{"id":237593,"date":"2026-01-20T12:52:43","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T17:52:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=237593"},"modified":"2026-01-20T15:09:29","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T20:09:29","slug":"hassetts-fed-odds-drop-to-low-of-9-greenland-us-remains-near-40","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/hassetts-fed-odds-drop-to-low-of-9-greenland-us-remains-near-40\/","title":{"rendered":"Hassett\u2019s Fed Odds Drop to Low of 9%, Greenland US Remains Near 40%: Jan. 20, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett\u2019s chances of being nominated as Fed Chair fell to a recent low of 9%<\/a> as investors digested President Trump\u2019s comments on Friday in which the commander in chief suggested that he prefers him to remain in his ongoing role. Former and current Fed governors Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller carry probabilities of 56%<\/a> and 12%<\/a>, meanwhile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Weekend Drama Didn\u2019t Move Greenland US Odds Much<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

An eventful weekend in which President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on eight European nations if an agreement isn\u2019t completed that would allow the US to purchase Greenland didn\u2019t move the odds much in our prediction market. Indeed, the current probability of 40%<\/a>, as it relates to whether any portion of Greenland will become a US state, territory or federal jurisdiction by year-end 2028 remains below the all-time high of 51% reached last week on Jan. 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 20, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett\u2019s chances of being nominated as Fed Chair fell to a recent low of 9%, as investors digested President Trump\u2019s comments on Friday in which the commander in chief suggested that he prefers him to remain in his ongoing role. 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