{"id":238381,"date":"2026-01-29T13:06:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T18:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=238381"},"modified":"2026-01-29T17:56:50","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T22:56:50","slug":"wallers-dissent-yesterday-doubled-his-odds-to-18-before-retreating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/wallers-dissent-yesterday-doubled-his-odds-to-18-before-retreating\/","title":{"rendered":"Waller\u2019s Dissent Yesterday Doubled His Odds to 18% Before Retreating: Jan. 29, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Fed Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s decision to formally dissent against the central bank\u2019s ruling to keep interest rates unchanged yesterday improved his odds of being nominated as chair. Indeed, his chances doubled from a low of 9% on Wednesday, Jan 28 to a high of 18% today, before paring that advance and standing at around 12%<\/a> in the early afternoon. His likelihood of being chosen to the top spot sat in the basement on Saturday, Jan. 24, meanwhile, with his prospects at only 4%. Colleague Stephen Miran also disagreed with the hold verdict and favored a reduction of the same 25-basis point magnitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurozone Hasn\u2019t Exceeded 0.4% GDP Growth for 13 Quarters<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Eurozone\u2019s Gross Domestic Product result hasn\u2019t exceeded 0.4% for 13 consecutive quarters and none of the 40 forecasters in the Reuters monthly poll thinks it will happen in tomorrow morning\u2019s report either. Indeed, the median estimate stands at 0.2%, against the backdrop of a minimum and maximum of 0.1% and 0.4%. The 0.4%<\/a> \u201cNo\u201d is undervalued at $0.78 in my opinion when considering the narrow path that exists for receiving a number of 0.5% or higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurozone Unemployment Near Fair Value Though<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Eurozone\u2019s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.3% although a few of the surveyed economists penciled in a climb to 6.4%. Against that backdrop though, there\u2019s still a decent chance of getting a lower figure despite none of the forecasters estimating a 6.2% level. The IBKR ForecastTrader, meanwhile, think there\u2019s a 30% probability of an outcome arriving at 6.2%<\/a> or under. A jump above 6.4%<\/a> is relatively out of the cards, however, and that \u201cNo\u201d is priced at $0.90 as a result but should be closer to $0.96 since a 0.2% monthly increase is highly unlikely and historically rare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Higher Oil Prices Lead to Heavier Baltic Dry<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The recent increase in the Baltic Dry Index is unlikely to reverse drastically to 1,825 or under because oil prices are up 4% today. The figure is poised to rise from this morning’s level of 2,016, and the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> for a number above 1,825 in tomorrow\u2019s reading is undervalued at $0.88 in my opinion as it should be closer to $0.96.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SORA Is Volatile<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) for tomorrow is expected to come in at or under 1.3%<\/a> with a 64% degree of certainty, although the benchmark has been highly volatile lately. Indeed, the last five<\/p>\n\n\n\n

days of readings have fluctuated significantly, coming in at 1.17%, 1.37%, 1.45%, 1.21% and 1.31% amidst an average of 1.3%. But the ten-day mean is at 1.19%, however.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 29, 2026.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s decision to formally dissent against the central bank\u2019s ruling to keep interest rates unchanged yesterday improved his odds of being nominated as chair. 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/federal-reserve-system-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=238381"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238381\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/184479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=238381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=238381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=238381"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=238381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}