{"id":237655,"date":"2026-01-22T09:45:29","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T14:45:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237655"},"modified":"2026-01-23T04:14:37","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T09:14:37","slug":"are-markets-mispricing-geopolitical-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/are-markets-mispricing-geopolitical-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Are markets mispricing geopolitical risk?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>With crises in Venezuela and Iran continuing to unfold, are markets weighing geopolitical risks appropriately?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-market-recap\"><strong>Market recap<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After slipping early on following news the Fed and Chair Powell were under investigation from the DoJ, major U.S. equities see-sawed to post modest declines on the week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the major U.S. equities were in the red, the TSX posted a 1.3% gain. Only the Nikkei (+3.8%) outperformed as a snap election looks imminent in that country.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy, materials and industrials drove the gains in the TSX, while consumer staples, discretionary, and tech underperformed. In contrast, consumer staples led the pack for the S&amp;P 500, followed by industrials and energy, although they weren\u2019t enough to offset big losses driven by financials and banks (see above credit card cap).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-geopolitics\"><strong>Geopolitics<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After weeks of pointed rhetoric, the Trump administration now appears to be moderating its comments regarding Iran. But given the ongoing Greenland-related tensions and the recent U.S. military action in Venezuela, are markets weighing geopolitical risks appropriately? At this stage, it does not appear that markets are pricing in the chance of&nbsp;<em>more&nbsp;<\/em>geopolitical risks. However, these risks tend to be more short-term in nature, so not pricing them in does have a certain logic. That said, there are some pockets of the markets where we think geopolitical risks should be taken more seriously\u2014for example, oil and supply chains. In general, we expect continuing volatility to create some trading opportunities for nimble investors, as well as hedging opportunities for those seeking portfolio protection. Entering 2026, geopolitics was one of the major risks we identified. That\u2019s why we\u2019ve ensured that we have appropriate hedges in our portfolios, including gold for uncertainty and targeted options for specific events\u2014for instance, the possibility of a spike in oil prices. In the past, those hedges have played out very well for us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line: While markets may be correct in not pricing in geopolitical risks too broadly, we do think that investors should monitor how the risks may impact specific areas of the market, like oil.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-u-s-banks\"><strong>U.S. banks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. banks have begun to report their Q4 earnings, and so far, the initial reactions haven\u2019t been positive. Some of them have seen some reversal, but not fully. Our view is that it\u2019s important to see the full picture before coming to any broad conclusions about the state of the American economy. Companies like JP Morgan tend to have a good pulse on the broader economic situation. But it\u2019s also important to hear from transaction-based Financials like Visa and Mastercard, as they provide a snapshot of the consumer spending environment. Results from regional banks can also provide a window into whether trends are broad-based or not. So far, the announcements haven\u2019t included any major surprises\u2014the consumer still appears to be slowing down a bit, but isn\u2019t under massive pressure. Crucially, there is also no indication that significant job losses are on the horizon, which would likely bleed over into consumer spending. It is also worth noting that some of the market\u2019s negative reaction can be attributed to disappointing trading revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line: We\u2019d like to see more earnings announcements before drawing conclusions about the state of U.S. economy, but so far, there have been no major red flags.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-small-caps\"><strong>Small caps<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With the small-cap Russell 2000 Index on a record run, is it time to consider a rotation to small caps (meaning companies with a market capitalization of less that $2 billion USD)? Though it was not one of our five investment themes for the year, our house view does have a slight tilt to small caps. There are a few reasons for optimism: the&nbsp;<em>Big Beautiful Bill<\/em>&nbsp;is likely to provide a tailwind for businesses, while interest rate cuts are likely to be disproportionately beneficial to smaller companies. There is also the potential for the U.S. economy to reaccelerate, in our view. Toward the end of 2025, hirings began to drop off. But in the early part of this year, they appear to have picked back up. It is still too early to know whether this will turn into a real trend, but as a single data point, it is an encouraging sign. Overall, we expect small caps to do well. You still want to own large-cap names, but in areas like Technology and artificial intelligence (A.I.), we think it\u2019s worth considering moving down a spectrum to mid- and small-cap companies with more reasonable valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line: We think a small tilt toward small caps makes sense given the potential for a positive U.S. economic surprise.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Positioning<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For more insights on market risks and opportunities, including a video replay of my recent BMO GAM 2026 market outlook call, explore our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/our-2026-investment-outlooks\">2026 Investment Outlook Centre&nbsp;<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted January 19, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-january-19-are-markets-mispricing-geopolitical-risk\/\">Are markets mispricing geopolitical risk?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Disclosures:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The viewpoints expressed by the Portfolio Manager represents their assessment of the markets at the time of publication. Those views are subject to change without notice at any time without any kind of notice. The information provided herein does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy, or an offer to sell securities nor should the information be relied upon as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This communication is intended for informational purposes only.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BMO Global Asset Management is a brand name under which BMO Asset Management Inc. and BMO Investments Inc. operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are cautioned not to rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. In connection with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the areas of risk described in the most recent simplified prospectus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is for information purposes. The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice to any party. Investments should be evaluated relative to the individual\u2019s investment objectives and professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Commissions, management fees and expenses (if applicable) all may be associated with investments in mutual funds. Trailing commissions may be associated with investments in certain series of securities of mutual funds. Please read the fund facts, ETF facts or prospectus of the relevant mutual fund before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to change and\/or elimination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a summary of the risks of an investment in the BMO Mutual Funds, please see the specific risks set out in the prospectus. ETF Series of the BMO Mutual Funds trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade at a discount to their net asset value, which may increase the risk of loss. Distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to change and\/or elimination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BMO Mutual Funds are managed by BMO Investments Inc., which is an investment fund manager and a separate legal entity from Bank of Montreal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00ae\/\u2122Registered trademarks\/trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under licence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With crises in Venezuela and Iran continuing to unfold, are markets weighing geopolitical risks 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