{"id":237780,"date":"2026-01-26T12:41:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T17:41:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237780"},"modified":"2026-01-26T12:53:27","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T17:53:27","slug":"is-silver-ready-to-outrun-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-silver-ready-to-outrun-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Silver Ready to Outrun Gold?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Jeff Praissman is joined by Will Rhind of GraniteShares to break down the evolving relationship between gold and silver, and why silver may be positioned to outperform in the current macro environment. From industrial demand and supply deficits to real rates, dollar weakness, and geopolitical risk, they explore whether silver\u2019s long-awaited catch-up trade is finally underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Is Silver Ready to Outrun Gold?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=z2sws-1a2bf08-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 345<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hi everyone, this is Jeff Praissman with the&nbsp;<em>Interactive Brokers Podcast<\/em>.&nbsp;It\u2019s&nbsp;my pleasure to welcome to the podcast studio Will Rhind from&nbsp;GraniteShares. Hey,&nbsp;Will\u2014how are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Good, thanks, Jeff. Thanks so much for having me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-0\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, it\u2019s my pleasure to have you in, and I\u2019m really excited&nbsp;for&nbsp;this topic.&nbsp;Let\u2019s&nbsp;start with some fundamentals. Gold has been dominating globally in U.S. dollars, which creates this kind of inverse relationship. Will, could you walk us through exactly how that price mechanic works in practice?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-0\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, sure. So gold, as you say, is denominated in U.S. dollars, and&nbsp;that\u2019s&nbsp;the global gold price. Although gold clearly is a universal asset, meaning that it trades wherever it is in the world&nbsp;in&nbsp;a local price as well.&nbsp;So&nbsp;we always think about the gold price being a U.S. dollar price, and that is the official price for that. And so, depending on whether&nbsp;gold\u2019s&nbsp;going up or down, it makes it cheaper or more expensive for people around the world who are not on the dollar to buy it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-1\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, so I was&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;ask\u2014if&nbsp;I\u2019m&nbsp;a buyer in Europe or Asia, and&nbsp;let\u2019s&nbsp;just say the U.S. dollar weakens by 10%, what&nbsp;actually has&nbsp;to happen for that to make gold more attractive? Is it instant, or is it sort of more of a slower transfer between that currency rate?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-1\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I mean, I suppose it depends on who the buyer is. Gold is something that is not just about investors and traders\u2014gold has real-world applications. Most&nbsp;notably, for example, if you are a jewelry buyer, then&nbsp;you\u2019ll&nbsp;be&nbsp;very sensitive&nbsp;to the price.&nbsp;So&nbsp;if you are a jeweler in Europe or in Asia,&nbsp;you\u2019ll&nbsp;be&nbsp;very sensitive&nbsp;to the price of gold. And&nbsp;so&nbsp;when that price weakens, you may choose to act on that&nbsp;immediately, versus anybody else&nbsp;who\u2019s&nbsp;maybe an&nbsp;investor, et cetera, who can take a view as to whether&nbsp;that\u2019s&nbsp;the right price or not. But&nbsp;yeah, the price of gold will affect different buyers and consumers around the world for&nbsp;different reasons.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-2\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Got it.&nbsp;And there have been some pretty big examples of this inverse relationship in the past.&nbsp;A couple that come to mind are the Bretton Woods era and also the early 2000s.&nbsp;But of course, like everything else, there are always exceptions, right\u2014when both rose together. Both gold and the dollar rose together during systemic stress. If&nbsp;we\u2019re&nbsp;looking at today\u2019s environment\u2014the U.S. elevated deficits, changing interest rate differentials, and increased central bank buying\u2014which historical period does this most closely resemble in your mind? And what makes this time&nbsp;different, if&nbsp;anything?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-2\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, so gold has\u2014over the longer term\u2014its strongest relationship really is against the dollar. Gold moves inversely to the dollar over\u00a0long periods\u00a0of time, meaning that as the gold price typically rises, the dollar falls, and vice versa. That relationship is interrupted from time to time, typically in periods of economic stress, like the 2008\u00a0financial crisis, for example, where you can have a situation where the dollar is rising at the same time as gold.