{"id":238561,"date":"2026-02-02T12:01:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T17:01:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=238561"},"modified":"2026-02-02T12:45:26","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T17:45:26","slug":"warsh-or-peace-markets-decode-the-fed-nomination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/warsh-or-peace-markets-decode-the-fed-nomination\/","title":{"rendered":"Warsh or Peace? Markets Decode the Fed Nomination"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In this episode of the IBKR Podcast, Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, and Jose Torres, Senior Economist, break down the market reaction to Kevin Warsh\u2019s Fed nomination. They examine whether Warsh is a policy hawk, a political pragmatist, or something in between, and what his potential influence means for interest rates and investor expectations heading into the second half of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Note: We taped this podcast on Monday, February 2nd, around 10 AM ET. \u00a0Shortly after noon ET,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-02\/january-jobs-report-will-be-delayed-due-to-shutdown-bls-says?srnd=homepage-americas\"> we learned<\/a> that the partial government shutdown will delay the release of the January employment report, originally scheduled for Friday, February 6th.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-349\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 349<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"h-\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Warsh or Peace? Markets Decode the Fed Nomination\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=vj5rp-1a359b4-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to the latest edition of the IBKR Economics\u00a0Podcast. Our usual host, Andrew Wilkinson, is out today, so, I&#8217;ll be taking over. I&#8217;m Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, and I&#8217;m joined today as usual by my colleague and friend, Jose Torres, our Senior Economist. Hi Jose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hi\u00a0Steve. Great to be here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-0\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Great to see you. Well, there&#8217;s a\u00a0500-pound\u00a0gorilla in the room, and that is the Kevin Warsh nomination from Friday. It&#8217;s amazing the range of opinions that\u00a0there are out there.Is he a hawk? Is he a dove? Is he a hawk in dove&#8217;s clothing? Is he a dove in hawk&#8217;s clothing? Is he just a political animal? I really would like your opinions on this, please.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-0\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, Steve, it&#8217;s definitely been confusing, especially with the trading, but I think on balance, the highest probability nominee that would stand up\u00a0to a commander in chief that wants to pursue overly loose policy would be Kevin Warsh, and that&#8217;s why we&#8217;re seeing a stronger dollar. We&#8217;re seeing sell offs in precious metals. Historically, Steve,\u00a0Warsh is a hot one of the classic Republicans as it\u00a0relates to monetary policy. \u00a0He prefers higher real rates. He prefers a\u00a0Federal\u00a0Reserve that doesn&#8217;t have an overly large balance sheet that interferes with the natural market forces of supply and demand in the treasury complex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And of course, Steve, that&#8217;s not necessarily what President Trump wants. &nbsp;However, leading up to the nomination&nbsp;&#8212;&nbsp;and here&#8217;s where the confusion increases&nbsp;significantly&nbsp;&#8212; leading up to the nomination, Kevin Warsh&nbsp;talked about wanting to pursue a policy with lower rates and he delivered&nbsp;some&nbsp;talking points that were essentially music to the ears of the&nbsp;President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So that&#8217;s really where all the confusion is coming from and where the wide range of comments that different experts are making, throughout the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-1\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I mean, that&#8217;s\u00a0fair grounds for confusion though. I mean, I remember during, during his term as\u00a0Governor, he was actually not in favor of Bernanke&#8217;s helicopter money\u00a0and was concerned about\u00a0lowering\u00a0rates too much being an inflationary pressure, despite the fact that actually the problem at the time was deflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&nbsp;is, I think,&nbsp;a fair question to ask:&nbsp;Has he changed his stripes or is&nbsp;it&nbsp;just&nbsp;that&nbsp;he knows that he&#8217;s got&nbsp;to, at least in the short term, appease an audience of one. Do you feel that&nbsp;some of&nbsp;the criticism or&nbsp;some of&nbsp;the questioning is justified?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-1\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think so, definitely. \u00a0But another important dynamic is that so many years have passed since that&#8217;s roughly 15, 16 years ago.\u00a0So,\u00a0there is an allowance for economists and for\u00a0Fed officials to change their opinions, as years go by.