{"id":237659,"date":"2026-01-21T12:54:20","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T17:54:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237659"},"modified":"2026-01-21T15:41:54","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T20:41:54","slug":"opinions-and-expectations-for-econ-data-expiring-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/opinions-and-expectations-for-econ-data-expiring-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinions and Expectations for Econ Data Expiring Tomorrow: Jan. 21, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tomorrow\u2019s delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for October is expected to come in at 2.7% and the undervalued contract as it relates to the instrument is the \u201cYes\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=726203930%7C20260122%7C2.5%7COctober%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.5%<\/a>. The well-telegraphed print, in light of the indices for consumers and producers serving as inputs and being released much earlier in the month, has an incredibly narrow path to arriving at a figure that low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"105\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture1-13-1100x105.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-237663 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture1-13-1100x105.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture1-13-700x67.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture1-13-300x29.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture1-13-768x73.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture1-13-1536x147.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture1-13.jpg 1663w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/105;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hong-kong-cpi-expected-at-1-2-but-its-historically-volatile\"><strong>Hong Kong CPI Expected at 1.2%, But Its Historically Volatile<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though none of the seven forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll envision a number of 1.5% or higher for tomorrow&#8217;s Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (they\u2019re between 1.1% and 1.4%), this indicator is historically volatile and the \u201cYes\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=725452893%7C20260122%7C1.4%7CDecember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1.4%<\/a> only costs what I consider to be an undervalued $0.05. I think it should cost closer to $0.20 in light of the wild swings that have materially deviated from economist expectations over the years.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"102\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture2-11-1100x102.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-237664 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture2-11-1100x102.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture2-11-700x65.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture2-11-300x28.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture2-11-768x71.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture2-11.jpg 1330w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/102;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-growth-expectations-are-strong\"><strong>Growth Expectations Are Strong<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The 13-week moving average of the Dallas Fed\u2019s Economic Index is running at 2.23% but ForecastTrader participants think there\u2019s a good chance that this year will feature a reacceleration in growth after last week\u2019s strong 2.43% reading. Indeed, for tomorrow\u2019s result, investors are pricing in <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=813720010%7C20260122%7C2.4%7CJanuary%2017,%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">43%<\/a> odds of a number north of 2.4%, which would mark the second print in a row above that threshold, which is a pretty tall bar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"108\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture3-6-1100x108.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-237665 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture3-6-1100x108.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture3-6-700x69.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture3-6-300x30.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture3-6-768x76.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture3-6.jpg 1322w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/108;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-claims-have-been-all-over-the-place\"><strong>Claims Have Been All Over the Place<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Initial unemployment <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20260122%7C210000%7CJanuary%2017,%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">claims<\/a> have been all over the place lately, as is typical surrounding holiday months. Emblematic of the volatility were the last three months serving numbers as high as 237k for the week ended Dec. 6 or as low as 192k for the seven-day period culminating on Nov. 29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"105\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture4-3-1100x105.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-237666 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture4-3-1100x105.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture4-3-700x67.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture4-3-300x29.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture4-3-768x73.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture4-3.jpg 1332w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/105;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-can-canada-new-homes-come-in-positive\"><strong>Can Canada New Homes Come in Positive?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s New Housing Price Index hasn\u2019t come in positive since February, but our investors see a path back to growth in December. Indeed, the \u201cYes\u201d at -0.1% signals <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=787272475%7C20260122%7C-0.1%7CDecember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">61%<\/a> odds of a figure landing at 0 or above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"105\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture5-4-1100x105.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-237667 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture5-4-1100x105.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture5-4-700x67.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture5-4-300x29.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture5-4-768x74.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/Picture5-4.jpg 1326w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/105;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 21, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow\u2019s delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for October is expected to come in at 2.7% and the undervalued contract as it relates to the instrument is the \u201cYes\u201d at 2.5%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218119,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,8,9,3],"tags":[458,21048],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-237659","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-hong-kong","13":"tag-personal-consumption-expenditures-index","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Opinions and 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