\u00a0I think if we think about the period in history that closely resembles this, we can look at it from a few different angles.\u00a0First of all,\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0seen\u00a0a really unbelievable\u00a0return from gold last year\u20142025. And this gold rally has been going on for some years. But the period that mirrors this closest in terms of returns in the gold market would be the 1970s, where in 1979, as an example, gold posted a 126% gain, which was incredibly significant at that point.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;from a return perspective, it looks and feels a lot like the rally that we saw in the 1970s. But&nbsp;I think there&nbsp;are some other interesting things that resemble the 1970s period as well in terms of what&nbsp;we\u2019re&nbsp;seeing today. In the 1970s, particularly in the period when gold was rallying\u2014which was the end of the seventies, peaking obviously in 1980\u2014we had some of the same factors that&nbsp;we\u2019re&nbsp;dealing with right now.&nbsp;So&nbsp;we had oil crises, we had Middle East conflicts, we had stagflation, and we had safe-haven buying into gold.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All of which&nbsp;we\u2019re&nbsp;seeing today\u2014ironically: U.S.-Iran tensions, China resource rivalry, things like this. The other thing, of course, is inflation and monetary policies.&nbsp;So&nbsp;we had inflation concerns in the seventies, just like we do today. We now have&nbsp;loosening&nbsp;fiscal and monetary policies, which are weakening the dollar\u2014just like, again, in the seventies. And so this idea of geopolitical and economic turmoil, inflation and monetary policy, and then dollar weakness and diversification\u2014so all of that kind of put together\u2014it feels like a lot of those things which propelled gold to all-time highs in the 1970s are kind of similar to what we\u2019re seeing today.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-3\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;it\u2019s&nbsp;really like that old expression\u2014the more things change, the more they stay the same.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-3\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, exactly.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-4\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019d&nbsp;like to bring this to the investor level.&nbsp;So&nbsp;let\u2019s&nbsp;just say&nbsp;someone\u2019s&nbsp;convinced we\u2019re entering a sustained period of dollar weakness. What role should physically backed gold products play in their diversified portfolio? And&nbsp;maybe more&nbsp;importantly, how should investors think about&nbsp;the timing? Should they wait for confirmation of dollar weakness, or is gold more effective as a preemptive hedge against currency erosion?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-4\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think it comes back to how you think about the concept of dollar weakness and whether, in the context of a portfolio, you think of it as a purchasing power problem, or it\u2019s actually not something that you\u2019re too worried about because you\u2019re dollar-denominated. Therefore, a weakening dollar\u2014if&nbsp;you\u2019re&nbsp;being paid in&nbsp;dollars, if&nbsp;you\u2019re&nbsp;investing in dollars\u2014doesn\u2019t&nbsp;necessarily affect you to that degree.&nbsp;So&nbsp;I think&nbsp;it\u2019s&nbsp;kind of a&nbsp;combination, but most people view it as an erosion of purchasing power. And how that translates&nbsp;in&nbsp;a portfolio is that you want to make money or try to profit from the dollar weakening. And one way to do that is to buy gold. And because we talked about that historical relationship between gold and the dollar, typically over the longer run, in periods where the dollar is weakening, gold prices are rising.&nbsp;So&nbsp;there\u2019s&nbsp;a way that by owning gold in a portfolio, you can effectively profit from that weakening dollar.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-5\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And\u00a0I\u2019d\u00a0like to shift to the recent market action. Like you said, gold\u2019s been up last year\u2014gold was huge\u2014but it also surged again after the recent jobs report showed unemployment rising to multi-year highs, with investors\u00a0immediately\u00a0pricing in Fed rate cuts as well. But\u00a0here\u2019s\u00a0what\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0curious about: how direct is that connection really? When traders see a weak number, are they buying gold because they\u00a0anticipate\u00a0lower\u00a0rates\u00a0making it more attractive? Or is it more psychological, like you\u00a0kind of mentioned\u00a0before\u2014just a loss of confidence in economic stability? Or is there even a way to distinguish between the two motivations, and is it\u00a0sort of a\u00a0guessing game?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-5\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I think the key word you mentioned there is traders. Traders very much would be reacting in terms of short-term or live market information. And clearly, from a technical perspective, people are looking at all sorts of different technical indicators that would make gold a buy or a sell at any given moment, based upon economic releases and data releases that are going on. And like I said, gold is something that is used in industry\u2014it\u2019s\u00a0used by the jewelry sector.