\u00a0Obviously,\u00a0our debt numbers are way higher. The composition of our economy is much different with, for example, the manufacturing and real estate sectors continuing to suffer under restrictive financial conditions for those sectors, but not necessarily for the broader economy as it relates to consumer spending or labor markets or artificial intelligence investment or for the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, those ideas and those standpoints have changed over time, so it&#8217;ll be interesting to see what happens. Wall Street&#8217;s still expecting roughly around two cuts into year end, starting in June and one probably around September or November.&nbsp;So,&nbsp;we&#8217;ll see what happens. Of course, crude oil prices have risen significantly.&nbsp;&nbsp;Housing is a disinflationary force, so we&#8217;ll see what kind of inflation numbers we get in the next few months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-2\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You actually\u00a0channeled Keynes in there with,\u00a0\u201cWhat do you do,\u00a0madam, when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?\u201d\u00a0Or whatever. I think\u00a0that that&#8217;s been the classic ever since. But you did actually\u00a0hit on one of the things that I took away from Powell&#8217;s press conference.\u00a0I mean at this point, a lame duck,\u00a0we know this, but his comment, it&#8217;s something I&#8217;ve been thinking for some time, which is\u00a0that\u00a0we&#8217;re around neutral, we&#8217;re at the higher end of neutral, but there&#8217;s nothing from the asset markets that seems\u00a0to imply that we&#8217;re restrictive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do you feel that&nbsp;Warsh has that viewpoint,&nbsp;or do you feel that even if the committee has that viewpoint, he can get them around? Powell was also very clear to say that the majority of the committee was in no mood to cut rates right now. You&#8217;ve got two dissents. One was Stephen Miran&nbsp;who we knew was going to dissent and Chris Waller&nbsp;did what&nbsp;I interpreted&nbsp;as his last ditch effort to stay relevant in the&nbsp;\u201cApprentice Fed Edition.\u201d&nbsp;But do you think that Warsh can really move the needle in terms of the thinking of the other committee members&nbsp;&#8217;cause it he&#8217;s one of, he is the most important voice in a room full of other smart people?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-2\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, so you know, the GOP talking point as it relates to monetary policy recently has been that the productivity enhancements that artificial intelligence is bringing,\u00a0and is going to continue to deliver,\u00a0provides a supply side disinflationary effect. While also the immigration restriction measures that President Trump has pursued\u00a0also really weigh\u00a0on housing both via prices and rents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And with that component, comprising 45%, roughly,&nbsp;of the consumer price index,&nbsp;those two factors could very well land us in the low twos of inflation. If you look at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/indicators-and-data\/inflation-nowcasting\">the Cleveland Fed\u2019s Inflation Nowcasting<\/a>, we&#8217;re already kind of at 2.3%, 2.4% for last month. So,&nbsp;those numbers could start helping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think that if he starts to&nbsp;focus on those two dynamics and those conversations,he could win over the committee and could maybe get that third interest rate cut that the doves would&nbsp;want to&nbsp;see this year and then start getting fed funds, roughly in the high twos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-3\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, that doesn&#8217;t really\u00a0gibe\u00a0with what we saw this\u00a0week,certainly in the dollar rising and metals crashing. Let me be very clear:\u00a0a\u00a0lot ofpeople\u00a0are\u00a0saying,\u00a0\u201cOh, they, they crashed because of\u00a0Warsh.\u201d\u00a0They didn&#8217;t really, they were already on a\u00a0downspin before the nomination was announced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They were already getting whacked overnight before, I think it was around seven o&#8217;clock in the&nbsp;morning&nbsp;that we learned it was gonna be&nbsp;Warsh. So, I do take that with a grain of salt,&nbsp;but&nbsp;do you feel there&#8217;s any real economic message in the moves that we&#8217;ve had?&nbsp;Obviously,&nbsp;oil ran up largely because of concerns about Iran.&nbsp;&nbsp;It didn&#8217;t really move on the&nbsp;Venezuela news. but it did move&nbsp;on&nbsp;the saber rattling in Iran. &nbsp;It&nbsp;has&nbsp;made a difference, but&nbsp;that&#8217;s come off. But we&#8217;re seeing these&nbsp;big&nbsp;run ups&nbsp;and now the big declines, gold, silver,&nbsp;copper&nbsp;and&nbsp;aluminum had&nbsp;the run ups to&nbsp;some&nbsp;extent, not to the same degree,&nbsp;they&#8217;re coming off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin of course, got whacked over the weekend, but&nbsp;that&#8217;s sort of a world of its own. Do you see any economic message coming out of these runups&nbsp;and pullbacks, or do you just feel that&#8217;s market noise and let the markets deal with them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-3\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I do see an economic message on the way up. There\u00a0are\u00a0someglimpses of the\u00a0\u201cSell America\u201d\u00a0trade wanting to diversify into other\u00a0currencies, other bonds,\u00a0as well as other metals because when you consider other currencies and other fixed income instruments, they&#8217;re also controlled by governments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So,&nbsp;the same part of the same bid that drove Bitcoin&nbsp;higher over the years,&nbsp;folks wanting to hedge away from fiat money and&nbsp;put&nbsp;more into an ecosystem that governments can&#8217;t control. I think that those same bids more from an institutional audience drove the run-ups in gold and silver.