024 levels. Rate cut expectations are increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Moreover, Sentiment is hovering near historic lows, matching levels that marked crypto bottoms in 2018 and 2022, suggesting the market has already priced in much of the bad news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Could It Fall Further?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Yes. Previous drawdowns were larger: Bitcoin fell 86% in 2014, 84% in 2018, and 77% in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Prior downturns lasted 12-13 months, meaning this one could continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, Hougan argues crypto is more mature now, making a 77% drawdown less likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This differs from 2022\u2014no signs of forced selling tied to insolvency or broken market infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Hougan said crypto bear markets \u201ctend to end in exhaustion, not excitement.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Potential catalysts include the Clarity Act passing, risk-on market shift, quantum progress, rising rate-cut expectations, and AI-crypto breakthroughs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The 2018 dip buyer is up roughly 2,000%, while the 2022 buyer is up approximately 300%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Additionally, Bloomberg\u2019s Eric Balchunas<\/strong> noted Bitcoin has a 100% record of coming back from beatdowns to hit new all-time highs. \u201cMaybe this time is different, but for now it is an indisputable fact.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Originally Posted February 9, 2026 – Bitcoin Drops From $90,000 To $70,000 In 2 Weeks, But ‘Much Of The Bad News Already Priced In’<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has logged its steepest two-week drawdown since June 2022, but Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says \u201cmuch of the bad news is already priced in\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1712,"featured_media":169271,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-238844","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Drops From $90,000 To $70,000 In 2 Weeks, But ‘Much Of The Bad 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