\u00a0So\u00a0there are a lot of consumers, a lot of buyers for gold around the world who have their own motivations for that.\u00a0I think, though, that\u00a0probably from\u00a0a longer-term investor perspective, investors really think about gold as a permanent piece of property in the portfolio\u2014in a diversified portfolio, certainly. And from that perspective,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0viewed more as a defensive asset versus an offensive asset. And it\u00a0probably\u00a0hasn\u2019t\u00a0felt too much like that over the last few years, given the returns that gold has delivered. However, for most people, they buy gold as a hedge against perceived risk\u2014market risk, systemic risk, et cetera. And\u00a0so\u00a0gold, from a longer-term perspective, is much more like a permanent piece of real estate in the portfolio. And then, if\u00a0you\u2019re\u00a0a longer-term investor, you are less sensitive to short-term events and more focused on using that gold as a hedge against the sensitivity that might affect the broader or bigger part of your portfolio\u2014more, i.e., equities or bonds.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-6\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And that actually leads me perfectly into my next question.&nbsp;And&nbsp;it\u2019s&nbsp;funny\u2014it\u2019s&nbsp;something I&nbsp;didn\u2019t&nbsp;really think too deeply about until I was just doing some research for this podcast. Gold is described as a non-yielding asset, and&nbsp;that\u2019s&nbsp;something I really&nbsp;didn\u2019t&nbsp;think about. Like, it&nbsp;doesn\u2019t&nbsp;pay&nbsp;dividends,&nbsp;it&nbsp;doesn\u2019t&nbsp;pay interest.&nbsp;Could you&nbsp;kind of break&nbsp;down&nbsp;the math? Like, there is an opportunity cost of holding gold. I know&nbsp;you\u2019re&nbsp;saying&nbsp;it\u2019s&nbsp;generally thought&nbsp;of as a hedge for portfolios, but are there times or historical thresholds or real rate levels where we\u2019ve&nbsp;sort of seen&nbsp;this shift into significant gold buying?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-6\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, absolutely.\u00a0So\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0kind of interesting\u00a0because if you think about gold as a non-yielding asset, from a first-principles perspective, sometimes\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0interesting to frame, well, why is that the case? And the answer is that gold has no credit or counterparty risk. A bar of gold\u00a0can\u2019t\u00a0go bankrupt, so therefore there\u00a0shouldn\u2019t\u00a0be any yield because\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0no risk.\u00a0The risk is credit risk that\u2019s introduced when you buy a bond, when you put your money in a savings account at a bank. The\u00a0reason why\u00a0you have a yield is because you are lending that money to somebody\u00a0else\u00a0and\u00a0you\u2019re\u00a0receiving an interest rate in return\u2014so therefore your\u00a0money\u2019s\u00a0at risk.\u00a0So\u00a0from that perspective, gold could have an interest rate. Gold could have a yield if you lent your gold out.\u00a0 But the vast majority of gold buyers don\u2019t want to do that because the\u00a0reason\u00a0they\u2019re buying gold is because they want an asset that doesn\u2019t have credit or counterparty risk. And therefore,\u00a0they\u2019re\u00a0prepared to accept that trade-off\u2014that there is no direct yield\u2014in return for owning an asset of the highest quality that\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0have those risks associated with normal risk assets that we talk about all the time in markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So that\u2019s kind of an interesting thing that I think needs to be said.&nbsp;Your point about what part of the cycle, or different parts of the cycle, makes gold more or less attractive\u2014I think all things being equal, clearly lower interest rates and lower real interest rates in particular\u2014which is nominal interest rates minus the rate of inflation\u2014the lower those go, and for a long period of time (for example, in the last few years they were negative), therefore the cost of owning gold, if you want to look at it like that, was negligible. It was inconsequential because you&nbsp;couldn\u2019t&nbsp;get any return on short-term, at least, interest-bearing assets anyway.&nbsp;But the more real return that\u2019s available in the market\u2014particularly at the shortest end of the curve, being Treasury bonds, et cetera\u2014the more people will have to make that decision about what level of risk they\u2019re comfortable with and whether they\u2019re comfortable with whatever credit is giving them the yield in the market.&nbsp;And then, of course,&nbsp;that\u2019s&nbsp;the classic risk-reward trade-off that you might have. You might have bank accounts that yield&nbsp;a high level, but then the bank&nbsp;that\u2019s&nbsp;offering that might not be as safe as others, and therefore&nbsp;there\u2019s&nbsp;a credit-risk conversation within that.