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, why don&#8217;t I see an economic message on the crash lower?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because these assets, these metals, they don&#8217;t yield anything.&nbsp;So,&nbsp;it&#8217;s hard,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you can&#8217;t really price them off of fundamentals like earnings. So,&nbsp;it&#8217;s hard to really&nbsp;see&nbsp;where the&nbsp;risk-free&nbsp;rate is and how far&nbsp;gold and silver can&nbsp;run. We can do that dynamic on equities and say,&nbsp;\u201cYou know what\u201d&nbsp;&#8212;&nbsp;and of course equities are hardly a sober mechanism&nbsp;&#8212;&nbsp;but we can say,&nbsp;\u201cYou know what?&nbsp;&nbsp;Equities are probably not gonna go up 30%&nbsp;this year because of where the 10-year is and what the recent years have done.\u201d&nbsp;So,&nbsp;a lot of&nbsp;gains&nbsp;are&nbsp;built in, but with gold and&nbsp;silver&nbsp;we really lack that kind of comparison with the risk-free rate.&nbsp;So,&nbsp;it&#8217;s really all speculation, even though it&#8217;s&nbsp;a lot of&nbsp;institutions buying, it&#8217;s&nbsp;a lot ofcentral banks buying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s still all speculation in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-4\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I would\u00a0debate\u00a0you on this, but I don&#8217;t disagree. I mean, I think, that\u00a0there were the fundamental reasons on, in my theory, I would skew it a little bit from a trading dynamic and say, I think it was as central banks started to buy gold and de-dollarize some of their reserves, it was around the same time that the Bitcoin trade was petering out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I think&nbsp;a lot of&nbsp;your momentum investors moved from Bitcoin&nbsp;into gold and then into&nbsp;silver,&nbsp;being sort of the easier, cheaper one to trade. And that became&nbsp;a parabolic mania in and of itself. Gold&nbsp;was actually not parabolic until pretty much three, four weeks ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;Silver&#8217;s been parabolic for months. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Parabolic trades,&nbsp;end in a nasty, unpredictable way. I&#8217;ll quibble with you very slightly&nbsp;on the causation. I mean, we generally agree. I think it&#8217;s just slight margin, but&nbsp;I have no disagreement with you on the fact that there is no lasting economic message from this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I guess finally, from an economics point of view we&#8217;ve got jobs numbers on Friday. What are you looking for&nbsp;in&nbsp;that key indicator?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-4\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I think that the\u00a0Unemployment\u00a0Rate stays flat. I think wage pressures are gonna stay pretty strong. They&#8217;re gonna grow 0.3% month over month. And I think on the yearly,\u00a0that&#8217;ll take our yearly number\u00a0on wages down to 3.6% annualized just\u00a0to the unfavorable base effects that were particularly high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But for the overall number, I&#8217;m expecting a modest beat. Expectations&nbsp;are&nbsp;at 70,000, I think we&#8217;re gonna get a number around 90,000. Remember folks with the immigration restrictions&nbsp;and with the challenging demographics that we have, it&#8217;s gonna be hard to get those numbers above&nbsp;100,000, like what we&#8217;ve been getting in previous years post COVID.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So,&nbsp;we&#8217;re in this new normal where job games will be between 20,000 and 90,000 for the most part, even as we expand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-5\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well,\u00a0thank you,\u00a0Jose,\u00a0for very much\u00a0for that. And I guess obviously to me jobs numbers are always important because\u00a0when you think about the Fed dual mandate, you get price data every day. We just have to look at your\u00a0screen,\u00a0and you have price data. You don&#8217;t, we don&#8217;t get, as we, we don&#8217;t get as\u00a0much\u00a0jobs data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although it&#8217;s interesting because I believe it was, I forget which one it was. I think it was Dr. Miran, but I&#8217;m not sure exactly,&nbsp;who said&nbsp;that we actually&nbsp;have more clarity on the jobs data than they do on price data. Can you just&nbsp;explain, does that make sense to you, since we don&#8217;t get as&nbsp;many&nbsp;readings on labor, on the labor economy as we do on prices, which again,&nbsp;are continuous?