{"id":238483,"date":"2026-01-30T12:57:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T17:57:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=238483"},"modified":"2026-02-02T03:40:29","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T08:40:29","slug":"a-warsh-sale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-warsh-sale\/","title":{"rendered":"A Warsh Sale?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>There\u2019s nothing like an early news blast to start a trader\u2019s day.&nbsp; For those of us in the eastern US, we learned last night that the President would be nominating a new Federal Reserve Chair this morning, and around 7 AM ET we learned that it would be Kevin Warsh.&nbsp; Despite some late speculation about Blackrock\u2019s Rick Rieder, we ended up with one of the \u201ctwo Kevins\u201d whose names had been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/one-comment-changes-the-odds-bigly\/\">bandied about for months<\/a>. Because Warsh is a known quantity to markets, their initial reactions are relatively muted.<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I apologize for the bullet point format of today\u2019s piece, rather than the usual prose.&nbsp;&nbsp; The magnitude and timing of the announcement caused me to spend a good portion of this morning responding to questions about it, so I needed to organize my thoughts more quickly than usual.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for this morning\u2019s reaction to the Warsh nomination:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We wound up with one of the \u201ctwo Kevins\u201d after all.\u00a0 Sure, there was some late movement to Rieder, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller did his best to keep his name in the ring with this week\u2019s dissent, but we ended up pretty much where we started.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While he\u2019s well known to the Fed and Wall Street (and a son-in-law of one of Trump\u2019s friends), Kevin Warsh is better known for his inflation concerns during his term as Fed Governor from February 2006 to March 2011 than as a constant advocate for lower rates.\u00a0 That makes him a bit of a curious pick, considering that the President has made it clear that he wants a Fed Chair who is willing to advocate for lower rates.\u00a0 \u00a0If he maintains his vigilance about inflation, it should assuage those who are concerned about threats to Fed independence.\u00a0 If it turns out that his resistance to rate cuts during the Global Financial Crisis was more about politics than inflation concern, that could turn problematic.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hence the relatively muted responses in key market indicators:<ul><li>Fed Funds futures are pricing in a full cut for July (plus a 19% chance of more) and another for December.\u00a0 Versus Wednesday, those are up from a full cut in July (+7% chance of more) and an 88% chance for another by December.\u00a0 Not a big move.<\/li><\/ul><ul><li>10-year and 30-year yields are up by 1 and 2 bp respectively.\u00a0 That reflects only a modest incremental concern about inflation (they didn\u2019t really move after the higher PPI print, by the way).<\/li><\/ul><ul><li>The dollar is modestly higher, meaning that foreigners are OK with the pick for now.<\/li><\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stocks are a bit lower (SPX -0.4%, NDX -0.8% just before noon ET), as they were during most of the pre-market and early trading.\u00a0 There was the usual attempted bump on the open, but we\u2019re now back roughly to the lowest pre-market levels.\u00a0 Bear in mind that:<ul><li>Today is month-end, so window dressing is not out of the question.<\/li><\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Yesterday afternoon was one of the more spectacular \u201cbuy the dip\u201d episodes that we\u2019ve seen in a while.\u00a0 Thus, we can\u2019t rule out a bit of volatility today.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bottom line: assuming that Senator Tillis resumes approving nominees after a successful resolution of the criminal probes into Chair Powell, Warsh should be approved relatively easily, and markets would be fine with that.\u00a0 During Wednesday\u2019s press conference, Powell told us that the committee is broadly in favor of no action right now, which could be interpreted as that one person does not dictate policy at the FOMC.\u00a0 It\u2019s hard to imagine Warsh being able to change policy too abruptly even if he does turn out to be politically motivated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve also been fielding several questions about today\u2019s double-digit percentage plunges in precious metals:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>They were already headed lower before the Warsh announcement.\u00a0 It\u2019s not about him.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They reflect the instability of parabolic moves and the unpredictability of how they end.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The moves in precious metals are related to the recent underperformance of bitcoin.\u00a0 My comment, \u201cbitcoin is now for normies,\u201d applies.\u00a0 The post-election run-up in crypto was powered not by \u201cHODL\u2019ers,\u201d but by average investors \u2013 many of whom were not 20- and 30-somethings, but closer to retirement \u2013 who used ETFs to hop onto the momentum.