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;I think, all things being equal, the ebbs and flows of gold\u2014outside of shocks or outside of extraordinary market situations\u2014are guided typically by real interest rates. And that makes complete sense. And then you have your investor dollars competing for capital.&nbsp;They\u2019re&nbsp;competing with gold&nbsp;against gold.&nbsp;So&nbsp;in periods where&nbsp;you\u2019re&nbsp;going to have low real rates or lower real rates, the cost of owning gold is negligible. But if you have higher real rates, then&nbsp;there\u2019s&nbsp;a real trade-off or a decision to be made.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-7\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah. And gold gets all the headlines, right? But I want to switch gears a little bit and talk about silver, which is often called gold\u2019s little brother, because the performance dynamics can be quite different.&nbsp;Looking at last year, both metals moved higher, but the gold-silver ratio really fluctuated significantly. Could you explain&nbsp;what\u2019s&nbsp;been driving the performance differential between the two metals last year and&nbsp;kind of starting&nbsp;this year?&nbsp;And is it really primarily the industrial demand component of silver, or are there other factors at play that have caused silver to either lag or recently outperform gold during the different phases of 2025?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-7\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I mean, there are certainly a number of different reasons.&nbsp;I think the first thing to point out is that typically gold and silver prices are highly correlated to each other over the long run.&nbsp;So&nbsp;in a normal market cycle where gold prices are moving up, one would expect to see silver prices&nbsp;move up&nbsp;faster because silver and gold are positively correlated.&nbsp;But because silver is more industrial,&nbsp;it\u2019s&nbsp;a smaller market than gold, and it has more price volatility\u2014it\u2019s&nbsp;a more volatile asset than gold.&nbsp;So&nbsp;all things being equal, in a market where gold prices are rising, you would expect silver prices to outperform, albeit with more volatility.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think what\u00a0was unusual about this market, at least in my opinion, was that\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0been in a structural bull market for gold for some time, and we reached all-time highs or prices in gold that would have been almost inconceivable 10 years ago. And yet, the silver price\u00a0didn\u2019t\u00a0react in the way that you might have thought. In other words, silver prices\u00a0didn\u2019t\u00a0outperform gold and\u00a0didn\u2019t\u00a0react to the upside.\u00a0And I think for a lot of people, this was sort of more about\u00a0<em>when<\/em>\u00a0rather than\u00a0<em>if<\/em>\u00a0silver would react.\u00a0So\u00a0in some respects, I think what\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0seen in silver is a bit of a catch-up in terms of the price action, because gold has been so stratospheric last year and has started to continue\u00a0again into\u00a0this year. I think some of that is a bit of a catch-up from the last few years.\u00a0Now, that being said, there are some really good fundamental reasons as to why silver prices are rising.\u00a0Silver is in a deficit, which means that we have more demand for silver than we have supply. Silver is not a primary mined metal, meaning that\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0a byproduct of other types of metal mining\u2014typically things like copper mining.\u00a0And as everybody knows, there has been a woeful lack of investment in mining over the last decade-plus because prices have been low, and therefore the incentive for miners to commit\u00a0CapEx\u00a0to invest in new production has been low.\u00a0So\u00a0we have a situation where the market is in deficit.\u00a0We suddenly now have big demand levers in terms of the electrification of everything.\u00a0Silver is a critical metal that\u2019s used in the production of electricity, whether it\u2019s in electrical goods generally or whether it\u2019s for production in terms of solar panels, et cetera.\u00a0We have this huge demand to electrify everything in our economy\u2014so therefore, demand for silver.\u00a0And then we have the AI race as well, which is further electronic and technological capacity.\u00a0So\u00a0these things are really hitting at a time\u00a0where\u00a0we\u00a0haven\u2019t\u00a0invested in the production environment. And again,\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0not just a silver story\u2014that\u2019s\u00a0for many metals as well. And in this environment where gold prices are hitting all-time highs, you see that now reflected, I think, in the price of silver as it catches up.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-8\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;skip question seven, because&nbsp;I think you&nbsp;covered a lot of it with that answer, which is fine\u2014perfect, actually. I just wanted you to know, so&nbsp;you\u2019re&nbsp;not wondering why I skipped it.