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-5\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I mean, I think I&#8217;m more in the middle. I think that we have real time measures of inflation. Of course, that side of the aisle\u00a0has\u00a0been pointing to this new measure called\u00a0Truflation, Steve, I don&#8217;t know if you&#8217;ve seen it on Twitter and\u00a0X\u00a0and it&#8217;s\u00a0trending really\u00a0a lot\u00a0lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So,&nbsp;we have that real time price measure. And then we also have, we have Indeed&#8217;s job openings, but a more comprehensive&nbsp;number that&#8217;s been now added to our economic&nbsp;calendar. &nbsp;On weeks where the&nbsp;ADP monthly report isn&#8217;t due, you have every Tuesday you have an&nbsp;ADP weekly number on payrolls, that with the claims and then with&nbsp;ADP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As economists we&#8217;re kind of shifting,&nbsp;and strategists like yourself as well, we&#8217;re kind of shifting into like&nbsp;not focusing as much on one data or two data&nbsp;points but&nbsp;more looking at the buffet of data and kind of just getting clues from each dish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-6\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes. I did know that the\u00a0ADP was coming weekly. I do forget about it. \u00a0It&#8217;s not in my mindset to the same degree that\u00a0some of\u00a0the others are. And one of the things I&#8217;ve always said was, people say, oh,\u00a0ADP is a lousy indicator of the bigger employment number. And\u00a0we don&#8217;t have enough time to, to fully debate that, and I don&#8217;t know\u00a0if\u00a0I have all the economic data\u00a0to, to refute or agree with it. But I&#8217;ve always felt that\u00a0ADP\u00a0is\u00a0good on direction over time. It&#8217;s not, it may not necessarily be good week-to-week because quite frankly they have a subset of large companies, but not necessarily as good of a reach into the small economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just in like the short time we have left, does that comment make any sense? Or you could just tell me if I&#8217;m talking out my talking out my\u2026&nbsp;talking out the wrong way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-6\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>No,\u00a0I think I think part of the reason why I&#8217;m offering a little more weight to\u00a0ADP these days, Steve, because the response rates in the government have just been really terrible. These are voluntary surveys.\u00a0I wrote on Traders Insight back in 2023 roughly, that I thought that these responses\u00a0to these government surveys should be mandatory because they filter through monetary policy decisions as well as market impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I know obviously it&#8217;s the US and we were built on principles of freedom and ability to choose, but I think that those dynamics should be bucketed, sort of how taxes are, you must pay your taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-7\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>On that note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-7\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, sorry, Steve. Just\u00a0on ADP\u00a0really\u00a0quick. They have\u00a0good data. They don&#8217;t necessarily depend on responses, they just have the data there and it&#8217;s\u00a0a pretty large sample size, so I&#8217;ve been adding\u00a0some\u00a0weight to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-8\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Got it. On that note,\u00a0we&#8217;re gonna have to call it because\u00a0we try to keep these tight and limited. Thank you so much to my colleague, Jose Torres. I&#8217;ve\u00a0been your host today on\u00a0an\u00a0impromptu\u00a0basis,\u00a0Steve Sosnick. And thank you very much for listening. Obviously,\u00a0you know where to find IBKR Podcasts\u00a0if you&#8217;re listening to this, but if you don&#8217;t normally subscribe, please do through the podcast channel of your choice and we look forward to talking to you again soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks everybody.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this episode of the IBKR Podcast, Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, and Jose Torres, Senior Economist, break down the market reaction to Kevin Warsh\u2019s Fed nomination. 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Markets Decode the Fed Nomination<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this episode of the IBKR Podcast, Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, and Jose Torres, Senior Economist, break down the market...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238561\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Warsh or Peace? Markets Decode the Fed Nomination | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this episode of the IBKR Podcast, Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, and Jose Torres, Senior Economist, break down the market reaction to Kevin Warsh\u2019s Fed nomination. 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