\u00a0 When the momentum faded, they moved to metals.\u00a0 We\u2019re seeing the logical outcome of that wild rotation.\u00a0 (By the way, on a 1-year basis, gold is smoking bitcoin.\u00a0 On a 2-year basis, the performance is quite similar.\u00a0 Silver is, of course, in an orbit all its own.)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I (presciently) <a href=\"https:\/\/nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Furldefense.com%2Fv3%2F__https%3A%2Fwww.interactivebrokers.com%2Fcampus%2Ftraders-insight%2Fibkr-market-insights%2Ffed-snoozer-tech-and-gold-loser%2F__%3B!!HqJSLGM!pPdxBK2mwEAVEFo8XoqlirbF9nkgMKnvfvDW4tX73bOr6BKo1UzL8aVnQlzDtdXtC66TUMsmaY-LQZmp32pQ2dXTe4afCrE%24&amp;data=05%7C02%7Cssosnick%40interactivebrokers.com%7C961646a8c1714eb7a11908de60163f3b%7C7abd04ef837d48e69ba869d84f65a110%7C0%7C0%7C639053845860492962%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=TTARcqe0MuxVnHyWE%2B%2FQOybsdu4NsrnFKfL1z0zfdGQ%3D&amp;reserved=0\">wrote about this yesterday<\/a>:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u2026<\/em> <em>some of the craziest moves occurred in decorrelating hedges that have turned into highly speculative darlings.&nbsp; Bitcoin broke through support at $87,500 and plunged quickly to $85,000.&nbsp;Most notably, gold and silver \u2026 each had swings exceeding 10% this morning.&nbsp; The intraday moves in gold have been increasing markedly as its upswing has morphed from steeply linear to parabolic.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>There are two things to keep in mind about the recent volatility in precious metals:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>Parabolic moves are inherently unstable.\u00a0 They are caused by a powerful combination of speculative fervor and\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Furldefense.com%2Fv3%2F__https%3A%2Fwww.interactivebrokers.com%2Fcampus%2Ftraders-insight%2Fsecurities%2Fstocks%2Fparabolic-charts-mean-someone-is-in-pain%2F%3Fquery%3Dparabolic%26query_id%3DlGtMcuPASG-jDW6XR93hwA%26index%3Dengine-name-placeholder%26user_token%3DlGtMcuPASG-jDW6XR93hwA__%3B!!HqJSLGM!pPdxBK2mwEAVEFo8XoqlirbF9nkgMKnvfvDW4tX73bOr6BKo1UzL8aVnQlzDtdXtC66TUMsmaY-LQZmp32pQ2dXTuKw9n1k%24&amp;data=05%7C02%7Cssosnick%40interactivebrokers.com%7C961646a8c1714eb7a11908de60163f3b%7C7abd04ef837d48e69ba869d84f65a110%7C0%7C0%7C639053845860540281%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=zmBhN70ctDaU%2F13xlxXLoT1Z1Xdm5c6tbNpPoDWeDkA%3D&amp;reserved=0\"><strong><em>counterparty pain<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em>.\u00a0 At some point, those dynamics resolve themselves, often with major consequences for the last buyers.\u00a0 The trick, of course, is figuring out when the music is about to stop.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Market volatility tends to increase around turning points.\u00a0 The increasingly huge moves in these commodities may mean that the musicians are preparing to take a rest.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> While today\u2019s title is a play on a market term known as \u201cthe wash sale rule,\u201d it has nothing to do with the rule itself.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/wash-sales\/?query=wash%20sale%20rule&amp;query_id=8p82igNeR96DQsEXVu2sBA&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=8p82igNeR96DQsEXVu2sBA\">IBKR Campus offers<\/a> an explanation that leads with<em>: The US Internal Revenue Service defines a wash sale as \u201ca sale of stock or securities at a loss within 30 days before or after you buy or acquire in a fully taxable trade, or acquire a contract or option to buy, substantially identical stock or securities.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s nothing like an early news blast to start a trader\u2019s day.\u00a0 For those of us in the eastern US, we learned last night that the President would be nominating a new Federal Reserve Chair this morning, and around 7 AM ET we learned that it would be Kevin Warsh.\u00a0 Despite some late speculation about Blackrock\u2019s Rick Rieder, we ended up with one of the \u201ctwo Kevins\u201d whose names had been bandied about for months. Because Warsh is a known quantity to markets, their initial reactions are relatively muted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":238489,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-238483","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Warsh Sale? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There\u2019s nothing like an early news blast to start a trader\u2019s day.\u00a0 For those of us in the eastern US, we learned last night that the President...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238483\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Warsh Sale? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s nothing like an early news blast to start a trader\u2019s day.\u00a0 For those of us in the eastern US, we learned last night that the President would be nominating a new Federal Reserve Chair this morning, and around 7 AM ET we learned that it would be Kevin Warsh.\u00a0 Despite some late speculation about Blackrock\u2019s Rick Rieder, we ended up with one of the \u201ctwo Kevins\u201d whose names had been bandied about for months. 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