&nbsp;So,&nbsp;Will, for investors who are convinced about the precious metals thesis&nbsp;we\u2019ve&nbsp;just been discussing\u2014the weak dollar, the lower rates, safe-haven demand\u2014how do you think about portfolio allocation between gold and silver? Should investors just view silver as a leverage&nbsp;play&nbsp;on the same themes that drive gold, or from what we discussed with its industrial uses, is it different enough that it deserves its own separate analysis?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-8\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think it\u00a0is.\u00a0And when it comes to gold and silver investors, I\u2019ve been dealing with both of them for many years.\u00a0Typically\u00a0what you find is that some people are very much purists for gold, and they will only think about investing in gold and only have gold in the portfolio.\u00a0Other people are much more open-minded in terms of\u2014if you like gold, chances are you also like\u00a0silver,\u00a0you also like platinum, palladium, et cetera.\u00a0So\u00a0I think it\u00a0really just\u00a0depends on what type of investor you are.\u00a0Silver does have more volatility, so again, it goes back to\u00a0what\u2019s\u00a0the reason that\u00a0you\u2019re\u00a0investing in gold and investing in silver in the first place. If\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0purely from a hedge perspective, silver, I think, deserves more analysis in terms of whether\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0the right fit for a portfolio on a purely risk-off basis.\u00a0But for those that want a bit of a blend of both, or believe strongly that in an environment like this\u2014or certainly what we\u2019ve seen the last few years\u2014where there\u2019s a bid for hard assets, that it\u2019s not just gold prices that are going to go up, it\u2019s going to be silver, and there are all sorts of other hard assets that benefit from this environment as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-9\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Will, you&nbsp;touched on&nbsp;it in the beginning of the podcast\u2014geopolitical risk.&nbsp;We\u2019ve&nbsp;focused more on&nbsp;the monetary&nbsp;policy and&nbsp;the currency&nbsp;dynamics. As you mentioned,&nbsp;we\u2019re&nbsp;really seeing a lot of geopolitical tensions around the world, from ongoing conflicts to trade disputes to concerns about de-dollarization among certain nations.&nbsp;How much of gold\u2019s recent strength do you attribute to these factors versus the purely economic drivers&nbsp;we\u2019ve&nbsp;been discussing? And&nbsp;maybe more&nbsp;importantly, how should investors weigh geopolitical risk when making these allocation decisions about precious metals?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-9\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I think\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0hard to put a number on it specifically, but it clearly is a factor. You saw after the news broke about the Venezuela raid with\u00a0Maduro,\u00a0the gold price took off. The same thing after Russia invaded Ukraine\u2014and I could go on and on in terms of these specific examples.\u00a0So\u00a0we definitely acknowledge that there\u2019s a premium in there for geopolitical tensions, for conflicts, for crises. It\u2019s difficult to always say exactly what that might be, but it\u2019s a significant factor and a significant reason as to why people invest in gold\u2014because again, it goes back to the hedge argument that you just never know when these things could escalate, how they could escalate, and how they spill over.\u00a0And therefore, what is the collateral damage to your portfolio? Typically, normally, the larger part of your portfolio\u2014if\u00a0you\u2019re\u00a0talking about a gold\u00a0allocation of\u00a0somewhere between 5% to 10%\u2014by definition, you have 90% of your portfolio or more\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0going to be in other asset classes.\u00a0So\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0the biggest risk that\u00a0you\u2019re\u00a0holding, and therefore these kinds of events typically will\u00a0impact\u00a0that part of the portfolio a lot more. And I think when we look at the different conflicts around the world, like you said\u2014whether it\u2019s wars, whether it\u2019s the threat of wars, interventions, whether it\u2019s de-globalization, an upending of traditional norms or world order\u2014all of these things basically come back to one word, which is uncertainty.\u00a0And I think that gold loves\u2014or thrives on\u2014uncertainty. And\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0something that portfolio managers and investors\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0like from a longer-term investing perspective. And therefore, in an environment where there\u2019s uncertainty, people\u00a0perhaps increase\u00a0exposure to defensive assets such as gold.\u00a0And therefore, that\u2019s the evaluation you have to make.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-10\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And Will, this is great.