{"id":238772,"date":"2026-02-05T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=238772"},"modified":"2026-02-06T05:35:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T10:35:00","slug":"the-market-mood-is-subtly-worse-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/the-market-mood-is-subtly-worse-today\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market Mood is Subtly Worse Today"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Another day, another set of declines in popular financial assets.&nbsp; Unfortunately, there is nothing new about that.&nbsp; What is different this time \u2013 and I acknowledge that to be among investors\u2019 most dangerous phrases) \u2013 is that today is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/strong-currents-under-a-placid-surface\/\">less about rotation<\/a> than outright selling.&nbsp; Although this morning\u2019s declines in major indices are roughly commensurate with those of recent days, the underlying metrics are not.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I type this before noon ET, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) have recovered from their intraday lows.&nbsp; Both are about -0.9% lower, but SPX has recouped about a third of its worst losses, and NDX has recovered a bit more than half.&nbsp; That is commensurate with the daily trading patterns that have prevailed over the past few days.&nbsp; Stocks sold off, then recovered from their worst levels when dip buyers stepped in.&nbsp; The chart below shows this occurring in five of the prior six sessions, with today following that pattern for a sixth:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SPX, 8-Days, 5-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"966\" height=\"589\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/image-36.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-238776 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/image-36.png 966w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/image-36-700x427.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/image-36-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/image-36-768x468.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 966px) 100vw, 966px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 966px; aspect-ratio: 966\/589;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, however, we see more selling across the board.&nbsp; In the period covered by the above graph, it was not uncommon to see more SPX stocks advancing than declining even as the index sank.&nbsp; Note yesterday\u2019s figure, which showed nearly half of SPX stocks advancing despite a -0.51% selloff:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Net Advances vs. Daily % Change<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"606\" height=\"233\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/image-35.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-238775 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/image-35.png 606w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/image-35-300x115.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 606px; aspect-ratio: 606\/233;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The net advances on the NYSE roughly followed those of the SPX, while Nasdaq, unsurprisingly, leaned more negatively.&nbsp; The recent selloff \u2013 it\u2019s not even close to a correction, by the way \u2013 has been led by technology stocks, particularly in the software sector.&nbsp; Think of how many times you\u2019ve heard the phrase, \u201ctech-heavy Nasdaq.\u201d&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/strong-currents-under-a-placid-surface\/\">Our previous assertion<\/a> that the relatively modest index declines were more the result of turbulent rotation under the market\u2019s surface than broad-based selling was borne out by the data.&nbsp; Today\u2019s advance-decline statistics indicate that situation has changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perceptions about the economy are the main culprit for this morning\u2019s change in psychology.&nbsp; Challenger Job Cuts soared by 117.8% on a year-over-year basis, largely thanks to major layoffs at UPS, Amazon, and Dow Chemical (DOW).&nbsp; Initial Jobless Claims rose to 231,000 from 209,000, well above the 212,000 consensus.&nbsp; Continuing Claims rose from a revised 1,819K to 1,844K, though today\u2019s figure was slightly below the 1,850K consensus.&nbsp; And JOLTS data added to the gloom at 10:00 AM ET.&nbsp; The December figure came in at 6,542K, well below the 7,250K consensus and November\u2019s 6,928K, which itself was revised down from the originally reported 7,146K.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The jobs data gave economic bulls a bit of pause, particularly with the January employment report pushed back from tomorrow to Wednesday.&nbsp; Bond yields fell about 6 basis points across the curve.&nbsp; The move at the short end reflected that Fed Funds futures were now pricing in a full cut for the June FOMC meeting rather than July and a second cut is now solidly priced in for December.&nbsp; The rotation reflected enthusiasm for the economic outlook.&nbsp; Today\u2019s reports dampened that enthusiasm, and hence the rotation turned to outright negativity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet most questions that I continue to receive involve the selloff in software, and more broadly in technology stocks.&nbsp; I believe that to be the result of two key factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The consensus has flipped to software companies being AI victims \u2013 not beneficiaries<\/strong>.\u00a0 Investors were willing to pay premium multiples for software companies that could reap efficiencies from utilizing AI in their coding and final products.\u00a0 That view abruptly reversed, with software companies now perceived as victims of AI\u2019s disruption.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Crowded trades are difficult to exit<\/strong>.\u00a0 Assets that have been granted premium valuations, whether through rational expectations or speculative fervor, are more prone to messy selloffs if perceptions and\/or momentum change.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/stocks-priced-to-perfection-require-um-perfection\/\">We discussed some of this yesterday<\/a>, how highly valued stocks can be much more vulnerable to unpleasant hiccups.&nbsp; Many of the popular software stocks traded with very high P\/Es, reflecting high expectations for future growth.&nbsp; AppLovin (APP), a popular stock, has fallen by about 40% yet still sports a P\/E over 40.&nbsp; Yet some could understandably see the value of a stock that now sports a PEG ration of 0.54.&nbsp; The question, of course, is to what extent analysts\u2019 expectations will be adjusted to match the public\u2019s sudden lack of confidence.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately for other recent speculative darlings, such as silver and cryptocurrencies, there are no earnings expectations.&nbsp; It\u2019s much more about supply and demand, and those dynamics have flipped markedly.&nbsp; Dip buying is very different when there are fewer obvious fundamentals to base one\u2019s buying upon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Another day, another set of declines in popular financial assets.\u00a0 Unfortunately, there is nothing new about that.\u00a0 What is different this time \u2013 and I acknowledge that to be among investors\u2019 most dangerous phrases) \u2013 is that today is less about rotation than outright selling.\u00a0 Although this morning\u2019s declines in major indices are roughly commensurate with those of recent days, the underlying metrics are not.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":238777,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-238772","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Market Mood is Subtly Worse Today | 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US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/the-market-mood-is-subtly-worse-today\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/the-market-mood-is-subtly-worse-today\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/market-mood-featured-img.jpg","datePublished":"2026-02-05T19:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-02-06T10:35:00+00:00","description":"Another day, another set of declines in popular financial assets.\u00a0 Unfortunately, there is nothing new about that.\u00a0 What is different this time \u2013 and I acknowledge that to be among investors\u2019 most dangerous phrases) \u2013 is that today is less about rotation than outright selling.\u00a0 Although this morning\u2019s declines in major indices are roughly commensurate with 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/02\/market-mood-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=238772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238772\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/238777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=238772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=238772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=238772"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=238772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}