{"id":238242,"date":"2026-01-28T12:46:25","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T17:46:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=238242"},"modified":"2026-01-28T17:55:43","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T22:55:43","slug":"rick-rieder-for-fed-chair-is-undervalued-at-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/rick-rieder-for-fed-chair-is-undervalued-at-20\/","title":{"rendered":"Rick Rieder for Fed Chair Is Undervalued at 20%: Jan. 28, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Arbitrage opportunities can present themselves when different markets offer divergent prices for potential outcomes of certain events. In the case of BlackRock executive Rick Rieder being nominated as Fed Chair, distinct venues offer variable probabilities as to his chances of President Trump choosing him for the position. Against this backdrop, the ForecastTrader platform has former central bank Governor Kevin Warsh in the lead at 30%<\/a> while Rieder is at an undervalued 20%<\/a>, in my opinion. The only other candidate with a double-digit possibility is current Governor Christopher Waller who is at 10%<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Claims Have Been Low Lately<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The last four weeks of initial unemployment claims have featured figures of 200k, 207k, 199k and 200k, substantially beneath the 52-week average of 225k. Filings are likely to drift north toward the annual mean once the December and January holiday effects are behind us as is typical in the post-pandemic era, however, participants price a figure below 210k<\/a> in tomorrow\u2019s print with a 59% degree of certainty. Meanwhile, we\u2019ve only failed to exceed 190k one time in the past six years and in just 33 occurrences in the 3,081 observations going all the way back to 1967. Indeed, the 98.93% historical probability of getting a number above 190k make the \u201cYeses\u201d at 180k and 190k especially compelling. Those are undervalued in my opinion and are going for $0.94 and $0.84.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

WEI \u201cNo\u201d Undervalued at 2.4%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has failed to come in north of 2.4% in 12 of the past 14 weeks, which features an average reading of 2.23%. Against that backdrop, the \u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at 2.4% appears to have an attractive risk-reward dynamic in my view since its going for $0.57 and should be priced closer to $0.78.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 28, 2026.<\/em>\u00a0Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arbitrage opportunities can present themselves when different markets offer divergent prices for potential outcomes of certain events.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":181906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[446],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-238242","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-federal-reserve","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRick Rieder for Fed Chair Is Undervalued at 20%: Jan. 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