&nbsp;I\u2019ve got&nbsp;one final question. We covered a ton of ground today on gold and silver and what makes them attractive. But I also want to talk about&nbsp;the&nbsp;<em>how<\/em>, right? So for investors who may have only invested in stocks and bonds traditionally, could you kind of high-level explain the key differences that would help them understand whether it\u2019s physically backed precious metals ETFs versus, say, mining stocks, or even futures contracts, or even physical bullion stored at home?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-10\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>No, absolutely.\u00a0So\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0funny\u2014we\u2019re\u00a0talking about the 1970s. If you were an investor in the 1970s, of course there were no gold ETFs.\u00a0So\u00a0your option, really, from an investment perspective\u2014certainly from a portfolio perspective\u2014was only to buy mining stocks.\u00a0And mining stocks have been around a long time. There are\u00a0different flavors\u00a0of mining stocks in terms of large companies, small companies that focus purely on gold or purely on silver, to\u00a0large diversified\u00a0mining corporations and conglomerates.\u00a0But all that being said, they\u2019re not a direct representation of the gold price.\u00a0In other words, if the price of gold goes up 10%, the price of\u2014you name it\u2014a gold mining company\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0automatically go up by 10%.\u00a0And\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0due to\u00a0a number of\u00a0factors: the company\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0directly\u00a0represent\u00a0an investment in gold, because there\u2019s operating leverage, typically there\u2019s management risk, there\u2019s project risk\u2014there are all sorts of other things that go into that.\u00a0So gold mining companies historically have been said to be a leveraged play on gold. All things being equal, in an environment where gold prices are going up, gold mining companies have the potential to do better than gold. However, that\u2019s not always worked out that way, because typically what happens is that in a gold bull market, these companies face cost pressures\u2014whether it\u2019s the cost of energy going up, which is a huge input in terms of mining expenses, the cost of labor, et cetera\u2014and therefore sometimes they don\u2019t get the benefit and underperform the gold price.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buying physical bars and coins has been around forever.&nbsp;That\u2019s&nbsp;still&nbsp;a very popular&nbsp;thing to do. You can buy gold&nbsp;coins,&nbsp;buy gold bars. Those are typically all subject to premiums and discounts.&nbsp;So&nbsp;when you buy from anybody\u2014a coin dealer, a coin merchant, et cetera\u2014typically expect to pay a premium to the gold price. And then if you sell it back, expect to receive a discount. And that spread can be quite high, depending on&nbsp;what\u2019s&nbsp;going on in the market.&nbsp;ETFs, which came along in the early 2000s, have become by&nbsp;far and away&nbsp;the most&nbsp;popular way&nbsp;for people to invest in gold. And when it comes to physical gold, the proposition is&nbsp;very simple: a gold ETF, assuming&nbsp;it\u2019s&nbsp;backed by physical gold, just tracks the gold price. If the gold price goes up by 10%, it tracks it up. If it goes down by 10%, it tracks it down by&nbsp;10%, and&nbsp;typically charges a low fee for doing so.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are a number of gold ETFs.&nbsp;We have one of our own at&nbsp;GraniteShares, but there are a number out there, and&nbsp;it\u2019s&nbsp;a very efficient way to track the gold price. And I think most importantly, in terms of&nbsp;what\u2019s&nbsp;made them so successful, the innovation was to allow you to own gold in a portfolio\u2014pure gold in a portfolio\u2014for the first time, versus proxy investments like gold stocks. Or if you bought coins yourself, you&nbsp;couldn\u2019t&nbsp;own that in your portfolio; it would have to be outside of your portfolio.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-11\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Will, this has been great. Thank you so much for stopping by the&nbsp;<em>Interactive Brokers Podcast<\/em>&nbsp;studio. For our listeners, you can find more from Will Rhind at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.graniteshares.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">www.graniteshares.com<\/a>. Also, on our website, if you click on Education, you can find more contributions from&nbsp;GraniteShares&nbsp;as well. Thank you, Will.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-rhind-nbsp-11\"><strong>Will Rhind<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks, Jeff. Pleasure having me. Thank you.&nbsp;<br><br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeff Praissman is joined by Will Rhind of GraniteShares to break down the evolving relationship between gold and silver, and why silver may be positioned to outperform in the current macro environment. 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